BeechBaby wrote: However we need to understand what we are dealing with in FACT, not graphs, models and whimsical strategy. IMO
esteban wrote: If you wait until the hard facts are 100% established, the horse has left the barn and you are left with unmanageable situation.
esteban wrote: those model you disparage …
BeechBaby wrote: Where did I actually say that?
I apologize if I misunderstood you.
From the way you wrote the first quoted sentence, I read that between the lines. “no graphs, models and whimsical strategy” seem a bit disparaging to models to me.
esteban wote: The problem is the weak political leaders who are afraid/unable to LEAD, but are left dragged along by the events on ground.
BeechBaby wrote: Which ones precisely? Can you name them please.
You mean leaders or events?
ALL the western leaders have been very reluctant to impose hard measures at the time when it would have made a material difference, and are imposing them only gradually, when it is already too late. Leading would mean hard social distancing measures and ramped-up testing and contact tracing when it became apparent that the virus has escaped China, not when it is apparent to almost everybody that the situation is already really bad here.
esteban wote: The models clearly show that (due to long lag and huge undetected numbers) when the things get measurably worse, it is already too late to stop the wave.
BeechBaby wrote: And why is that precisely? The advice was clear. On symptoms detected self isolate, stay off work. The numbers were always going to get worse.
South Korea tells a different tale. It was not inevitable that we ended up in this mess.
The advice was weak, as it became apparent that there are asymptomatic spreaders. Aggressive testing + contact tracing, + preventive quarantine (and subsequent testing, to release them from quarantine early, if possible ) of all those coming from abroad was needed.
Another problem is general poor compliance of western public, combined with financial pressure to keep going to work. Hence, strict social distancing measures (and supportive financial measures to keep people at home) were needed much earlier.
Yes, that would have been unpopular. Therefore LEADERS were needed (= not afraid/able to take unpopular measures).
esteban wote: I see no point discussing here whether the raise of overall mortality is detectable or not – in two weeks time, it will be a moot point
BeechBaby wrote: Why is that precisely?
In two week’s time there will be over 100000 deaths worldwide and the signal will be impossible to ignore, even for blind ones. Isn’t that obvious?
esteban wrote: nobody speaks like that anymore (right now we stand at 15k+ deaths outside China, and still rising sharply).
BeechBaby wrote: Is that 15000 deaths with direct Corona virus infection, or with underlying health issues. Or would these people have died anyway? Without FACT we do not know because we do not know who was infected.
Underlying health issues does not mean immediate death. The west is quite good at keeping its old and sick people alive for decades. Frankly, how many over 50 have NO health issue at all? With the widespread obesity & prevalent indoor work, even the younger generation is in quite a bad shape overall. Watch some movies from 50’s/60’s to see how people looked then.
Yes, we do not know how many people are infected. I think it is safe to assume 10-20x the published confirmed cases. That does bring the death rate down, but does nothing for the collapsing health system. We do not need to know the precise numbers to know the things are bad a we should act NOW (or, better, two-three weeks ago).
Incidentally, one case where the facts are known quite well is Diamond Princess – they tested everybody coming off the ship. As of now, it stands 712 infected, 10 dead, 15 critical and 115 active. This means cca 1.4% death rate, with a good chance it will tick up to 2% (those critical are critical for a long time). Granted, older population….
esteban wrote:
South Korea tells a different tale. It was not inevitable that we ended up in this mess.
The advice was weak, as it became apparent that there are asymptomatic spreaders. Aggressive testing + contact tracing, + preventive quarantine (and subsequent testing, to release them from quarantine early, if possible ) of all those coming from abroad was needed.Another problem is general poor compliance of western public, combined with financial pressure to keep going to work. Hence, strict social distancing measures (and supportive financial measures to keep people at home) were needed much earlier.
The leaders have to work with what they’ve got. Hard lockdown would have been unworkable in western countries: there is not a culture of obedience, it would have been widely ignored, and enforcement with police/military would not be practical.
I’d rather not live in a Singapore-style society, but your mileage may vary.
Thank you for taking the time to respond and I agree with what you have said. Weak and lack of leadership completely agree. Couple of points though…
1.This started late 2019 with a Chinese scenario of a ‘flu like’ virus, similar to SARS.
2. it was then under containment procedures within China.
3. We then started to see house arrest, lock down, and the spraying of streets with chemicals.In China
4. It became apparent that this may not just be another flu like virus.
5. Then we had China border closures and the rest of the world on catch up.
6. We now have Global Pandemic, one third of the Global population under house arrest, politicians retreating to insular policies and population control. Read any of the scenario planning and it is clear we are in LOCK DOWN.
7. There is an enormous amount of mixed messaging and this leads to further confusion and panic.
I suggested early in the discussion that we required the leaders of say US/China/Russia, the Global influencers to stand up to the plate and lead. A global lead. This has not happened. We are where we are now.We still really do not understand clearly what we are dealing with?
Armchair observers have it easy. The actual leadership required at this moment is difficult to find.
Just for clarity on those early points.
China arrested the whilsteblower who made knowledge of this public after destorying samples before,
China only really acknowledged this once cases were found out of their country,
China held a potluck food sharing banquet for over 40’000 people in Wuhan,
China allowed in excess of 5 million people to get out of wuhan and abroad before locking down,
China knew people could be infectious and asymptomatic yet were allowing people to travel freely if with just temperature checks
We had the world health organisation saying travel should not be limited.
I agree that actual leadership and difficult decision making is certainly not easy, especially with the damage that will be done to global economies. But I really struggle to believe that this couldn’t have been either prevented or signiricantly reduced if China had just behaved properly and been honest.
There is an enormous amount of mixed messaging and this leads to further confusion and panic.
Only by people who are totally ignorant selfish and thick. The way this thing spreads is very well known now (pretty much like every other bug actually!) and consequently the countermeasures are obvious too.
There are no “mixed messages”. It is just very difficult or impossible to frame legislation which covers every possible human behaviour. So we don’t have a ban on private flying, or driving. Both are obviously 100% safe virus-wise (subject to precautions which are also obvious to anyone with more than 2 braincells) though both are discouraged non-specifically (note: not banned) unless “essential”. I am supposedly allowed 1 walk per day. But my walk is in deserted countryside, so 2 walks per day, and foraging a load of wild garlic on the way, are perfectly safe. For someone who takes the “catch every virus ever invented” London Underground to have their walk, 1 walk per day is probably a really dumb thing to do.
One pretty clear thing is 2m spacing, for which there is a good justification (the distance droplets fly out of one’s mouth is generally less, although a sneeze can be 5m AFAIK). But still so many people are too thick to see this. You should have seen Saturday here. Manic. It was obvious that on Sunday there would be a massive clampdown, as fast as they could draw up the list. And there was.
The people who get interviewed on the BBC and who blame “mixed messages” for doing something like going out in a tight group (young people generally) were merely carefully chosen by the interviewer for having an IQ in the bottom 10%. That, and picking someone obese and with a ton of body piercings are a standard media/PC tactic nowadays because picking someone who can string 5 words together meaningfully (and who might therefore have gone to a univvversiiitttyy) makes the broadcaster appear elitist.
We had the world health organisation saying travel should not be limited.
The WHO is a total waste of space AFAICT. Like GA organisations who deal with the CAAs and EASA, their hands are bound behind their back and for the same reasons.
this couldn’t have been either prevented or signiricantly reduced if China had just behaved properly and been honest.
Very much so, but there are so many other factors. Like accepting hundreds of thousands of skiers returning from the Alps without doing anything, without even asking them to self isolate. That one factor alone advanced the epidemic by probably weeks, and spread it to a number of countries which may otherwise have remained only lightly infected. It was obvious to me early Feb what was going on, and if it was obvious to me it was obvious to everyone else.
Unfortunately a lot of traders could be smarter too. Near here is a lovely little cafe, hidden in the countryside. They have a lot of customers and I used to walk there from where I work, most days. When the “takeaway only allowed” restriction came, they could have reinvented themselves (like many did) as a “take away”, by getting some paper plates etc. But because most punters cannot understand the “2m” bit, they would also have to put away their tables and chairs. Well, they did nothing and just carried on. It lasted just 1 day. Along with much of the UK countryside they got a big crowd. Probably somebody reported them to the police… now they are shut.
Peter wrote:
because picking someone who can string 5 words together meaningfully (and who might therefore have gone to a univvversiiitttyy) makes the broadcaster appear elitist.
Also because they will roll their eyes and perhaps give a pithy response to the broadcaster’s stupid question ;-)
BeechBaby wrote:
So any thoughts on what this may be? I have stated numerous times we require facts
I think SouthKorea numbers after 2 weeks of lockdown are true reflection of facts and they are gold standard for testing/tracing and medical care data, but still those will give you a gloomy view even in that optimistic scenario, 1-to-2.5 free transmission rate, 0.5% fatality rate, 5 days incubation and 2 week in hospital averages for 20% needing care
Throw this on any 100m population for the first season,
- Do nothing you get 30% exposed, 10m hospital peak in 3 months and 500k deaths
- Half transmission in 1 month and you get 5m hospital peak in 3months and 200k deaths
I am very optimistic that UK epidemic/medical numbers are transparent and UK NHS matches the one in SouthKorea 
, still the death/hospital numbers in that optimistic scenario do not look very healthy IMO to even count as “strong flu season”
For now we can’t rely on vaccines, mutations and group immunity (until next 2 years at least), so I am mainly following the news/facts about symptoms treatments than the news/facts about where does the UK sits between SouthKorea and Italy in terms of their epidemic data…
PS: of course we are talking about models but I like to debate model inputs values and validity of assumptions than personal opinions or last minute news (the topic has already gone south in the US as initially it was driven by media/politics opinion but luckily sanity starts to prevail again)
Re: China early non-response:
As with everything (especially personal relationships…), complaining what the others should have done is not helpful. The only thing you can do is focus on your own response. And there we (the west) failed miserably.
One anecdote from Slovakia:
- our first confirmed case got it from his son, who traveled to Venice in a tour group of 3 buses
- when the authorities confirmed the case, they asked the tour operator for the info about the people on those 3 buses
- none of those people has been contacted, none has been tested, none has been even asked to self isolate
- I think the whole continent is replete with stories like that, and that’s why we are where we are
South Korea is managing without hard lock-down, because they are actually serious about testing and contact tracing (and I think also the people care more about not infecting the others). They have been in tough situation with superspreaders in that sect, but still managed OK. They still need to maintain vigilance – beyond certain point, such approach does not work anymore. They are not there yet, Europe and USA are way beyond that point now.
The Chinese were trying to hush-hush it at the beginning, but eventually they were able to face the reality as it is and decided/were able to do what needed to be done (not only lock-down, but also building hospitals and flying in 50000 doctors and nurses, as well as hard chasing of cases outside Wuhan; the last one is especially impressive, given that they had a spread to all China provinces, and there has been exodus from Wuhan before the lockdown).
Re: mixed messages: Unfortunately, people hear what they want to hear. The situation is so much outside the scope of the normal experience, it is actually very difficult for a normal (even logical) person to really accept the reality, unless it hits him right in the face – and then it is already too late to do much about it. Precisely because of that a true leadership is needed – to take swift decisive action, when the masses are still in the early stages of denial. The problem is our political system selects for a different style of ‘leaders’ … :-(
And no, I haven’t got a slightest inclination for and authoritarian Putin/Xi-style leader, thank you. I lived the first two decades of my life under communism and have no intention to go back to anything similar. Still it does not prevent me to see the rot when it stares me in the face.
Peter wrote:
Very much so, but there are so many other factors. Like accepting hundreds of thousands of skiers returning from the Alps without doing anything, without even asking them to self isolate.
I totally agree, I was surprised by some I know going on holiday to various parts of europe at a time I was pretty much isolating. Even more surprised how they were let back in and allowed to travel around totally unchecked.
Near me there’s a boarding school which brings in money by bringing in a lot of chinese students, I was sure that them coming back was likely to be how it came in. Then I think the first case was a school ski trip returning from italy and back to school.
Graham wrote:
lung crystallisation
What is “lung crystallisation”? When I google it, it seems to be a synonym for, or symptom of, silicosis. But it can’t be that in this context, so what is it?
