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A thought experiment - Leaving the EU

When I said $ I didn't mean the USA really. I meant markets such as China which trade externally mostly in $ and who are going flat out for BMWs etc.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Asia (as a whole) takes about 16% of German exports.

Switzerland has a very similar economic structure and export orientation as Germany but with its own -- strong -- currency. There is no direct link between Euro and strong exports and Deutschmarks and weak exports. The Deutschmark has constantly appreciated against the rest of the now Euro countries and yet the market share of the German economy has steadily increased compared to the surrounding countries. You need a weak currency to export non competitive products but competitive products don't.

And don't forget that labor costs in Germany are among the highest in the EU.

but competitive products don't.

Exactly.

EDDS - Stuttgart

There is no direct link between Euro and strong exports and Deutschmarks and weak exports

The current situation removed trade barriers between EU countries, helping German industry (which makes good products) increase its sales within the EU. Meanwhile, tariffs for import into the EU as a whole were preserved... which is helpful for internal EU sales of products that are relatively expensive, as German products are. Not many Japanese cars in Europe despite their arguably higher value, although more as time goes on.

Meanwhile the Euro imposed a high value currency on all European countries. That disproportionately restricted export sales for companies and countries focused more on selling price sensitive products outside of the EU, i.e. not Germany. Those companies suffered from the reduction of extra-EU sales. Some went away and some have been bought by German companies, which then use them to supplement their own products, similar but a little cheaper on the basis of lower local labor costs.

Finally, Germany loaned money to European export market governments, lightening the load on their tax payers, making them less price sensitive and therefore more likely to buy upmarket German products. With that sustained long enough, the investment pays off: local competition diminishes and buyers come your way for the long term.

Overall, I think that is the recipe for eliminating non-German controlled competition for sales within the EU, which is the end game :-) Nothing ever changes in Europe - grandiose sounding political charades thinly veiling national interests. The goal is to wrap up the EU market and whatever might be happening in the outside world is not the issue - only 30% of German exports leave Europe.

One plus of Scotland leaving the UK, in theory, is that the rest of the UK can get some daylight back as its time zone is organized for their benefit. We could be synchronized with our near continent neighbours. We have the current situation to accommodate the Scots.

Propman
Nuthampstead , United Kingdom

With the Scottish financial industry saying they will move to England in the case of independence, I don’t think Scotland is going to actually do it because it would become a post-reunification DDR type wasteland but one without the trillion Euros sunk in by Kohl.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

They have petrol exports instead – for the time they last.

EBZH Kiewit, Belgium

“Germany is the third largest exporting country in the world (after China and the US), but 70% of those exports are within Europe, to countries which have increasingly shifted to German products since the elimination of trade barriers. Only 8% goes to the US.”

Actually the correct way to put it is 56% to the EU (by far not 70%) and 44% to the rest of the world. The proportion going to the US is not necessarily relevant except for a supposed contrast between what is exported to the US and what is exported to the EU. That figure per se doesn’t mean anything. It’s like saying 19% of the US exports go to Canada… so what.

If you really wanted to point out something you’d rather point out that Germany exports +/- the same amount in c.i.f. terms as the US does despite a rather smaller GDP

“Finally, Germany loaned money to European export market governments, lightening the load on their tax payers, making them less price sensitive and therefore more likely to buy upmarket German products. With that sustained long enough, the investment pays off: local competition diminishes and buyers come your way for the long term.”

Actually it doesn’t really work that way. Diminish local competition therefore local jobs and the potential customer base will also diminish.

Which European export market governments did Germany lend money to?

Last Edited by Shorrick_Mk2 at 01 May 09:19

the rest of the UK can get some daylight back

That sounds like folly to me. As things stand now, I am supposed to set my clocks two hours apart from Greenwich time, though I am barely 16 minutes off. Your idea seems to be extending this ridicule into the UK. Why? What’s wrong with “noon” i.e. 12:00 corresponding to “midday” i.e. the sun at its highest?

If you want more daylight it suffices to get out of bed earlier.

EBZH Kiewit, Belgium
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