Texas last time I checked was number 40 of 50 US states in terms of death rate from Coronavirus, about 20% lower than Germany. I finally did stop counting from the top and instead counted up 10 from the bottom.
What is most interesting to me about the current US situation is that people who get Coronavirus now are not dying of it to the extent they did in New York or Europe so I assume they must be getting appropriate treatment. The published infection rate in e.g. California has been rising continuously for months, rising over that period by a factor of roughly 10, without a substantial response in the death rate. I think finding out why that is the case may be significant – more so than totalitarian political rhetoric. It is not the purpose of US federal or state governments to remove Constitutional freedom indefinitely, for any reason, including stopping people from getting sick and recovering. In this case the objective of short term lockdowns was to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed, preventing people from accessing treatment.
As I mentioned in another post, the US daily fatality rate is now about 1/3 of its peak, at which point just New York and surrounding areas (with lockdown etc) had daily fatality totals substantially higher than the 50 states combined have now (roughly 1500 daily for New York etc then versus 900 for the US combined now). Here’s the US data.
Silvaire wrote:
Texas last time I checked was number 40 of 50 US states in terms of death rate from Coronavirus, about 20% lower than Germany. I finally did stop counting from the top and instead counted up 10 from the bottom
The major wave only started in Texas in the second half of June – therefore comparison of fatality rates with regions where the wave has already passed 2 months ago is not very insightful. For the people who die it typically takes 3-4 weeks from diagnosis to death. That would imply that in Texas the major fatality wave is to be expected in the next 2 weeks.
This is unfortunately consistent with the numbers we see in the last 3 days in Texas (however, it’s only three days so we can still hope for a statistical artifact).
I would so wish that Texas proves that learnings from elsewhere are not applicable – unfortunately I have little hope and absolutely no data to support this wish…
Here’s the infection and death rates for California that I mentioned, over the past several months. The death rate today is the same as it was in April, the infection rate is roughly 10 times higher, having risen continuously over the period giving plenty of time for the expected delay.
Infection Rate Over Months
Death Rate Over Same Months Long Period
Malibuflyer wrote:
This comparison shows, that only very strict measures (like school closures, etc.) make a real difference. Leaving schools, malls, churches open is unfortunately not a lockdown.
School closures make no difference. As you might know, Sweden did not close its primary schools (up to age 15) nor did it close kindergartens. The effect of this has been carefully studied. We already know that in Sweden schoolteachers and other people working in schools have not run higher risk of contracting the decease compared to other professions. A recent comparison with Finland (who did close schools) shows that the incidence of Covid-19 in the age group 1-19 in Sweden was no larger than in Finland. (Even though Finland overall had many fewer cases per capita.)
Malibuflyer wrote:
Leaving schools, malls, churches open is unfortunately not a lockdown.
All the above were closed in CA from mid March to mid-May / early June (the reopening was not done uniformly across the state).
Mooney_Driver wrote:
which country is this map for regarding to quarantine? Norway?
It’s for entering Norway.
172driver wrote:
All the above were closed in CA from mid March to mid-May / early June (the reopening was not done uniformly across the state).
The effect of California ‘lockdown’ is to control anything operating under direct Government control or license. Counties can individually apply to the State to change their restrictions on business, but state approval is required and it is done on a county by county basis. For example some counties are currently enforcing restrictions on restaurants, typically against indoor dining, and I believe others are not. Several have largely eliminated tourism by closing hotels to people who are not essential workers etc.
The California ‘shelter in place’ order on healthy individuals was respected for a while but slowly ignored, now completely ignored, but never rescinded. Also never meaningfully enforced because the police know where that would go – likely to some amount of blood in the streets and police officers being at physical risk. Americans, even Californians who many would say aren’t really Americans, may respect government authority over business licenses etc, but will only tolerate so much invasive and dictatorial government in their own lives, directly. We are not Germans, and I certainly do not want government attempting to ‘protect’ me from nature by removing my rights and economic well being. In relation to living like that indefinitely, for an uncapped period, I’d rather be dead, literally.
Now this is really scary. Brain damage as a consequence. What else will this thing do?
https://academic.oup.com/brain/article/doi/10.1093/brain/awaa240/5868408
Yes; you get strokes in the brain.
Reading the PDF from the above article:
The patients included 24 males and 19 females with ages ranging from 16–85 years.
The 10 patients described (Patients 1–10, six female, four male; four White, five Black and
one Asian) had a parainfectious or septic encephalopathy with delirium. These patients (e.g.
Vignette A) were mostly >50 years old and presented with confusion and disorientation, with
psychosis in one, and seizures in another.
So 10/43 (23%) got “brain issues” and/or cardio issues, caused seemingly by blood clots.
It would seem the 43 patients were selected from a hospital, hopefully randomly, but it’s not clear on a speed-read of the PDF.
It’s a crappy disease and you don’t really want to get it.
Silvaire wrote:
We are not Germans, and I certainly do not want government attempting to ‘protect’ me from nature by removing my rights and economic well being. In relation to living like that indefinitely, for an uncapped period, I’d rather be dead, literally.
Don’t be ridiculous. You would rather die than follow a government mandated heath instruction??
