Menu Sign In Contact FAQ
Banner
Welcome to our forums

Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

I’m not at all confident this will be a light recession. I think we’re in for a really and one. The signs are everywhere.

One of my two businesses has always ben pretty recession proof. Even in the 2008-2011 crisis, I kept as busy as before, pretty much. Now all I hear from my peers, is there is nothing. Zero. And to be honest, I was never that convinced the economy was that solid after 2011 either. It felt propped up, soft money-led and with overvaluations across the board. For instance, I had my worst year ever in business in 2017 – a year that according to all the powers at be was supposed to be the very best. And 2018 wasn’t that great either. I had other friends in other businesses that had the same experience – really bad years during supposedly “the best” years. That tells me the fundamentals were never really there.

I fear this corona scare will strip the emperor fully, and lay everything bare. I think we have a very rough time ahead.

Last Edited by AdamFrisch at 13 Mar 20:46

I think it depends. There will be some heroic surgery that should probably be cancelled. I think it would be tragic if someone with a single melanoma was blocked from getting it whipped off.

It seems we are stopping elective surgery next week in Wales. I haven’t heard specifically about cancer surgery and whether it is excluded from this.

Last Edited by kwlf at 13 Mar 20:52

Stopping elective surgery is going to extremely upset some, ahem, progressive segments of modern society…

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Adam it is just not possible to know yet. I can come up with scenarios both ways. If this peaks by May we could come out fairly fast. Like most crises, if you know how it is going to end you can make a fortune. But no one does.

Last Edited by JasonC at 13 Mar 21:45
EGTK Oxford

Iran’s mass graves visible from space. . Turns out licking the shrines, not such a great idea.

There will be many losers. A lot of businesses will be destroyed by the drop in economic activity.

But also there will be winners.

At home, we have adopted a lot of changes to minimise the risk of catching this thing. So e.g. shopping is done online. Until now

Ocado (a home delivery supermarket, with a really big range of stuff) has been swamped and cannot handle any more business, as of this evening. And I think this will be a longer term change. They were a bit of a joke in some quarters. One of them was that the daugher of Anne Robinson (a wealthy showbiz personality) asked her mum “what is Tesco?” and the answer was “They are like Ocado but you have to go there”. I think that once people go to the trouble of learning how to do online shopping, how to set up recurring items, etc, they won’t easily go back.

There will also be a growth in bizjet travel. This has already happened. If you talk about 1st class airline tickets, bizjet travel, suitably organised, is not that much more.

And whoever can call the bottom on the stock markets, even approximately, and has spare cash, is going to make a fortune very easily. There is some way to go… the correct time to buy is when there is total emotional capitulation.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Off_Field wrote:

Iran’s mass graves visible from space. . Turns out licking the shrines, not such a great idea.

What is that supposed to mean??

EGTK Oxford

JasonC wrote:

What is that supposed to mean??

It was a reference to the videos that were going round a couple of weeks or so ago showing people at Qom licking the holy shrines to show how unafraid they were of the Coronavirus. Here’s a quote from one of the videos ""This is the steel window in the Ali ibn Musa Al-Reza shrine. Millions of people have come here and touched it – from remote villages, from cities, from streets, from countries, and continents. I’ve heard that some of the enemies of the family of the Prophet have recently spread rumors that the shrine and this window contracted corona, AIDS, hepatitis, and such nonsense. So I have come to lick the window of Imam Reza’s shrine, so that the disease enters my body and you would be able to and you would be able to make the pilgrimage peacefully. I have now eaten the corona disease. May you now come to visit our beloved [Imam Reza].""

I think that sort of attitude probably doesn’t help managing the spread of the virus.

Much like the Mayor of Florence suggesting italians to “hug a chinese”, not particularly helpful

e: I was also perhaps pointing out that the numbers they are claiming may not be accurate, a concern I also have with the Chinese numbers. For models, Garbage In Garbage out as they say.

Last Edited by Off_Field at 13 Mar 22:09

Just in case everything goes Walking Dead, the CDC have common sense advice on surviving a zombie apocalypse:

https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2011/05/preparedness-101-zombie-apocalypse/

EGHO-LFQF-KCLW, United Kingdom

Mmm. Does t seem like an appropriate comment to me. Let’s not start religious or racial generalisations.

EGTK Oxford
Sign in to add your message

Back to Top