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Back from the US (Cessna Mustang)

Many PC12 are flown by their owners, and actually it’s very easy to fly. I’ve flown it for a couple of hours and it was surprisingly easy. The buying and maintaining is the hard part :-)

Adam,

I am with Achim on this one. While I don’t know the sales figures and order book of the TBM, the PC12 production is most of the time sold out solid for at least one or two years. If you want a new PC12, you might get one in 2017 if you order one now or so. I reckon the TBM might not be much different.

With the current offering, the “cheapest” way to do it is a Jetprop followed by the Mirage. That is how quite a few people who want to go this way get started. Many in Europe will try to avoid Eurocontrol costs with the Jetprop in particular, as all the other TP’s are significantly higher than that 2000 kg limit. While the Jetprop is a very capable airplane it is notoriously short of payload. Yet some of them are available at prices well below a new Cirrus and therefore quite attractive to people looking for a faster deal with more range and speed.

People who aspire to a TBM or a PC12 most of the time can afford a jet like the Mustang or similar but conciously decide to go the TP route for all the reasons Achim stated. The TP’s have a much longer range, they are less complex to fly and keep current on than a jet is and they do not face the runway restrictions that multiengine planes face in Europe. Yes, they are in many cases much more expensive to buy, even on the used market. You can today pick up a single pilot approved Citation 501 for 200-300k Euros at times or a 551SP for half a million, because they are old airplanes with corresponding fuel use and range, but they are viciously expensive to run and limited to rather large runways, even if some owners fly them out of 1200-1500m runways. I know several people who have actually done this, at least one of them had his really nice 501 for sale within a year and as far as I know owns an older TBM now, which even used cost him multiple times as much as he paid and got for his 501 but has the much higher utility.

Currently you can pick up a nice Jetprop at around half a million Euros, Mirages for maybe 750k up, which is already more than some Citations, used TBM’s start at around 800k to 1 Million, PC12’s are in the 2.5 to 4 Million Euro range.

I would think that if there is one veritable boom market in GA, it definitly is the single turpoprop.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

Mooney_Driver wrote:

the PC12 production is most of the time sold out solid for at least one or two years. If you want a new PC12, you might get one in 2017 if you order one now or so. I reckon the TBM might not be much different.

I think that’s more the image the companies like to give but not the truth. If you order a TBM 900 now, you can get it delivered in December. Looking at the production in Tarbes, they could easily double the rate from today’s 50-55 units so there’s clearly a lack of demand. Socata is only 30% TBM, the rest is work for hire of components for various aircraft manufacturers.

There will be a speed improved PC12 early next year and it really didn’t sound like there was a long waiting list. So even a “boom” is a very relative thing in today’s GA environment

Mooney_Driver wrote:

nice Jetprop at around half a million Euros, Mirages for maybe 750k up,

I believe you mean Meridians, not Mirages. Meridians are TP. Mirages are SEP, they are like caterpillars waiting to grow into a Jetport butterfly :-)

EGTF, LFTF

Also you make it sound like a Musting would be a universal and smarter alternative to say a TBM. There are many reasons it isn’t:

I didn’t mean to suggest that. For many it is not going to fit their requirements. But I do think though that the argument is often framed in terms of cost which I think is a flawed argument as regards the combined operating costs and purchase price. Range, capabilities, complexity (operating and regulatory) are all sensible reasons. I also don’t think there is an artificial boom. The market is pretty clearly established now and I see little sign of change. But jets vs SETs are somewhat dissociated as markets.

EGTK Oxford

Very often you find piston think applied to TP’s and jets: “Oh, the second engine will burn twice as much fuel”. No, it’s simply not true. In piston twins yes, the efficiency goes down and they’ll burn about 30% more hp for hp compared to a single. That relationship is not true for gas turbines. A twin turbine with 1000hp total will burn as much as a single engine turbine with a 1000hp. You save zero cost in fuel. And in the case of engine overhauls, the gap is also less. A 1000hp PT6 will probably cost pretty close to overhaul what two 500hp PT6’s costs. Therefore, I do think the single engine TP market is inflated. Logic does not fully apply to it.

Just look at the new Cirrus jet numbers. They are terrible. It will burn as much fuel, if not more, than the Mustang does. Going slower. It will burn 40% more fuel than any TP twin. At best, going the same speed. Yet, it will sell like hot cakes and their users will keep perpetrating the myth that it’s much “cheaper” to run than a twin. Again, logic doesn’t apply. These things are bough with the heart, and so are most TP singles. That’s the reality of it.

denopa wrote:

I believe you mean Meridians, not Mirages. Meridians are TP.

yep, sorry, thanks for spotting it.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

achimha wrote:

I think that’s more the image the companies like to give but not the truth.

Achim,

well, it’s possible that it was marketingspeak but last time I visited Pilatus this spring that is what they told us. The situation with the 24 is pretty similar, first two years of production sold out they said.

Possibly it is different with Socata.

achimha wrote:

So even a “boom” is a very relative thing in today’s GA environment

True, however I think it is fair to say that this is the segment which worked best in recent history. The PC12 is one success story of which there are not that many. Thankfully Pilatus was clever enough to shift to the civil market after the political left here made the trainer market they made their money with unprofitable for them. I am glad they prevailed and did not simply move their production elsewhere as they well could have done after several huge PC9 and 21 deals were shot down by politicians.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

Mooney_Driver wrote:

well, it’s possible that it was marketingspeak but last time I visited Pilatus this spring that is what they told us. The situation with the 24 is pretty similar, first two years of production sold out they said.

The way it works is the same as in the car industry. Dealers have to commit to a certain volume and get allotted production capacity at certain times. For a December 2015 delivery, they have to fully spec the aircraft by October. If they find a buyer, they spec it, if not, they either spec it themselves (easy: everything in) and take it on their own balance sheet or they give back the production slot which would be a sign of crisis and also reflect badly on the dealer and its yearly factory bonus payment. This way, the factory can claim they are booked out while in reality quite a few airplanes are still for sale.

For the same reason big car dealerships tend to have their parking lot stuffed with cars. Therefore never take statements like “production for the next 2 years sold out” too serious.

AdamFrisch wrote:

These things are bough with the heart, and so are most TP singles. That’s the reality of it.

I would think not only in that market, that is what the GA market is about to a huge extent. It is probably true to a lesser extent for commercial companies who will carefully evaluate all the options and buy the one they can make most money of.

Even airlines sometimes have to yield to this. I remember vividly that many passengers rejected the Saab 2000 just because it had propellers. Prop = 2nd world war generation, uncomfortable, loud, unsafe. That is the perception that many have. In the case of the SB20, we who knew better had to hold back not to scream at the ignorance. That airplane at the time was easiest the most modern, economical and simply best turboprop commuter ever built, dream to fly, very comfortable cabin with active noise suppression which worked perfectly, 1200 kg baggage capacity and huge volume, but no, they wanted jets. So the Embraer came and we lost money with it. No wonder, it consumed 30% more, carrying 3 passengers less and had no space for bulky items. It hurts me every day when I see that this kind of attitude killed this great airplane and the vaccum was filled by the vastly inferior Dash 8 and the deathtrap called ATR, which I refuse to board to this day.

Private people will buy planes as well as other things 90% out of personal likes and only 10% out of reason and calculation, at least most people who are in the position of even thinking airplanes or other non essential goods. I see this a lot when I advise people on airplanes to buy. Some folks spend months looking and at the end buy something totally different than what they were looking for because the wife would like the seat covers or they have a fixed idea in their heads what something should look like. I have people who insist on having a specific brand of airplane even though they can NEVER afford it, so they keep dreaming instead of buying a even better airplane they can afford. Reason does not come into that equation, which frustrates the hell out of me at times as for me, bang for buck is what I am interested in first and foremost, whereas many others don’t give a damn if a plane is more suitable for the task, it has to be red, blue, green yellow, a Piper because that was the first plane they flew in, a Cirrus because of the shute, it has to have leather seats, no matter that the one next to it is 10 years younger, has a brand new engine and prop and is half the price. Stuff like that really drives me mad at times. Same thing with cars, same thing with just about everything.

And that is exactly why in public perception and as status symbols Jets will ALWAYS outdo turboprops. No, they don’t care that a Lear Jet needs to be dressed rather than entered, no they don’t give a damn that a Cirrus Jet is a dog, it is a Cirrus and it has the parashute and my wife won’t let me have one which doesn’t. No matter that a nice cabin class Turoprop is the much nicer airplane to fly in, roomier, much more range, much more versatility, no, it is one with them WW2 contraptions left and right and that is scary.

There are exceptions, like the Mustang vs things like a TBM where jets make perfect sense and are the right choice. But whenever hype brands or particular preferences are in the way of people thinking straight and buy what really would do the best job, all these arguments fly out of the window. Only look at the release of the new Iphones, people camping for days outside the shop to have it even though it is expensive, untested and the old one they camped out for the year before would serve them well for another 10 years. That is also why a lot of airplanes end up on Planecheck barely after they have been bought. Land a marketing coup like Apple, Cirrus, Swatch and some other “have to have” makes, and no matter what you produce people are going to buy it.

That is life. We are not Vulcans.

Last Edited by Mooney_Driver at 03 Oct 18:38
LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland
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