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Is the atmosphere getting warmer at higher altitudes?

I’ve seen this discussed before a number of times but can’t find it here. It’s a recurring theme in IFR.

Last two years I saw -5C at FL160 which was unheard of say 10 years ago.

Today I was talking to an experienced pilot (pistons, to big jets) about my own experience of encountering ISA+XX more each year. He said that while surface temperatures have gone up only very little, the upper atmosphere is a lot warmer – say another 20C – than perhaps 20 years ago.

And with IMC often seen at FL300+ which used to be virtually unknown, this is causing serious icing incidents in jet aircraft, whose certification is based on atmospheric data from the 1940s or 1950s.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Really?
You do know this is going to turn into a global warming / climate change debate, right?

Climate change posts will be moved to the climate change thread

This one is about whether others here have experienced increasing ISA+ temperatures. Many bizjet pilots have told me they do.

Are pilots flying in the FL150-FL250 seeing warmer air, compared with say 10 years ago?

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

I wasn’t flying much 10 years ago at these altitudes but from experience I am seeing a lot more even positive temperatures at FL120 -150

Last Edited by LFHNflightstudent at 06 Sep 15:46
LFHN - Bellegarde - Vouvray France

A topic like that can only be discussed based on hard data from flight instrument recordings.

The answer to “do you also feel that temperatures in atmosphere have gone up” is always “yes” as we are much more aware of warming today. It’s like asking "do you also more often wait in the “wrong” line these days?"

Germany

Malibuflyer wrote:

A topic like that can only be discussed based on hard data from flight instrument recordings.

Fair point, I will happily comply ;-) one example is today’s flight back from Alghero (Sardegna) despite some “ difficult conditions over the Alps. Weather was very connective, I had a friend who remained stuck in a citation in Palma.




LFHN - Bellegarde - Vouvray France

+3C at 12k is quite warm…

A topic like that can only be discussed based on hard data from flight instrument recordings.

I don’t think so. There are enough pilots on EuroGA who fly fairly high up. Maybe not flying as much in 2020 as on other years but still we could get some reports. Whether the many people will contribute is, of course, another question

One previous thread on a similar topic is here. Flying in the summer is probably a part of the story.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

I don’t think so. There are enough pilots on EuroGA who fly fairly high up. Maybe not flying as much in 2020 as on other years but still we could get some reports

I never had doubts that pilots can adequately report if / how often they see high temperatures in the levels today. But your question was not, how often you see it today but if it is more often than and or warmer than 10 years ago.

An no-one who did not do very accurate notes can remember today, how often they have seen ISA+12 (to use LFHNs example) 10 years ago. That’s pure “it feels like getting warmer” speculation.

Just to set a point against it: I actually “remember” that many decades ago, when I was a child", the summers have been much warmer than today: I remember many days we spend at the lokal lake w/o any rain. I remember strong sunburns. I remember clear skies and above 30 deg continuously for many weeks when I was 8 or so.
So to answer your question: Can’t say if atmosphere is getting warmer at high altitudes – but it is for sure getting colder and much more rainy at surface level in July/Aug – that’s at least what I remember and there are enough people here who could give you reports, that we had rain in July/Aug this year!

Peter wrote:

+3C at 12k is quite warm…

ISA+12. Equals 27C at seal level. Yes, that is quite warm – but also 10 years ago all but unusual for a warm summer day in southern France.

Last Edited by Malibuflyer at 08 Sep 05:36
Germany

Yes it is getting warmer, I rarely fly at ISA at altitude nowadays

Antonio
LESB, Spain

Antonio wrote:

Yes it is getting warmer, I rarely fly at ISA at altitude nowadays

Absolutely! It’s feels like six months ago when I last flew at ISA … on sea level !

We call it summer!

Germany
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