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PA46 Malibu N264DB missing in the English Channel

Graham wrote:

Exeter are better than most, probably because their part of the country is quiet…The better ones do it without asking.

Yes, I have 4 data points but I completely agree with this

On the accident, it is not clear how much severe icing was? but it feels a big gap between forecast and actual…

Last Edited by Ibra at 22 Jan 19:03
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

N264DB is listed as a piston Malibu, actually an original one 310hp version.

Why anyone would fly this low is beyond me and why a private operator would carry a VIP also.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

Regret no current medical
Was Sandtoft EGCF, North England, United Kingdom

Looks like a piston Malibu.

Regret no current medical
Was Sandtoft EGCF, North England, United Kingdom

Mooney_Driver wrote:

Why anyone would fly this low

Ice.

EGLM & EGTN

Peter wrote:

but it is the ICAO-mandated ATC job demarcation which ATC unions carefully guard.

It might be that UK ATC unions carefully guard this, but where does ICAO say that a FISO can’t use radar?

FISOs don’t need ICAO licenses and I’ve checked the section on FIS in both Annex 11 and Doc 4444 and can’t find any restrictions on the use of radar in FIS.

In fact, Doc 4444 explicitely states how radar can be used in FIS :

8.11.1:
The information presented on a situation display may be used to provide identified aircraft with:
a) information regarding any aircraft observed to be on a conflicting path with the identified aircraft and suggestions or advice regarding avoiding action;
b) information on the position of significant weather and, as practicable, advice to the aircraft on how best to circumnavigate any such areas of adverse weather (see 8.6.9.2, Note);
c) information to assist the aircraft in its navigation

ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

Graham wrote:

I don’t think Bournemouth is really relevant. At the altitude and location (5,000ft, later cleared to descend to 2,300) the pilot would have had to be working Jersey Control.

Bournemouth LARS only because you can usually get a service from them after 50N, so that might have been his next point of contact as he was nearly at 50N. At 50N you usually have three options Plymouth Mil. (often closed), Bournemount Lars, (both useful for a radar service) and London Info (but unable to provide radar).

He would have been IFR in the zone if in IMC, but I am not sure how he filed VFR out of France unless there was a night VFR corridor. My understanding is that otherwise VFR at night in France is not accepted?

It would be surprising given the pilot’s huge experience and the routes flown if he did not have an IR. Perhaps expediency determined a non IFR flight plan, and perhaps he thought it was better to get below the icing, ahving picked up ice at 5,000 feet. It seems strange that at 2,000 feet on the evening in question he was in cloud and severe icing, but then I havent seen the area forecast, and entirely possible. Never the less, if the rumours are to be believed then presumably there must have been some indication given to CIs zone because otherwise it can only be speculation.

Last Edited by Fuji_Abound at 22 Jan 19:54

but it feels a big gap between forecast and actual…

There is no such thing as an icing forecast. Well, not one that is worth more than the photons coming out of the LCD pixels. You can guess how I know, and it is from many exposures I know there are loads of pretty websites which show icing potential but they tell you nothing (of real value) which isn’t blindingly obvious from the MSLP charts.

At ~4000ft near EGMD I picked up some 3cm in 5 mins. Smooth stratus, 1500ft base, 4500ft tops. I posted about it here a few times. Another 5-10 mins and it will bring down any plane without de-ice. Boots will just delay it, and/or they may bridge – especially if not used right. TKS would cope, all the time the stuff is flowing, and I happen to know that too.

The problem, I am fairly sure, is that this pilot could not do legal IFR, and many pilots, especially UK ones, are heavily conditioned by training (and other post-training exposure) to comply with ATC and not bust CAS etc even if means saving their life. In the UK getting a legit “pop up IFR clearance” – the legit way to get out of this in a PA46 – is virtually impossible especially for any significant distance and certainly would take minutes, possibly many minutes, of coordination. Even in France it can take many minutes even in a clear emergency (look up N2195B).

It is possible it was an IR holder flying at 5000ft for some other reason, however. There have been many fatals of IR holders flying basically VFR, often for reasons which aren’t clear.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

t is possible it was an IR holder flying at 5000ft for some other reason, however. There have been many fatals of IR holders flying basically VFR, often for reasons which aren’t clear.

I understand the low altitude due to not busting Class A, but why would anyone choose to fly VFR, at night, with weather less than “good”, across the English channel, on a capable machine such as a Malibu?

From France to the UK they must have filed a flight plan in any case. It’s not like flying VFR involved any less paperwork.

Also, IFR flying is just easier and safer when you actually need to fly from A to B, as was the case of this flight.

Last Edited by Alpha_Floor at 22 Jan 20:13
EDDW, Germany

Peter wrote:

At ~4000ft near EGMD I picked up some 3cm in 5 mins. Smooth stratus, 1500ft base, 4500ft tops.

As you remember I picked even more at FL200 flying through the top of cumulus at -20 degrees expecting to get no ice at that temperature. TKS at MAX was able to handle it but non-protected surfaces were collecting it at high rate. Descending didn’t help much (although I tried it but at FL180 was even worse, at FL160 the same and at FL140 slightly better) as long as I wasn’t able to descend below 0 degrees level which was below FL100. Earlier descent to lower altitude wasn’t an option because of terrain. BTW icing was forecasted at GFS model (up to FL160) but not on the other charts.
Last Edited by Emir at 22 Jan 20:18
LDZA LDVA, Croatia
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