Snoopy wrote:
We can learn from it to not fly ….. low level, vfr, over water at night if there is any sign of weather/imc.
If not trained and flying capable aircraft with properly assessed risks and prepared plan B (and C) strategy and execution.
Cobalt wrote:
Why is it so hard to accept that, in all likelihood, this VFR pilot on a VFR flight lost control after entering cloud or trying to avoid it, at night, entirely without the assistance of some failure?
I don’t think it is. If you look at the radar track in the report released (and note how close the aircraft was, horizontally, to the last radar return), and the pulverized wreckage, the balance of probabilities is that the pilot lost control in a classic VMC-into-IMC spiral dive and the aircraft had a high energy impact with the water in a steep nose down attitude.
Did I say anything different? “lost control after entering cloud or tying to avoid it, at night” ==> typically a “spiral dive”, although other ways to lose control exist…
Or did you mean that it is NOT hard to accept – well, for some it clearly is, because there is continuing speculation about autopilot failure / pitot heat failure / icing / icing failure / inability of pilot to use any of the above.
It’s the difference between what led up to this, and what happened in the last seconds.
Peter wrote:
It’s the difference between what led up to this, and what happened in the last seconds.
…and also the fact that if you start the day illegal, then the chances that you are going to ask for help when you get in trouble are reduced.
Timothy wrote:
…and also the fact that if you start the day illegal, then the chances that you are going to ask for help when you get in trouble are reduced.
I am not for a moment suggesting this applies to you Timothy, but the concept of asking for help is an interesting one. I find the longer one aviates or boats (for that matter) the more you realise that in many ways you are on your own. We start out thinking AT is something of a comfort, but realise when the proverbial hits the fan, they are of limited help. Now I appreciate that there are times – working out a diversion, weather avoidance even, or just that emergency clearance for some reason or another, but if this was ice or weather I suspect in those moments that count the pilot is very much on his own. You need to work it out, and AT arent going to be any help. I suspect those critical moments leading to a LOC are all about muscle memory, reacting to the situation and recovery. Of course sufficient ice, or enough upsets and its not going to be recoverable.
I am not suggesting that ATC can talk you through how to recover from a spiral dive in IMC.
I am suggesting that he might have discussed the whole situation with them earlier. He might have asked for a climb above the weather, or a routing away from the weather or a diversion or whatever. But the chances of that conversation happening are likely to be reduced if it is going to expose a fundamental flaw in the legality of the the flight.
So far as being on one’s own goes, then you need to understand the situation you are in.
I have flown to some very remote places where there is no contact whatsoever, and clearly there you are absolutely on your own.
But I have equally had emergencies in Europe where my hands have been somewhat full and then to hear “I have spoken to Bigtown, 1200m runway, 20 nautical miles 240 degrees from your current position; they are open with a cloudbase of 3000’ and light winds; their emergency services have been alerted; would you like to divert there?” is extremely helpful and reassuring!
Horses for courses.
I remember departing on PPL from Lille to the UK telling ATC on the ground “we will try to make it anyway” their answer was “let us know if you change you mind”, the flight on top of the Channel end up to be hardcore IMC (don’t ask me how one end up there) then “a full assitance package” back to Le-Touquet as suggested by Lille Info (I was planning to divert to Calais or Lydd)
The second option, is a silent decent on Abbeville VOR not speaking to anybody or just carry one (anybody with current IMC rating can do that) but in the first option you get offered free tea/coffee/landing/ils at the tower once you are safely on the ground, that is hard to resist ;)
I was returning to Booker a couple of years ago and the weather was shit. The ATCO gave the weather and then said “would you like the Oxford weather?”
Subtle, but effective 
That works only if the ATC ELP is well above zero 
