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BALPA video on the future or airline pilot jobs



I am sure they are right in their assessment but presumably they are putting this out to keep to a minimum the oversupply of new pilots, which would dilute the power of the union.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Possibly a bit harsh. I think they should be applauded for releasing a reality check on a decimated industry. It may get even worse. Friend is F/O with Air Europe based Madrid. He has been kept on, others not, and he gets 10 hours a month flying. They are only paying him for the hours flown. He has reapplied for the Police, whist still flying his 10 hours. It really is a very difficult situation but it is generally bank of Mum and Dad that funds these careers and I know I would baulk if I had shelled out 100k for the little tempestuous one to sit at his Playstation all day.

Fly safe. I want this thing to land l...
EGPF Glasgow

I think we actually agree

The over-supply of pilots was getting bad before CV19, due to various airline bankrupcies.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

I don’t know what the latest is on military recruitment. IIRC the military always struggled to get pilots because of the pay and future career possibilities. So this may be still be a way into aviation for youngsters. Plus of course parts of GA. Bizjets, helicopters (oil rigs, ambulance etc). I admit it’s probably a fraction of Airline Ops but still something to ease the pain?

Private field, Mallorca, Spain

Probably a fair assessment of the situation right now. However, the situation could change relatively quickly. One airline with 600 flight deck crew, around 200 are retiring over the next two years, 200 are leaving the industry, and they expect to need around 100-200 new crew when things are back to a “new normal”.

Cargo and corporate are also hiring.

While one airline withdrew their job offer to MPL cadets, some of these cadets have been switched to another airline. The industry typically needs entry level FOs, in part because a lot of FO’s who are not on a command path eventually leave.

It is not like the 1970’s with over 50,000 experienced ex Vietnam service personnel.

The bigger threat is the potential of commercial air transport moving away from multi crew, to a hybrid flight and ground based crew. This could indeed happen in around five years.

Oxford (EGTK), United Kingdom

RobertL18C wrote:

One airline with 600 flight deck crew, around 200 are retiring over the next two years, 200 are leaving the industry, and they expect to need around 100-200 new crew when things are back to a “new normal”.

The training industry often talks of a retirement cliff and a pilot shortage, but I’ve never seen any evidence produced to suggest that the age profile of airline pilots is anything other than a uniform distribution. Why should it be?

Perhaps it’s all relative and I’m just used to a different definition of skill shortages. If I were to apply for the equivalent of my own job with a direct competitor then the chances are I’m the only serious candidate. To me a pilot shortage would be when the airlines are hunting down anyone with a licence of some sort and offering to pay for whatever further training they need to get an ATPL, not when the number of freshly-minted pilots per available job drops from 50 to 10!

EGLM & EGTN

aart wrote:

IIRC the military always struggled to get pilots because of the pay and future career possibilities. So this may be still be a way into aviation for youngsters.

I don’t think the military struggle to get pilots. Not in the UK, anyway. They have a hell of a lot of whittling down to do and only select the very best (or what their processes think are the very best) to begin pilot training.

It is true that the pay and prospects aren’t that good, but people want to fly fast jets and they’re not in it for the money. There’s also no reason to increase the pay while you have far more applicants than you need.

A military pilot is also well-positioned for a subsequent airline career (better money) or a gravy-train job with the CAA or NATS.

EGLM & EGTN

200 pilots trainees? I can count that many in a village. Their numbers are very low, there are WAY more unemployed commercial pilots.

ESME, ESMS

of some sort and offering to pay for whatever further training they need to get an ATPL

Only last year Part 121 US airlines were paying $30-40k signing on bonuses for newly minted ATPLs (recall in the US there is no frozen ATPL).

The economics of the profession are somewhat strange, but recall that putting an offspring through college and either Law school, Engineering, Med school or an MBA in the USA is not getting much change out $500k plus, the zero to hero ATPL schools in the USA are not an illogical proposition. In Europe the economics had quite good return on investment as a senior Ryanair FO was making good money – more than some professions outside of law and finance. The integrated school employment rate of 90% plus was also the case over the last six years or so, with some graduates achieving command in their twenties, early twenties in some cases – something unheard of in multi jet transport history outside of the air force.

If the integrated schools can’t provide a good placement rate, the pipeline of new students self corrects quite quickly.

Oxford (EGTK), United Kingdom

It’s an interesting point, comparing (a) paying for further education with (b) paying for a CPL/IR.

Probably not very different IF the parents are really paying for all of both of these, or univ is paid for by a student loan. They never used to in my days, but then college was free and univ was subsidised. Then the UK govt stated they want to see 50% of the population go to univ, so standards were dropped to rock bottom to make this possible (obviously; no other way to do it). All sorts of “silly” degree subjects appeared to milk the new money…

However I wonder whether somebody with no higher education is going to enjoy being an airline pilot? Sure one can learn to push the right buttons but a person with no technical aptitude will never learn anything useful about aircraft systems.

What sort of higher education profile is seen by CPL/IR FTO cadets?

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom
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