I have developed similar thinking to @Airborne_Again over the last few weeks. I used to believe that lockdown was the answer, and it certainly seemed that way after the experiences of Italy, Spain and France. But look at Sweden, no lockdown and it would seem no big second wave. I don’t blame governments for acting in what they think is the right way, providing that is they do genuinely think that way. After all would I do any better if I was in Government? Probably not. That’s not to forgive politicians for lying to the people or false promises for political expediency.
Similarly one has to be careful what one reads on social media, or the media in general. Often the people who write or say things have no more access to the truth than “the man on the Clapham omnibus” (older posters may recall this phrase.)
And finally we have our own built in bias to the information we receive. The dangers of “confirmation bias” is something as pilots we learn or hopefully learn to avoid at all costs.
Airborne_Again wrote:
We’ll see in a year’s time or so who is right
If both of us are around to see it. I hope you will be.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
If both of us are around to see it. I hope you will be.
I think that’s unnecessary pessimism. I don’t know how old you both are, but even if you’re fairly old then based on the fact that you’re fit enough to hold an aviation medical your chances of surviving a Covid-19 infection are incredibly high. Not only that but your chances of being infected in the first place, provided you take some basic sensible precautions, are incredibly low.
I now know two people personally who tell me they know somebody personally who has had COVID. In both cases I’m told they recovered in a week. However, it is still true that I don’t know anybody directly who has had it, with any kind of outcome.
Having regard for your fellow man principally involves respecting their right to manage their own life, and accepting that management of your own life needs to accommodate and accept their choices and not dictate them to match your perceived needs.
Because we didn’t have any kind of lockdown while our cousins did
Well. As for myself, I have been working, shopping, living my live exactly as before. I have never worn a mask 
The only lockdown I experienced personally was when the ATC closed down all VFR flights. And that had little to do with the virus or contamination per se, but a result of the ATC going into high survivability mode (is my best expression aka panic mode to be sure to have enough people to serve high necessity flights )
But then, we have only had a fraction of deaths compared with Sweden, and so has also the other Nordic countries. At the start, no one knew how to handle this plague. Now we know a lot more. Social distance, hygiene and staying at home when sick solves all of it.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
It is probably a simple psychological thing, which leads people to throw away science in favour of half baked theories and social media.What is needed to kill this virus epidemic out once and for good is very uncomfortable and has, now that it has gone its way, gone beyond the capabilities of society. People are therefore desparate for someone to tell them it’s all bollox and they should go on with their lifes. So they will until they get sick themselfs.
Looking at accounts from earlier pandemics such as the Russian Flu (which actually was a corona virus) and the Spanish Flu, the same mechanisms are seen again. Nothing has changed, only that the means of every nincompoop who should be sitting quietly hiding his own stupidity to publish worldwide via Social Media has amplified the effect of distrust and outright anger. I would not be surprised, if in the end social media may start civil unrest or even civil war amongst people.
Many folks do expose themselfs in ways it is hard to stomach and I think in a lot of ways the Covid debate has educated many of us about what people they were actually dealing with… it was horriffic to see for me how people I used to like and trust have turned out to have very little regard for their fellow mankind. I am sure that the circle of real friends we have will change massively as a result. Mine has and it has become a lot smaller.
I think it is a simple psychological thing.
It is doubtful the mortality rate is hgih enough to really make people jumpy. Possible if it were allowed to run, it might be, but when you hear of perhaps 1 or 2 people being seriously ill in your friendship group if it were allowed to run, and that is assuming a reasonably sized friendship group, I suspect it isnt enough to really make most people scared. Especially for the young the mortality is far further removed and the vast majority will not know any of their friends of a similiar age that end up in hospital, never mind die.
That is the simple reality. I suspect unless people feel it is having a direct impact on them they feel too far removed from the consequence.
The press possibly dont help because the tragedy that unfolds in hospitals when the cases grow is not given too much air time, and then the detail also isnt too graphic.
From today’s news etc, it appears the UK has similar rules to say Germany. The difference is that the young Brits don’t give a damn about this and pile into pubs and bars knowing they will catch it if even 1 person in the room has got it.
We live opposite a pub and see this all the time. It’s hopeless. I reckon there will be a shutdown of the whole scene, except where the seating is outdoors.
Peter wrote:
We live opposite a pub and see this all the time. It’s hopeless. I reckon there will be a shutdown of the whole scene, except where the seating is outdoors.
I think weather is the main issue there, versus customer choice. Can that pub move its service outside, and how effectively? We’re close with a restaurant/bar owner near Munich. The first thing he did was move the majority of his service outside, spending money to do so in a fairly weatherproof fashion, and his customers liked the result. He also utilized a long disused kitchen service window to create a drive through pickup window… the sign to announce it mixes traditional dialect and a reference to McDonalds, which is funny. That’ll keep him going at least until November or so.
We eat out a lot here but I’ve only once eaten inside a restaurant in some months, aided by good weather and others preferring the same even after that particular ‘direction’ to restaurants was removed locally. When I did eat inside a restaurant it was in an area (Curry County, Oregon) where there have been 27 total CV cases and no deaths. That meets my risk management criteria!
Peter wrote:
From today’s news etc, it appears the UK has similar rules to say Germany. The difference is that the young Brits don’t give a damn about this and pile into pubs and bars knowing they will catch it if even 1 person in the room has got it.
I’m not sure whether (young) Germans behave any better than their British counterparts. Munich will apparently introduce mandatory wearing of masks even outside, in public areas, because infections have been rising rapidly.
Oktoberfest would have begun last weekend, and was obviously cancelled. But now everyone there seems to celebrate their own little Oktoberfests, a perfect opportunity for Corona to spread…
Well Silvaire,
However, it is still true that I don’t know anybody directly who has had it, with any kind of outcome.
That does not mean nobody does just because in your area there are none you know personally. I by now have one close friend dead after 4 weeks of unspeakable suffering as well as about 15 people I know who had it. The “lightest case” took 4 weeks to recover and some of the others were in severe conditions. All suffer after effects. I know of several pilots whose after effects have prevented them from the qualifying for their medicals. Lung and or heart issues.
Personally I am high risk due to blood group A+ , age and overweight. So I may assume that if I get it that it will be bad. Even if I should survive it I may expect to loose my medical.
All that let’s me take it as seriously as I can. But many factors are out of my control.
