esteban wrote:
I am not 100% sure what are you talking about here.
To Clarify I’m referring to the current movement where the government mouthpieces are trying to suggest that it may have been the American military who brought the virus over,
in combination with what they’ve been doing in Hong Kong etc and their media push, re-drawing boundaries, etc.
Whilst China are to blame for the start, our responses after it has got out are entirely down to our own countries management and running, which has been found to be pretty poor. It also seems people were / are unwilling to grasp the issue and take steps to minimise it without these draconian steps having to be brought in. I absolutely think that the people running around in groups and flaunting the directions would be the first screaming and demanding for help when something happens to them.
Graham, I agree for international pressue, it just doesn’t seem as if anyone was willing to take them on other than Trump. Not only the animal trade, but the organ harvesting they do and the gulag / re-education of the muslim uiygurs is pretty unpleasant stuff. If they’d just obey their WTO obligations they signed up to that would be a start.
I will admit the funny pictures have been pretty amusing
Off_Field wrote:
I am not 100% sure what are you talking about here.To Clarify I’m referring to the current movement where the government mouthpieces are trying to suggest that it may have been the American military who brought the virus over,
Ah, that explains it. :-)
When I see a title like that, I stop reading. Life is too short.
Netherlands is cautiously optimistic on the current evolution. Hospital admissions stabilised, and deaths have some downward tendency.
https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/current-information-about-novel-coronavirus-covid-19
There was some change to reporting of dearths, they were reporting as they learned about them, now reporting on actual day of death
Date of death is still missing for 18 people.
In Sweden, still more than 50% of known Covid-19 cases have been infected abroad. This suggests that although we certainly do have a general spread of the disease, it is not very rapid.
Ibra wrote:
for now all what matters for thinking about the impact of the virus in Italy going forward is 7% fatality rate
I just wanted to confirm that you are referring to % of known infections? I think several here tend to think that the number of infections isn’t really giving any meaningful data.
For the sake of the argument, what if the number of infected people is 10x bigger? Too much? Most people are asymptomatic which seems to be a funny way of saying they don’t get sick at all. But if 10 is too much, what if actual number is ‘only’ 2x? That leaves the mortality at 3.5%. If you combine it with the later revision of cause of deaths
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
we end up with ~ 0.4%?
I am focusing on actual deaths and excess mortality, as we have no hard data on infection numbers, it seems that % of that isn’t very informative.
Airborne_Again wrote:
Sweden is not, and we don’t seem to be in a worse situation than comparable countries who have lockdowns. It is “interesting” and time will tell.
Can one just go there and sit this one out, in relative freedom, or is Sweden also imposing quarantine on new arrivals?
Asking for a friend :-)
I have just lifted the following from the UK Governments website dated 19th March, Can someone please tell me WTF is going on?
Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.
The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.
The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.
The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.
Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.
The link for the non believers
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
More from the UK:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654
Could these deaths be prevented?
But what is not clear – because the modellers did not map this – is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.
Of course, this will never truly be known until the pandemic is over, which is why modelling is very difficult and needs caveats.
Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales – factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000.
The coronavirus deaths will not be in addition to these, as statistician Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, explains.
“There will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period.”
Airborne_Again wrote:
In Sweden, still more than 50% of known Covid-19 cases have been infected abroad. This suggests that although we certainly do have a general spread of the disease, it is not very rapid.
Since the similar result in Norway show that 1/3 is infected outside Norway and 2/3 is infected inland (or unknown), and we have more infected than Sweden, even though we are half the population and stronger restrictions, this would suggest that Sweden has testes way too few to have any idea of the real situation.
hmng wrote:
Can one just go there and sit this one out, in relative freedom, or is Sweden also imposing quarantine on new arrivals?
AFAIK there are no quarantine requirements or other restrictions for travellers from within the EU/EES. Sweden has not suspended Schengen. Sweden has followed the EU agreement to close the EU outer border, so travellers from outside the EU/EES will generally not be admitted unless they are Swedish citizens/residents.
