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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion

The wife of a colleague of mine is working with this virus, keeping track of the situation etc. She is genuinely concerned about it. This could get real nasty. But then, I guess all doctors are concerned? Not sure what to think, but I don’t think flying GA will help much

ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway

@LeSving
Can you get any more details from her?

The with of (dis-)information so far is from “it’s like the flu people, relax” to “it’s a bio weapon to kill of the HK protesters”.

Either nobody knows anything and time will tell or the true extent of this is known and will only be released once the pandemic is irreversibly present?

CB IR Instruction
LOWG, LOWW

The main difference in ability to estimate virus potential is lack of statistics for new corona virus vs. common flu. Also, these two viruses are different in many aspects and I’m not sure whether it’s easy to compare them. So as I understand, current information on new corona virus is mainly based on general knowledge on viruses and knowledge on other corona viruses. As data comes the knowledge will improve and more realistic picture we’ll get.

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

The wife of a colleague of mine is working with this virus, keeping track of the situation etc. She is genuinely concerned about it. This could get real nasty. But then, I guess all doctors are concerned? Not sure what to think, but I don’t think flying GA will help much 

I’m not concerned. This virus has low mortality rates and other infectious diseases, such as Influenza, are more likely to kill you here in Europe (Influenza is less deadly but you are much more likely to contract it, and it already killed dozens of people in Germany in the same time span as Corona is known).

GA or not GA has almost zero influence on your likelihood of infection, the more important questions are whether one washes their hands regularly and goes near large groups of people…

Last Edited by MedEwok at 11 Feb 09:00
Novice pilot
EDVM Hildesheim, Germany

I think a big factor will be whether the chinese are lying by a factor of 10 or by a factor of 100. Nobody actually knows.

There are suggestions that the data is too perfect a quadratic fit to be real. I have no idea where this graph was originally posted

If the incubation time grows, that’s another big problem. Last I heard, this morning, it was up to 24 days.

And Europe is about to get a huge number of chinese students travelling to china for their half term and coming back end of Feb. The universities and upmarket public (private) schools are full of them, and are trying to convince them to avoid the trip.

A big issue for GA would be if we get the mandatory aircraft disinfection (by chemical spray all over the inside including the instrument panel) as reported for the ZIKA virus a few years ago.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

I think the issues with lack of any honest information from China doesn’t help. As I understand they have a very low recorded death rate from flu as if anyone has a pre existing condition they will put that as cause of death rather than the flu. The leaked videos of the room barricades and screaming people in cubes in the back of pickups is a bit concerning.

The long incubation period (some say now upto 24 days), and that it seems to be taking out healthy younger people does raise concerns to me. The whilsteblower doctor who died from it was I think just 34.

It will be interesting to see now that people are going back to work if that will make it worse.

From what I read, 80% of the fatalities were over 60 years old and 75% had prior chronic illnesses.
Overall fatality rate was 2.1% (compared with 9.6% for SARS). Of course I have no idea how accurate these statistics are.

Note that Influenza can also kill young and healthy people.

Novice pilot
EDVM Hildesheim, Germany

China has been removing asymptomatic cases with positive test results from their numbers – here

China – 2019-nCov case numbers are now worthless because they are not counting lab confirmed asymptomatic cases – February 7, 2020

The WHO is basically completely useless.

If it takes say 1 week to show symptoms, and then more time to get looked at in a situation where there is basically panic, this means the numbers are understated by perhaps a couple of weeks’ worth of growth.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom
ESME, ESMS

I read that it’s a bat virus, transmitted to humans through a pangolin.
I wonder which bat species carry it.
One European light aircraft manufacturer might find one of their aircraft type names in the headlines, though they might not want it.

Maoraigh
EGPE, United Kingdom
3038 Posts
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