Yes, important difference. Still current measures looked unacceptable just weeks ago.
What about scientific evidence that lockdowns work and which countries have excessive mortality due to respiratory issues?
hmng wrote:
What about scientific evidence that lockdowns work and which countries have excessive mortality due to respiratory issues?
Not scientific, but the three Scandinavian countries are included in LeSving’s graphs. The speed/capita graph is particularly interesting, I think. Denmark and Norway are in “lockdown” (although I don’t know how extensive compared to other countries), while Sweden is not. The graphs seem to show that Denmark and Norway have stopped a rise in speed/capita, but you can also see a similar effect for Sweden, using mostly voluntary measures.
(The only legal measure so far in Sweden is limiting crowds to 500 persons. There is also a recommendation that secondary schools — age 16 and up — and universities switch to distance teaching. AFAIU that recommendation has been followed by every school and university.)
So speaking only of deaths, Sweden has not seen any exponential growth, absolute numbers are quite low, and never forced everybody to say locked up in their homes?
What is the average deaths in Sweden caused by respiratory diseases?
The Scandinavian countries are about 3 weeks after Italy/S Korea. UK is about 2 weeks after, and Germany about 2.5. The time from infection to death is 2-3 weeks. The numbers of death we see now, is due to what happened 2-3 weeks ago. If no restriction were in place 2-3 weeks ago, there is no reason to believe it is not going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. How bad it gets depends on the “natural social distance” I would think.
I also looked at trendlines. It’s easy to see if the trend fits a linear line better than an exponential. This is probably the best method of prediction of how things will be 2-3 weeks from now.
I now know someone who has it – we think. 54 year old male.
Here is what happened.
1. Went to the Cheltenham Gold Cup horse racing. Corporate do. Friday 13th March.
2. Came back and felt uwell.
3. Retired to his room,
4. Has spent the last 8 days in his room going through various stages of unwellness.
5. Three days ago felt better, got up, and immediately felt very, very unwell.
6. Called 111 for advice.
7. Relayed symptoms, told to drink water, take a paracetamol. Was deemed by the call centre to be not well enough to go to hospital. He enquired about a test. We are not testing was the reply. Apparently this guy is really really unwell.
8 I have wished him well and asked to be kept up to date with his condition.
9. I advised he go to A&E but apparently he was told to stay away re possible further infection spread.
The coalface……….
So speaking only of deaths, Sweden has not seen any exponential growth
The numbers from Sweden fits an exponential trend much better than a linear trend. In a week, if the Swedish trend continues, they are looking at 150-200 dead.
Norway has more linear than exponential, similar to Korea. At worst case, exponential, we are still only max 35. The better linear fit shows 15. I am thinking this is way too slow. Things have to losen up, or we will be stuck in this mess forever.
LeSving wrote:
The numbers from Sweden fits an exponential trend much better than a linear trend. In a week, if the Swedish trend continues, they are looking at 150-200 dead.
I should have not used ‘exponential’ on my comment, I did not mean the mathematical concept. Looking at absolute numbers of victims of Covid19, even that prediction of 200, how does it compare to average deaths by respiratory issues?
1. Went to the Cheltenham Gold Cup horse racing. Corporate do. Friday 13th March.
2. Came back and felt uwell.
Can’t be this particular virus; it’s not anywhere near that quick.
I still don’t get the lack of test kits. There must be some massive cockup in distribution. Could there be a payment or contract dispute which is holding up deliveries? Nothing would surprise me. I’ve seen large roadworks sit dormant for a year because the contractor wasn’t getting paid. Massive traffic jams for a year.
In the current emotional ‘climate’ any fever or cough is going to make one’s mind go completely crazy. Multiply that for millions, and even without actual Covid19 related illness, you can totally see some parts of healthcare collapsing and being overrun by panicked people.
We would now seem to have some clarrity about what businesses can and cant open.
