The problem is that when the effects are somewhat localised, models are hard to create.
Fog clearance surely requires either warming (perhaps if there is higher level cloud the sun doesn't warm the ground sufficiently for it to clear) or wind to disperse it?
Grounded in sunny (yes, really!) Scotland today by fog in Essex, but this TAF gives a glimmer of hope for tomorrow afternoon:
+03:20 EGSS – Stansted
TAF AMD EGSS 201339Z 2013/2118 25006KT 9999 BKN005
PROB40
TEMPO 2013/2018 6000 BKN004
BECMG 2018/2021 0100 FG BKN001
TEMPO 2101/2112 3000 -RADZ BKN003
BECMG 2112/2115 6000 NSW BKN012
TEMPO 2115/2118 3000 -RADZ BR BKN002=
But would you trust it?
Second question, is there an airfield in or near Essex which, like Prestwick in SW Scotland, is practically never fogbound?
Jacko wrote:
But would you trust it?
You mean for an IFR arrival? My crystal ball (Topmeteo) says yes from around 1400Z, but VFR no way. Since there is quite some wind (10 kts @ 30 ft) the fog shouldn’t hold all day…
Thanks Rwy20, methinks I’ll have a go, subject to last minute TAFs. Worst case, if the local TAF fog forecasts are wrong, I’ll have to turn the old bird round and fly home.
Very doubtful for VFR in Essex tomorrow and becoming IFR back in SW Scotland too with mist and fog!
The highest is the altiport at Nayland but in Suffolk, on the Essex border. EGMC Southend is usually above minima for the ILS and is the only IFR airport ex Stansted.
Jacko,
My whole Tuesday was screwed over by over enthusiastic fog forecasts.
The Heathrow forecast the night before (this was for a Fairoaks departure) was
TAF AMD EGLL 190229Z 1902/2006 21003KT 2000 BR FEW040 BECMG 1902/1905 0200 FZFG FG VV/// BECMG 1910/1913 6000 NSW FEW040 PROB40 TEMPO 1913/1917 9999 BECMG 1918/1921 4000 BR BKN008 TEMPO 1922/2006 BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 2000/2006 0500 FG VV///
Based on which the owner went commercial, but in the event it was CAVOK from 0700 onwards.
Currently there is already no more fog, but it’s still only feasible with an ILS CAT 2 approach:
EGSS 211120Z AUTO 24005KT 1900 BR OVC001 10/10 Q1035
only feasible with an ILS CAT 2 approach
Is that really true? is the vertical measurement really that precise in such conditions? I would guess the runway lights would probably be visible at the cat1 minimum with 1900 horizontal visibility.
