@Peter : indeed I read through the TB20 thread before, the challenges are very similar except, as you rightly mention, the TB20 was let down in the US by the European manufacturer whereas the Commander has US origins.
The ADs, as I said in my comment, had all been addressed and rectified and went into the production line so any future production aircraft would have zero problems to start with. ( I believe you were mistaken by a long AD list, most of which were from the 1970s wereas the 114B from the 90s only had a few, mostly minor. Ours for example has only one left, the elevator spar annual inspection) .
As far as modern appeal goes, the basic Commander shape still looks imho quite attractive and with modern avionics and a reshaped interior it could be achieved without going through an expensive certification process.
Maybe you should offer your consultancy to the future company for cost reduction Peter, and I don’t mean that as a joke.
I would not be too optimistic for any legacy design to resume production these days as first of all, most of them have no way a shute can be integrated which already is one killer argument in most cases. Secondly, production of the legacy planes is viciously expensive due to the manual labour involved and the low numbers onto which to distribute fixed costs for factory, salaries, insurances e.t.c.
Most of them have failed.
I would totally agree that trying to sell a $1M plane without a chute is not going to work.
The non-chute market exists at some point below that number. If it didn’t exist then sales of used non-chute planes would be dead, and they aren’t.
One really easy thing is cutting out dealers. They waste some 15-20% of the manufacturer’s income, contribute nothing, often involve “interesting” “aviation scene” characters whose behaviour damages the brand and sets up the dealer at war with the manufacturer (Air Touring, anyone? 
), are a complete waste of space for parts support when these can be shipped in 48hrs by a courier from the US to anywhere in the civilised world… that whole model goes back to the 1950s “Mercedes dealer” world.
Couldn’t agree more with you Peter.
Peter wrote:
One really easy thing is cutting out dealers.
Well, I am not too sure about that. While a huge dealership net may not be something you need these days, it is still quite advisable to have a local (i.e. European) dealership where prospective customers can actually see the airplane and try it and which takes care of all the necessary formalities for a sale into the country of residence of the buyer. Not everyone will buy in America and do the whole transfer process themselfs.
Apart, I understand that dealers still make up a larger part of the sales of small airplanes than direct sales from the factory. Almost all of the few Mooneys in recent years were sold by Mooney dealers within the US, some of them are sitting on unfulfilled orders now. I also understand that Cirrus has quite a network of such facilities over the world. The European one is in the Netherlands I believe.
While a huge dealership net may not be something you need these days, it is still quite advisable to have a local (i.e. European) dealership where prospective customers can actually see the airplane and try it and which takes care of all the necessary formalities for a sale into the country of residence of the buyer.
One could do that with a freelance “demonstration guy”.
Apart, I understand that dealers still make up a larger part of the sales of small airplanes than direct sales from the factory. Almost all of the few Mooneys in recent years were sold by Mooney dealers within the US, some of them are sitting on unfulfilled orders now.
That is probably true but Mooney have gone bust trying to sell Cirrus-priced planes without a chute, so maybe that’s not a viable model
I also understand that Cirrus has quite a network of such facilities over the world. The European one is in the Netherlands I believe.
Yes, one in the UK too, all selling $1M planes There is no market for another $1M piston which shakes rattles, makes a load of noise so everybody has to wear headsets, needs cannulas, etc, and which doesn’t have a chute. In fact I doubt anybody could enter the $1M market even if they had a chute.
To succeed with a new product you have to offer something significantly better. In this case the only opening is at a lower price.
Peter,
well, yes, the simple issue was that without them they would not have sold any at all. Apart, they sold more than they could make in the end, so the demand was there, but not even that price was enough to cover the costs. Without the dealerships which sold almost all the sold planes, they would not have even sold the 28 Ultras (and before the previous versions) which they have sold. Apparently one dealer alone sold 4 planes in two days. So the dealer model may be very valid indeed even if the underlaying product is not.
Peter wrote:
To succeed with a new product you have to offer something significantly better. In this case the only opening is at a lower price
In order to make new products viable, certification must change in a big way. And even then, the money needed to develop and produce a clean sheet design is tremendous. Basically, you need to be able to pre-finance the whole process until you start deliveries and quite possible the first year of production ahead of time. I hear figures of $ 40 million for a clean sheet design to certification over 2 years (overly optimistic, most certifications took significantly longer) and then possibly again that much to start production. $ 100-150 million into a SEP? Who would invest this kind of money?
In the old days, a new clean sheet design could be certified and sold within 1-2 years. Grumman did that with the AA5 series, Mooney got the M22 certified within about 2 years and so on. Since then, preciously few designs survived certification and those who did only did so with influx of Chinese play money. That is why we are still dreaming of restarting production of old airframes because making new ones is next to impossible within reasonable amounts of money. And if you end up with up front costs of that magnitude, with the expectation to sell maybe 200 per year (VERY optimistic) you’d have to amortize the upfront money with 400 planes. that is 250k per plane only for that.
well, yes, the simple issue was that without them they would not have sold any at all.
Not wishing to be obtuse but a factory which forces to buy only via dealers is only going to sell via dealers Without dealers, Mooney’s price would have been some 15-20% lower and they would have sold more as a result. Nobody needs dealers these days, especially Mooney owners who have got decades of practice of avoiding the Mooney parts supply pipeline – example
Socata got p1ssed off with its dealers eventually and started selling TBMs directly. Probably unofficially but AIUI this led directly to Air Touring’s collapse (UK and Germany). They always sold used planes direct.
In order to make new products viable, certification must change in a big way.
I think that is largely a myth – unless one makes the argument that one can install uncertified avionics which indeed are quite a bit cheaper. Albeit with some dodgy features like the “new autopilots” not doing ILS, or not having pitch trim.
Commander are much better placed to restart, IMHO. Much better than Socata even though Socata have a more modern airframe – because Socata are almost unknown in the US market.
It’s time to do something quite different!
Peter wrote:
It’s time to do something quite different!
Like this:
Had a visit from my inspector yesterday. He came straight from Switzerland having visiting Kopter. They (Helitrans) had ordered 12 or 18 of those, but have to wait a bit more due to some manufacturing issues. Brand new design, carbon fiber, all glass, FADEC.
I mean, this is what the GA market wants, and is willing to pay for. Re-starting some 60s manufacturing for the purpose of selling to private individuals sounds to me like a dead end.
Peter wrote:
Not wishing to be obtuse but a factory which forces to buy only via dealers is only going to sell via dealers
Or a company which is not really very adept in marketing and therefore does not succeed where dealers do… more likely that was the case here.
