As Peter said, passing through a cold front with an occluded up north is a place where you don’t want to be.
The thing is that you need to know around zero about met theory (like me!) because the data is on the internet, and in this case would have been a total absolute no-go. No interpretation needed. Exactly the same with the N2195B and no doubt countless others.
Unfortunately radar and sferics and IR are almost unknown in the pilot community.
BTW from here you can get the IR image too. Not sure I got the time right; it was probably earlier
If it was an engine problem (as mentioned above), I don’t understand all this VFR into IMC speculation ?
The flight path is certainly more consistent with an engine failure than a CFIT or loss of control.
Thanks Peter for posting the maps.The question remains what did the PIC have as forecasts.
The thing is that you need to know around zero about met theory (like me!) because the data is on the internet,
+ 1 !
I just completed 2 very long x-countries, Paris – Portimao – Paris, VFR . Not possible sans excellent Mx Info.
My arsenal for Mx is : MeteoX.com , GRAMET / OGIMET and Met Map for last minute & in-flight METARs .
>>The flight path is certainly more consistent with an engine failure than a CFIT or loss of control.
In what way?
The question is also whether 50 USG of fuel as stipulated above is enough for this trip. While there was a fire, I still wonder. Possibly one tank dry and the other few fuel would still make a fire possible but may have caused a failure nonetheless. And in the stress situation they were in, switching tanks and restarting at low alt may take too much time.
>>No, Mooney, you cannot (and should not!) legislate for stupidity
Well… Isn’t most regulation done along these thoughts? Why have speed limits? Because people would drive 150 in a closed village if there was no sheriff to tell them not to?
We are not Vulcans. People will do whatever they want unless it’s reglemented and they know there are sanctions if they do it anyway.
Alpine flying is dangerous and VFR in unsuitable conditions even worse so. Maybe the current regulation is unsuitable to keep people from killing themselfs and others so we need stricter weather rules? Such as ATC or met authorities rejecting flight plans or even closing off airspace with GAFOR X or similar?
I am at a loss but one thing is clear: we are loosing too many people to weather accidents.
The policy is based mostly on 3rd party risk. In GA this is negligible – apart from passengers, and they are assumed to have assessed the (greater) risk.
Otherwise, you would ban scuba, climbing, even (or especially!) sex
We lose too many people to wx accidents because PPL training is unsuitable for the use to which the privilege is put, by the small % of people who actually get off their backside and do something interesting with their bit of paper. For all those instructors who diligently try to teach people how to fly safely, the product/service sold is still no good for actually going from A to B other than when doing trivial “club” flights i.e. 50-100nm and on nice days.
Is ‘never cross a front in a GA plane’ a good rule of thumb? Just early in IR training at the moment. I have all the relatively useless theory but no practical experience yet.