How many people are hospitalised / on intensive care for respiratory diseases, and tested negative for Covid-19?
https://www.dailywire.com/news/oxford-epidemiologist-heres-why-that-doomsday-model-is-likely-way-off
“Professor Gupta lead a team of researchers at Oxford University in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.”
(…)
The Oxford group is working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing on the general U.K. population later this week by using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Gupta explained.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” the professor said.
“Levitt, who accurately predicted the slowdown of coronavirus cases in China, has been making the rounds with various media outlets to discuss his findings on the most recent data from nearly 80 countries involving the global pandemic. Like several other experts, Levitt maintains that the threat of COVID-19 is less severe than many reports make it appear.”
Finally, also the Financial Times is asking some questions, but of course you can argue that they just want to save the economy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
Peter wrote:
Another UK “patient zero” has been apparently identified. He was another skier who like so many caught it in Ischgl, Austria, in a hot and crowded apres ski bar back in December.
Funny it takes 3 months to find something obvious 
It means the UK has 1 million infected already which is both good and bad news
When we exercise hard, we cause some inflammation to our heart for a day or two. If we then contract Co-vid, which puts pressure on our hearts, the outcome may be significantly worse than average.
It appears well known that athletes do have bad ECG traces, from the stress to the heart.
It means the UK has 1 million infected already which is both good and bad news
There are various problems with that Oxford study. It doesn’t explain why so many hospital staff are getting it and dying, and this is obviously happening on a short timescale. OTOH it has been argued they are getting a high / multiple exposure, and hospital staff are often not in great health. I used to hang out with some nurses in the late 1970s and apart from 100% smoking they would drink me under the table anytime, and that was just after I had spent 3 years mostly getting p1ssed at univ.
How many people are hospitalised / on intensive care for respiratory diseases, and tested negative for Covid-19?
Good Q. A quick google find this which says 17k die in the UK annually from the common flu. However
Peter wrote:
they don’t all turn up in their hundreds or thousands suddenly and fill up the hospitals whose facilities have over many years been optimised for the “usual” stuff
Again, this not universal nor widespread. It doesn’t take much to overload a Hospital, Italy had it before, Portugal had it before.
Switzerland I’m sure has lots of skiers, was supposed to be behind Italy by days, and hospitals continue calm.
Peter wrote:
it is a lot more infectious;
It was claimed to be it, but current WHO stance on it:
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza
“This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-19.”
Peter wrote:
it kills a much higher % (my above comment about hospital staff)
I have yet to see numbers that show that it kills more than any other virus of that family.
As for medical staff, it is a tragedy and should be looked into. You propose several possibilities. Overwork, stress, all caused by hospitals overrun by a panicked population, among patients with all kind of nasty pathogens, is not going to help either.
Some sites I use to keep up to date:
The overall map
The evolution (I find this chart very useful to compare trends, with the understanding that most countries are under-testing).
The underlying article is good too.
Finally, a follow-up to an article I posted some pages ago, about what to do.
hmng wrote:
It doesn’t take much to overload a Hospital
I made this point before and it is important. You just need noticeably more than the usual amount of one particular thing.
The excess mortality question will be interesting to examine when it is all over. The chap on BBC R4 yesterday morning put it very succinctly:
UK Covid-19 deaths yesterday were 43, less than half the 87 who died the day before. Today’s number should give us a lot more information about the direction this is heading in.
I guess 12 brilliant scientists, doctors and professors are all conspiring to go against the current narrative.
What exactly they would earn by doing that, beside scorn from so many, it beyond my compression.
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/
The great thing about science is that people can disagree and discuss freely. That’s how it should be.
Usually, when there is total agreement on something, it indicates that a massive cockup is brewing
Another item which goes against the “Oxford theory” is the recent “cruise ship laboratory experiment”.
