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The end of the A380

Lucius wrote:

I can see the possibility that in 10 years from now, Airbus turned out to be correct about hub & spoke, but failed to time.

I’m not sure hub or not has anything to do with it, not directly. A hub is naturally a place where the majority of passengers fly to/from in any case, especially from smaller places. Thus “non hub travel” tends to be a small niche, unless talking about holiday travels to sunny places which is a seasonal thing. A 380 can fly from A to B taking X number of passengers. A smaller plane can do the same, but can only take X/2 passengers. In a competing market with smaller planes offering the same comfort, same price, this means the 380 will on average fly with more empty seats. It has less flexibility compared with a smaller plane. To stay competitive it’s better to use the smallest plane you can practically operate to fill up all the seats, than to use a plane that is too large lots of the time.

Maybe in 10 years the number of passengers has doubled and the 380 will be competitive, but 10 years is an awful long time to predict into the future. It may just as well be halved, or stay the same.

The elephant is the circulation
ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway

Also I’m not sure passengers like them as much as the manufacturer thinks. Sure the flight is comfortable enough and quieter than other airliners, but if you’re off near last the queue at immigration is massive and it takes hours to get through. It’s bad enough if you get off near the end of a 777, getting off a plane with almost twice as many passengers would add quite a lot of time to your travel (and anxiety if you’ve got a connecting flight).

On the other hand, at least the economy cabin doesn’t have the awful 2-5-2 layout the DC-10 had (and inevitably, when travelling alone, I’d get stuck in the middle of the 5. I didn’t like the DC-10 at all for this reason).

Last Edited by alioth at 20 Feb 15:45
Andreas IOM

Lucius wrote:

I can see the possibility that in 10 years from now, Airbus turned out to be correct about hub & spoke, but failed to time.

That may be the case, but one underlying issue will remain – the fact that there are precious few airports that can handle the A380. Boeing undoubtedly watched the whole saga with interest (and some Schadenfreude!) and I’m sure it has informed their decision of equipping the latest iteration of the 777 with folding wingtips, thus enabling it to use standard-width gates.

Airborne_Again wrote:

How difficult would it be to restart production? Will they scrap jigs etc.?

Good point – anyone know ?

As they hold the type certificate, I think they must keep it to be able to produce parts… Or A380 would have been grounded.

EGTR

Strictly speaking I don’t think so but in practice they must, and anyway parts are big money.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Lucius wrote:

If “lack of asphalt” is the issue, how will airports cope with air travelers doubling by 2036, seat count per aircraft shrinking, and number of point-to-point routes increasing? Creating more asphalt is extremely difficult (see Heathrow, Berlin Brandenburg).

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/emirates-wants-an-a380-replacement/

United States

alioth wrote:

but if you’re off near last the queue at immigration is massive and it takes hours to get through.

Not sure what that has to do with aircraft pax capacity. Immigration and security are both mostly centralized and the volumes are more related to overall pax volumes rather than per aircraft. Lines should be about the same if 1x A380 with 500 pax lands or 5x A2xx at the same time with each 100 pax.

LSZK, Switzerland

But generally the 5x A2xx will not all land at the same time from foreign destinations, they will be spaced apart by a few hours. But the A380 arrives all at once.

Andreas IOM

International arrivals at large airports like Heathrow are minutes apart, not hours. The lines at immigration will only be affected by total pax within the previous hour or so, not the number of pax per a/c per se.

LSZK, Switzerland

I can assure you that the biggest factors in immigration (and security) queues at any hub airport is timing and the number of staff/booths. Aeroplane size is irrelevant.

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