Graham wrote:
And if you do eliminate it completely in a particular country then, unless you have the world’s most draconian border controls, sooner or later someone will bring it back in.
That’s what is happening in Norway now. The virus has never been completely eliminated, but new cases are traced back to people coming from abroad, Sweden mostly. Even though Sweden is closed for most people, work travel is allowed. You also have to weigh different factors. Closing the borders is a rather severe attack on peoples right to travel (like absolute draconian severe). Everybody has to live with the virus, some way or the other, and as long it is kept under control, we can live rather normal lives. It’s just a tad irritating that a few countries simply cannot get their act together, do what it takes for a few weeks and get control of the situation.
Most European countries had low two digit numbers but now things are returning to where they were in mid February. There are super spreader events all over the place.
It is clear that the 2nd wave is in full start up. What is required now is renewed lockdown in place and strict mask wearing everywhere plus closing all borders even internally between affected areas. Quarantine for everyone entering. CAT needs to be ground stopped for all passenger transport. NOW. Otherwise all that has been achieved was for nothing.
This has to be kept up until there is NO new infection within a month. And then borders to places who do not have zero stay shut.
There are local events but this was expected; the system is supposed to deal with it, by tracking. The alternative is a collapsed economy, the army patrolling the streets, etc.
Unless you are happy to stay in the countryside and not go anywhere far, for probably years (from conversations, I think many older people living in the countryside will choose that option) a vaccine now seems to be the only endgame, but then some % of people will never take it – antivaxxers are a big fashion these days; they really believe Bill Gates is behind all this 
For the UK at least, and probably most countries in Europe (data is here) the infections have sort of levelled off but are not obviously rising, yet, despite the valliant efforts to spread it by the BLM protesters and the crowds on the beaches
Germany and France are similar
It may be too early to tell however, since most of the above activity involves young people and they tend to be asymptomatic. It will thus be two incubation times before their parents end up in hospitals. The next 2 weeks will be interesting…
Surely a second wave should be up to the order of the initial wave and occur in the same area? I must admit I’m surprised that with all the protesting, pictures of large gatherings, there doesn’t seem to be any large uptick. I’m wondering if this is down to the seemingly very low chances of catching it if you’re outside.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
What is required now is renewed lockdown in place and strict mask wearing everywhere plus closing all borders even internally between affected areas. Quarantine for everyone entering. CAT needs to be ground stopped for all passenger transport. NOW. Otherwise all that has been achieved was for nothing.
Right….So the last 3 months of less than 50% economic activity, the millions of jobs lost, lives ruined, this doesnt register with you then?
You can start by financing me personally, because my livelihood has been trashed and the chances are I wont have a job again in my proffession for at least a year even if the economy starts again this summer, probably more like 18+ months. I remember looking at the actions of governments voluntarily trashing the world economy 3 months ago and thinking “WTF are they doing?? Were only just recovering from the last financial downturn”…
Financial considerations arent enough? Then consider the social implications of Lockdowns. Schools being closed affecting kids education – do you seriously think home schooling is working? General health of the population when they feel they shouldnt (or cant) go to see a doctor or dentist. So who thinks that the widespread demonstrations recently after the death of the american being arrested would have happened if there had no lockdown? If 100000 people turn up to a beach you cant police social distancing or mask wearing. Im pretty sure that any government attempting another lockdown would face serious civil disobedience, not from a fringe minority, but from the majority.
Surely a second wave should be up to the order of the initial wave and occur in the same area?
Yes I am sure it would – because immunity (in all its forms) is clearly below 10% – if things repeated exactly. But there are changes; lots of people are being more careful. Lots of older people are being really careful; they know they are at a high risk. There are measures in workplaces etc which are not going away anytime soon, etc. I think the significant variations between countries which appear to be similar otherwise suggest that small changes make a big difference.
small changes make a big difference.
I really think there’s something in this, possibly moreso than the lockdowns. Keeping a healthier distance, hygine, hand washing improvements and avoiding being in packed environments. Whilst you do see people ignoring this, I do think most people seem to have made changes.
I doubt any European country will reimpose nationwide lockdowns. Maybe small localised ones if there is a significant issue. But we have fired the national lockdown weapon and that is that. Economies can’t afford another lockdown and governments know that.
I think that means we are better able to deal with flare ups. Until a vaccine is developed this virus is just something we will have to learn how to deal with much like HIV.
we will have to learn how to deal with much like HIV.
Hmmm… different methodology 
HIV is much easier. Find a nice gurl and stick with her OR keep the trousers all the way up in all relevant scenarios.
Peter wrote:
Hmmm… different methodology
You miss my point. There is no vaccine but there are treatment methodologies and behavioural changes that have caused the death rate to plummet.
