The longer ahead you look at the GFS model, the less reliable it becomes. So, best is to look at the model less than 24 hours or even better less than a few hours before departure. Compare that with the latest IR cloudtop temp sat images and you get some sort of idea of what to expect. Agree: the cirrus is not there and as I said already: I don’t like to fly in clouds for long times, even if they are colder than -20 degrees Celsius. And yes, there is no guarantee of what you get. That is why you go up and see for yourself and if you don’t like it have an alternative plan or stay home or go back.
achimha wrote:
I have observed many overly optimistic depictions by OGIMETAdding salt in the wound:
I like OGIMET for being optimistic
All these gramets work when they work and then everybody thinks they are great
The rest of the time the presentation is basically useless. A lot of mid level cloud is missing, for example.
Windy.com is probably the best we have right now.
Peter wrote:
Windy.com is probably the best we have right now.
I agree. In addition, you can cross-check several weather models and see the level of overlapping to give you the picture of certainty.