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A thought experiment - Leaving the EU

As we all know, the current UK government has promised a referendum on EU membership. A thought experiment: Scotland votes for independence, which means the referendum is England/Wales/NI only, almost guaranteeing a win for the "out" vote, since anti-EU sentiment seems by far strongest in England. Referendum happens, UK votes to leave the EU so we end up with the odd situation of Scotland being an EU country but the remainder of the UK being out.

So for aviation, do you wager things for the UK pilot will get better or worse?

Questions to speculate:

  • Would you now need to fill out a GAR to go to and from Scotland?
  • Would the CAA roll back EASA regulations, and return things like the UK IMC rating, and return regulation to pre-JAA days? Or would they likely just follow EASA anyway, but now with no input to the process? (In particular do you reckon the CAA would roll back the new EASA rules about N reg aircraft)
  • Would countries like France reverse things such as the agreement now that UK permit aircraft can fly to France with no bureaucracy?
  • What registration letter would an independent Scotland likely get?
Andreas IOM

I don't think there is a direct link between EASA membership and EU membership....eg Norway. I think it highly unlikely that Scotland will become independent...I think it highly unlikely that the UK will leave the EU....but if they did I see no reason why they would automatically be out of EASA

EGPD / OMDW / YPJT, United Kingdom

but if they did I see no reason why they would automatically be out of EASA

In other words - the worst of both worlds, outside the EU and stuck with EASA.

Andreas IOM

Indeed! In fact worse....the none EU members of EASA have no voting rights...

EGPD / OMDW / YPJT, United Kingdom

This thread has just brought to mind a peculiarity with an insurance quote received from a UK broker. Essentially as my aircraft is NOT on the UK register (EU country register and a/c resident in UK) I am told I shall have to pay "tax" on the premium at the rates ruling in the country of registration. My current insurer does not do this and I really don't see any reason why this should apply. Your thoughts please.

UK, United Kingdom

If Scotland becomes independent it will automatically be out of EU and it will have to start process of joining if wants to become a member. That's highly unlike scenario. Same as UK leaving EU. UK obviously likes its role of constant considering being in or out (like a shy bride - as we say in Balkans - I don't know if such saying exists in English). It gives sense of ability to choose and sense of importance to politicians.

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

I've no idea how likely Scotland is to vote for independence or the UK is to vote to leave the EU.

What do the polls day?

If Scotland becomes independent it will automatically be out of EU and it will have to start process of joining if wants to become a member.

I think that very unlikely. The EU does not want anyone leaving. A method will be found to keep them in, if nothing more than save some face if the rest of the UK leaves.

Like the others, I don't think the UK will leave EASA. That decision is with the government, and not the people.

The biggest problem will be international travel. Now you will be entering and leaving the EU on every trip which may mean an end to GARs and a return to using only designated ports.

For us in Ireland it would also be a right headache. I can see most trips trying not to land in the UK to avoid such hassles.

EIWT Weston

I think that very unlikely. The EU does not want anyone leaving. A method will be found to keep them in, if nothing more than save some face if the rest of the UK leaves.

What I wrote is status according current legislation. If and when it's changed it will be different. Until then it is how it is.

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

Just a few thoughts on this...

Regardless of whether the UK leaves the EU (and I don't think it will; I think at the last moment the public will back off from jumping off what will be presented to them as the cliff) I don't see the UK CAA undoing the mass of EASA regs which they have implemented. Look at Norway and Switzerland, who have taken EASA FCL on board enthusiastically.

I don't think there is such a thing as "EASA membership". EASA draws up the regs, the EU turns them into law, and by the UK being in the EU they become legally binding on the UK. So if the UK was out of the EU it could ignore these directives but I don't think it would do so in the end.

If the UK left the EU, I don't see how this would affect the GAR system because presently this is 100% good for direct flights between any UK farm strip and Croatia, or the Peoples' Republic of Upper Volta which is not (yet) in the EU. What would happen is that flights from some places (Greece comes to mind) would need a longer Customs PNR to fly back to the UK - as they currently need for a flight to say Macedonia (FYROM to give its correct Greek name ), Albania, or until very recently Croatia.

On an N-reg you pay less than on a G-reg because you don't pay the 5% UK insurance premium tax. It's nonsense to suggest one pays the State of Registry taxes on this.

On the EU leaving thingy, my view is that this would destroy the EU as we know it (because everybody else who is relevant would also leave), it would massively degrade Germany's ability to export (the € would hugely appreciate against the $ etc) and therefore this will never be allowed to happen.

An interesting thought experiment however

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

On the EU leaving thingy, my view is that this would destroy the EU as we know it (because everybody else who is relevant would also leave), it would massively degrade Germany's ability to export (the € would hugely appreciate against the $ etc) and therefore this will never be allowed to happen.

Assuming the EU were to fracture under the weight of excess central power, Germany's ability to export would be compromised by revitalized industry in those European countries to which they now predominantly export. Germany is the third largest exporting country in the world (after China and the US), but 70% of those exports are within Europe, to countries which have increasingly shifted to German products since the elimination of trade barriers. Only 8% goes to the US.

The way to leave the EU is to leave the EU... using your feet and commercial air transport.

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