RobertL18C wrote:
Carissimi, se chiama Lombardía
Grazie per l’informazione !
Peter wrote:
Just heard of an aquaintance who is seriously ill in hospital in London, and just walked past a group of youngsters who couldn’t care less. The distance between the latter and the former is about 3 weeks.
I am inclined to feel most will get it – eventually?
Somewhere around 65% might confer herd immunity, and the chances of catching it go down quite dramatically.
Until then, a vaccine is the only alternative – maybe 12 months away – who knows perhaps sooner.
So as the self isolation tap is turned off and on, either you stay pretty much self isolated, for perhaps up to six months on to a year, depending on how long herd immnuinty takes, or it dies out (probably not all that likely) or, at some point, inevitably you will be exposed.
Why might you think otherwise?
Peter wrote:
This is a nice visualisation
Yes it is. However, what it shows is merely that when the number of new cases starts to decrease, then this is a sign of the disease is stopping to spread. It does it in a very complex way, but it can also be shown using a simple straight forward graph.
A more accurate way, and the way that is used by the health care, is to show a graph of the number of hospitalized persons.
A more accurate way, and the way that is used by the health care, is to show a graph of the number of hospitalized persons.
Yes; the numbers in hospital and the numbers of dead, are the only reliable stats in this whole thing. Maybe also the number recovered, but that has a very long lag on it.
The rest of the numbers is very dependent on testing and the population profile. For example the data for Portugal here seems meaningless, especially if you look at the age profile.
or it dies out (probably not all that likely)
I think we just need to see over the coming weeks or months. These things have fizzled out before, long before affecting the whole population.
Admittedly that may never happen in areas where people are still close together. There are very large variations regionally. Astonishingly small numbers for Brighton, for example, which is full of people who one would expect couldn’t care less.
That’s a brilliantly informative PDF, kwlf. local copy
Thanks for finding it.
Roughly 1/2 who get into critical care don’t come out.
That is very different from Italy or Spain where, based on the various videos online, most die. But that could be because they are (again, reportedly) not ventilating people over 65.
The report does state a bias towards shorter stay patients, due to the moving situation.
Other genders?
BeechBaby wrote:
Others take an entirely differing viewpoint based on FACT.
I quoted facts demonstrating that the death rate in Lombardy (English), in der Lombardei (German), en Lombardia (Italian) is 50% above normal.
How does the viewpoint that Covid-19 does not create significantly excessive deaths compared to a bad flu season (which, IIRC is your’s and hwlf’s view) compatible with these facts? Or do I misunderstand your opinion?
Beechbaby – something I was going to bring up re. the downgrading of the severity of the virus. My understanding is that this has been done partly out of recognition that the virus is less lethal on an individual level than hitherto feared, but also just out of pragmatic reasons. The downgrade means that cases can be treated at non-specialist hospitals which is a practical necessity now that there are so many cases, and also probably justifies asking doctors and nurses to treat it even when they have run out of the proper masks etc…
Early on, any swabs that were taken had to be put in a bag then sealed in a plastic tub then sealed in a bag again then taken to the virology centre by a special courier. This meant a lot of expense and delay in getting results processed. Now some of these restrictions have been relaxed, I think about the same time that the status of the virus was downgraded though I don’t know for certain that was the case.
