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PA46 Malibu N264DB missing in the English Channel

It does point to him having had, or done at some point, or trained towards, the IMCR.

The problem is that, as you know, the combination of

  • real IMC
  • night
  • unfamiliar plane?
  • icing? (or concern over icing) hence the descent; could there have been any other reason, given that it would be pitch-black at any altitude?
  • hand flying because the autopilot is INOP / you don’t know how to engage it

is a much more difficult mix than flying in IMC under the hood on a nice day.

Otherwise, I would prefer to not guess why someone might write they flew a bad ILS – because there have been so many people on forums who made stuff up just for fun. There was a guy posting for years on UK’s most [in]famous site, writing about the most amazing adventures, in really correct English, some of it being good enough for a James Bond film, and eventually the consensus was that he made it up, and could have been a teenager who was really into aviation. Eventually they removed him, and some reincarnations, which was rare because they loved having weird characters there (most forums do; it’s great for traffic). There are unfortunately many people who live in a world of make believe.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

It works the other way as well. I know a couple of people who have been dismissed by the fora as fantasists who are actually quite good pilots. Go figure!

EGKB Biggin Hill

I suspect that the pilot will have flown a revalidation flight in the aircraft and the AAIB will have a discussion with flight instructor who will have insight, and who will be well known. I commented earlier that there is also the question of the FAA biennial flight review which may well have been undertaken in the same aircraft (not that either will necessarily). There may well have been different instructors involved in each.

As to IRs, lapsed IRs or IRRs or IMCrs I think instrument qualifications in these circumstances are irrelevant to the extent that this may well have been hard IFR flying – which simply means one thing cruising around in a layer during the day, whereas at night, over the sea in weather is a totally different matter. The qualification is irrelevant, what would be relevant is currency and familiarity with the aircraft. I think most pilots with any of these qualifications would struggle unless they were current on type and on instruments if anything went wrong.

Last Edited by Fuji_Abound at 12 Feb 21:51

It works the other way as well. I know a couple of people who have been dismissed by the fora as fantasists who are actually quite good pilots. Go figure!

Well, yes, but this just illustrates that one cannot tell either way what he was trying to say.

FB audience has a broad spectrum but is strongly self selecting on personalities who just like to type away, writing any old drivel… Most GA pilots don’t get to fly anywhere near as much as they would like, so they often hit the internet pretty hard.

I suspect that the pilot will have flown a revalidation flight in the aircraft and the AAIB will have a discussion with flight instructor who will have insight, and who will be well known.

An instructor will be reluctant to inform the AAIB that (IF) the subject was a really bad pilot, because he signed him off

On the quick look at the weather (further back) it does not seem like icing was a factor, but one cannot be sure. Also the PA46 can handle some – assuming the boots are working.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

An instructor will be reluctant to inform the AAIB that (IF) the subject was a really bad pilot, because he signed him off

For sure, but the flight almost certainly would have be in good weather, after all it wasnt an instrument renewal. The instructor may well have discussed some of the implications of flying on the N reg and on instruments, or at least should have done so. He may also have been familiar with the type of flying the pilot was undertaking.

Last Edited by Fuji_Abound at 12 Feb 22:05

Timothy, you can fly down a practice ILS under VFR any time. That’s never a problem. Maybe he did that and just didn’t write it in his FB post.

EDLN, Germany

Or maybe he had an instructor on board, who may or may not be the ferry pilot who was first suspected to be flying the aircraft at the time of accident?

EGTF, LFTF

Fuji_Abound wrote:

We dont know whether this was a controlled ditching, or not.

Definitely not controlled from what I have recently learnt.

All the pictures released (that I have seen) show the rear of the aircraft and that’s because the front of the aircraft is not attached. It has broken off due to the impact.

The aircraft dropped from 2000ft very rapidly, and therefore entered the water at a steep angle.

EGLK

Colin wrote:

Definitely not controlled from what I have recently learnt.

What are you basing that on? Or is this non public info?

EGTK Oxford

JasonC wrote:

What are you basing that on?

I was told this by someone who has discussed it with the various parties involved. It has not been published yet that I am aware of.

It is unlikely to be published until all the facts have been investigated.

EGLK
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