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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

While I don’t want to judge that ‘evidence based’ team by a single chart, the R0 values for different diseases are obviously not like for like, otherwise we would all have died of MERS or HIV.

So I looked it up – the quoted magnitude for MERS appears to be for nosocomial (in-hospital) infections, not the general population.

And they forget about the serial interval, which together with sub-populations explains why HIV with it’s high R0 has not killed everyone yet, either.

Shoddy.

Biggin Hill

It turns out that the rate of growth of number of infected vs R is pretty flat around R=1, which is not what you might expect. I’ve been trying to calibrate my model and over a range of 40% it makes little difference. With R in the region 1.0-1.5, what happens is you get a fairly constant number of infected over a very long period (years). (The classic SIR model doesn’t predict this, but as I’ve said I don’t believe it makes any sense at all except as a very general concept).

LFMD, France

We have good example here in Croatia on virus spreading speed, still developing these days. During the lockdown, especially enforced on the islands (totally cut off with practically no ability to go there and leave, 0 infected people) a patient from island of Brac (male, 81) was admitted to Split hospital because of cardiovascular problems. Tested negative on SARS-Cov-2 when admitted, he successfully recovered and was discharged from hospital. However, during his stay the virus entered this department of hospital and he got infected. Unfortunately, by someone’s mistake he wasn’t tested before leaving the hospital. When he reached the island, he was visited by multiple relatives and in corse of 2 days 30 people was infected (22 on day 1 plus 8 on day 2 when someone realized what was going on) with 70 more samples of secondary contacts still being under analysis.

So while the rest of the country is practically out of lockdown (from today almost all businesses work, including restaurants and cafes, while gyms and similar will reopen during this week), Brac is totally sealed and everything returned to lockdown measures like a month ago with ban on leaving the place of residence and only food stores open.

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

That’s really sad for Brac, but they are doing exactly the right thing.

This virus is incredibly infectious. Look at the business in S Korea, with those night clubs where 1 person has generated a huge infection.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

That’s really sad for Brac, but they are doing exactly the right thing.

Yes, the outbreak will die out but the island will remain sealed at least two weeks. We’ll probably know the total reach of outbreak in following days.

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

This has to be a p1sstake surely

This is London Underground

Give it 2 weeks and the hospitals will start filling up again.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Another interesting article on how the virus spreads:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Avionics geek.
Somewhere remote in Devon, UK.

wigglyamp wrote:

Another interesting article on how the virus spreads:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

We already have it in this thread, here on page 116

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

Emir – link appears to be no longer working.

To get a unique URL to a post, you cannot use the browser URL because that depends on the configured user-specific client page size. Right click on the post number:

The URL is this

Latest top class scientific advice for everyone

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom
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