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91UL / UL91 / 96UL / UL96 / UL98 etc (merged thread)

What’s important in the general picture, and in the future, is this.

TEL works today because the amount used is insignificant, and it largely goes under the radar politically (no 18 year old environmentalist has any clue what TEL is). The only thing that will happen if we put pressure on 100UL (of some sort), for “environmental reasons”, is politicians will say “What? no reduction in CO2? 100% fossil fuel?That’s not environmental friendly – at all”. The thing is, they are 100% right. Then if you start explaining stuff, you also will have to explain what the TEL substitute is and does regarding the environment. You also have to come up with some statistics, data and numbers, for the actual usage. How many persons need TEL in Europe today? And what for?

The whole thing is just weird. Nobody sees TEL as a problem today. No politicians, not the public, not even the aviation authorities (both the FAA and EASA are more like “Oh please, why must you keep on whining about this”). But for some strange reason it is seen as a problem for pilots, while the real problem, CO2 emissions isn’t.

In the mean time, Diamond, one of the most successful GA manufacturers today has a whole fleet of aircraft that can use any SAF that the industry can cook up. Rotax, the most selling aviation piston engine manufacturer today, can use fuel up to 10% alcohol (SAF in practice), and none of them needs TEL whatsoever. And if that’s not enough, unleaded AVGAS exists, it’s readily available, and can be uses for 90% of piston powered GA (excluding diesel engines).

For most cases this G100UL is a solution to a problem that exists exclusively between the ears of a few pilots. Rather funny. If and when it becomes available, then we will see what it costs. How is this going to work anyway. Will this fuel be imported from the US? How much is that going to cost? It’s patented. Will BP, Total and Shell just sit still and let Gami take over the world? All it takes is a phone call from Shell to some hot shot in EU telling they have this new aviation fuel that will reduce CO2 emissions by 20%, because they have, it’s used in gasoline. Then we will start having fuel problems.

The elephant is the circulation
ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway

Those figures are surprising to say the least… maybe worldwide if at all, source?

This is the figure mentioned, for worldwide, many times over the years. I have zero doubt that it does not represent Europe, but European GA is around 1/10 to 1/5 of US GA. Numbers can be found here. And then there is the rest of the world (GA is pretty big in Africa for example – take a look at the AIR BP booklet) so Europe is even smaller.

The reality is that US is full of planes which are either turbo or 9:1 CR or higher. Lots of SR22s, all of which need 100LL. Lots of twins; MEPs in Europe died over past 20 years (except small numbers of DA42s) as long term owners got out of GA. Europe is different; I never disputed that. Not just a different makeup of the engine types but also a lot of low time engines, hangar queens, and very low time mission profiles in some aeroclub communities. The US is full of owners who go places. We have to accept reality of business which is that US is what drives the market. If somebody here thinks Europe is more important than the US, they need to ask who builds and certifies most of the engines! And the restrictive practices in European noncertified flight and long term parking privileges mean that the number of people who can fly say an RV is always going to be limited.

“100UL” will be driven (or not) from the US. If it happens there, it will happen here too, soon afterwards. And it will take over from 100LL and dominate the GA airport scene just like 100LL does today. Other fuels will carry on in small markets, just like they do today. Some of them due to a self-contained pilot community where one oil company dominates, some in a country where there is a high acceptance of high taxation in return for reducing or eliminating lead, some in areas where there is a lot of particular type engines, etc.

That’s only one page out of six. But yes, no turbo models.

I was not quoting any document. I have this from US engine shops, as to what runs off 91UL. 9:1 is the max CR they accept as long term reliable (no detonation) and even 9:1 is buildable only for Experimental engines. 9.5:1 will not run on 91UL.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

A tactical approach and a strategic view can coexist. Using car fuel now because what you can get now is OK for your individual use does not preclude recognizing now that a secure and widely available aviation fuel that’s useable by all would be a good thing. Especially after non-alcohol auto fuel is long gone, and unless you want to be limited to flying a fuel injected Rotax that (as the British might say) can’t pull the skin off a rice pudding.

Last Edited by Silvaire at 15 Sep 19:46

Well, we could finesse on the subject endlessly, could we not?

We (luckily) don’t have a crystal ball, nor are we in a position to really influence the system. GA is more and more becoming a survival game, and anything is possible, the more so here on the old continent.
So, for now I’ll keep enjoying my flying whilst burning the precious dino juice the most efficiently I can (Carson speed), noting that nothing lasts for ever

Dan
ain't the Destination, but the Journey
LSZF, Switzerland

The appearance of an Avgas replacement would not necessarily mean a killing of Mogas… I believe there would be quite some resistance.

If auto fuel is all E10 or more by then, which it will be, ‘Mogas’ would become a specialty fuel. I wouldn’t myself bet on anybody wanting to sell two specialty fuels. Mogas as it is now sold at airports in a limited number of European countries is just relabeled auto fuel.

Should Mogas disappear, would lead to a surge of Autofuel (Super 98 for instance) users.

That’s going to have alcohol too. I went through this decades ago, the so-called environmentalists will have their way with auto fuel, and if you don’t want alcohol at the airport I think it will be Avgas or nothing.

Or perhaps as in my area, you can buy a boat for the sole purpose of filling it up at the dock from the last remaining source of non-alcohol auto fuel. The boat fuel market was large enough to preserve a specialty fuel for boats, and once you’re away from the dock who knows what might happen… But that’s a complicated way to buy fuel for a plane

I’m therefore happy that 100LL is widely available at almost every airport I’ll use for a reasonable taxed price, €1.34 per liter today, and it’s a reliable source of supply for everybody who flies. If/when they take the lead out and produce a drop in replacement that’ll be OK for every plane too. No pointless chaos.

Last Edited by Silvaire at 15 Sep 19:54

The appearance of an Avgas replacement would not necessarily mean a killing of Mogas… I believe there would be quite some resistance, unless the new fuel would be sold at the price Mogas is selling. Dream on

Should Mogas disappear, would lead to a surge of Autofuel (Super 98 for instance) users.

What will probably happen is that Mogas will stay, and remain cheaper by some, whilst the Avgas replacement will replace… the Avgas.

Dan
ain't the Destination, but the Journey
LSZF, Switzerland

Indefinitely means nothing, the more so in the aviation world

It means something in my aviation world, and my investments in aviation wouldn’t exist unless I thought they would be stable for decades. Yes, Europe is by contrast chaotic but think the goal of all concerned should be to reduce chaos in aviation fuel supply, not increase it. It is a basic commodity.

And again, assuming an Avgas replacement fuel becomes available, do you think all these Rotax and Lyco/Conti users now using Mogas will merrily jump on that new and more expensive gas bandwagon? Why would they?

Because if they want to run fuel without alcohol, that will likely be their only choice IMO. Auto fuel without alcohol will continue to decrease in availability until it is gone.

Last Edited by Silvaire at 15 Sep 18:50

Indefinitely means nothing, the more so in the aviation world

Facts are that we have Mogas available at many fields, and those are becoming more frequent as demand rises. This rise is certainly also due to the wider use of Rotax equipped machines.
So, to answer your question, yes.

And again, assuming an Avgas replacement fuel becomes available, do you think all these Rotax and Lyco/Conti users now using Mogas will merrily jump on that new and more expensive gas bandwagon? Why would they?

Not to forget a good proportion of aircraft flying with Autofuel, right now, the more so in the UL world.

Dan
ain't the Destination, but the Journey
LSZF, Switzerland

If G100UL, or any similar fuel hits the market, I doubt people now using Mogas will cough up for an Avgas replacement fuel which will for sure be more expensive

Again, the question: do you think Mogas (E0 non-alcohol auto fuel sold at airports) is or will become widely available across Europe and (more to the point) remain that way indefinitely when car use is switching under pressure to E10, and likely to E15 in the future?

Last Edited by Silvaire at 15 Sep 18:34

Absolutely, no turbos and no hi compression in the lists.
Although I know of a few people with such engines taking off and landing on the one tank filled with Avgas, and switching to other tank filled with Mogas for the cruise portion of the flight…

Peter wrote:

And, worldwide, the above burn ~2/3 of 100LL.

Those figures are surprising to say the least… maybe worldwide if at all, source?
My field might not be representative, but of those 180 aircraft based here, around 10 are turboed, and about 12 are running on a > 8.5 CR.
Even if the above figures are true, that still leaves a big chunk of engines (albeit not aircraft) being able to use Mogas or Autogas.

If G100UL, or any similar fuel hits the market, I doubt people now using Mogas will cough up for an Avgas replacement fuel which will for sure be more expensive…

Dan
ain't the Destination, but the Journey
LSZF, Switzerland
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