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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

The eve of the first world war.

Bad news from the USA. I have suspected this for a while

London hospitals are starting to close to new COVID-19 admissions, so we have to ask how all these younger patients will manage if they can’t be hospitalised due to a lack of capacity.

The theory that we are all infected is hugely unlikely, because we are now so many incubation periods down the road from when it originally appeared. Also a lot of people are not really at risk (I count myself and Justine in that, living out in the countryside) and have not been for weeks.

What is obviously true is that infections are a good order of magnitude bigger than the reported positive tests.

I am sure the UK Govt’s drastic action was driven by the rapid realisation that a lot of people don’t give a toss about social distancing, or anything else. We live across the road from a pub, which is packed, along with other pubs we have just driven past. Throw in London having some 1/3+ of known UK positive tests, a public transport system which is optimised for spreading stuff, a busy and carefree social scene which is integral with a lifestyle where most can afford only very small apartments, a general disregard for any mitigating measures, and the UK was facing the likelihood of huge numbers of dead people because once the beds are full, and with each one occupied for a few weeks (they aren’t going to chuck out a critically ill 70 year old, sending him to his grave, and replace him with a critically ill 50 year old), many/most of those ending up in hospital and not getting any treatment would die.

But the UK is not much different from other countries in the above respects…

The US, along with the UK and lots of other places, has a large % of “young” people in poor health, due to a crappy diet.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

I’ve also heard that younger people respond well to ventillation assistance, which pulls down the death rate. If they were turned away I wonder how significant the change would be.

Europe now has more cases than China had. Yet the Chinese took much more draconian action than Europe is taking now, and they did it much earlier.

It still took them 2 months to get this under control.

There are people walking around now who are perfectly healthy and in low risk categories who are going to die because they will need a ventilator and there are none free.

Take care everyone and keep your social interactions to as close to zero as possible. Missing things for a few months isn’t important. Everything comes and goes…you want to make sure you are still around when this goes.

EIWT Weston, Ireland

Peter wrote:

The theory that we are all infected is hugely unlikely, because we are now so many incubation periods down the road from when it originally appeared. Also a lot of people are not really at risk (I count myself and Justine in that, living out in the countryside) and have not been for weeks.

You would be a good case to validate the hypothesis then. ;) If you could get a test, which isn’t possible since the question of who gets tested is also determined by the result that the experts expect, and not a scientific desire to study the spread of this disease. If you only test the population that you expect to test positive, then all testing can only serve to confirm your hypothesis, and it is impossible to get a differing result.

Regarding these young people in the US, I wonder how they would have been treated by the medical system if there was no knowledge of Sars-CoV-2 at all?

dublinpilot wrote:

Europe now has more cases than China had.

Like most numbers from China I think these are extremely unreliable. I wonder if they’ll admit if it starts spreading again when they get people moving again.

Like most numbers from China I think these are extremely unreliable. I wonder if they’ll admit if it starts spreading again when they get people moving again.

Well if China is under reporting, then Europe is even further delayed in it’s actions.

EIWT Weston, Ireland

The UK will be the new Italy:

London Subway Friday morning

Last Edited by EuroFlyer at 20 Mar 20:48
Safe landings !
EDLN, Germany

I’m mentally braced for lockdown until the start of June here in Ireland. I am only leaving the house for essential items, things that cannot be delivered. Generally, people here are now being pretty good at keeping in small family “units” and not mixing with other units. On my social media, I can see many of my friends out flying. Some say the private flying scene in the UK is as busy as ever. My friends in the UK who are all pro-Brexit people don’t have a care in the world I don’t really care about what I’m missing out on and I note that Weston Airport, one of the Irish GA hubs, is closed today until the end of May. For my own sanity I’ve done a few things:

  • Deleted all news apps, Twitter and Facebook off my phone
  • Stopped drinking coffee 5x a day as all the Cortisol stress is not good
  • Getting the boat ready at home to launch
  • Made a home gym in the garage to keep training 4x weekly

I might fly on my own once or twice from the lake to keep my hand in. Survival mode has definitely kicked in. One of my friends is dealing with a lot of Chinese colleagues and they are back to business as usual, which gives me hope that it will work out OK after this short Spring Break.

Buying, Selling, Flying
EISG, Ireland
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