hmng wrote:
The prospect, for most citizens, that we’ve wasted nearly a year of our lives for no good reason is just too bitter a pill to swallow. Most of us are happier telling ourselves that it was all warranted, and for the greater good. "
So on point it is painful.
johnh wrote:
Nobody seems to have picked up on the point from the UK map a few dozen posts ago that SE England is doing MUCH better than the north. Why?
Income and education is a huge driver of risk – because it influences many of the behavioral factors plus it influences your standard of living (e.g. micro population density – it’s a difference if you live in your own house or share a 3ft corridor with 50 other families in your building…). In the US, behavior related to churches can also explain part of the differences.
johnh wrote:
Not enough to take R below 1, but enough to get it below 1.5. My model showed – and the reality now is showing it too – that at 1.5 you don’t get “exponential” growth
By definition, R is the exponent in an exponential function – therefore every R above 1 leads to exponential growth.
But “exponential growth” is not automatically a problem as we do not have exponential growth forever anyways. And two days of exponential growth is meaningless – 3 days of “exponential growth” is not an issue. The question therefore is not if or if not we have exponential growth but how long and how the exponent changes over that time…
The one thing that is obvious to me, is that the vast majority of people believe what it suits them to believe.
If you feel safe or have lots to lose by a lockdown, or just want to be able to socialise as normal, then you believe the lockdowns are unjustified.
If you feel concerned, or in an at risk group, or don’t suffer too much from a lockdown, then you believe that they make total sense.
Once you’ve identified with one side or the other, it becomes virtually impossible to change your mind. Partially because you don’t want your mind to be changed (that admits you were wrong originally….and subconsciously the mind doesn’t like to admit it’s wrong, even to itself), but also because we tend to read media that agrees with our opinion (and quickly dismiss that which we already disagree with), and because social media makes that easier by feeding us with media that already agrees with our view point.
In the end there is little any of us can do to change public policy, so we can just look after ourselves and accept that politicians will make the decisions, guided by public health medics, and get on with our own lives based on the restrictions placed on us. By next summer the worst of it will all be over no matter what our opinion is now 
The old saying that nobody ever changed their mind on the internet is probably true 
However, one can still learn.
This Boeing study is very interesting. It suggests flying is very safe. Of course the rest of the process (airport queues etc) is another matter.
But what will happen to my Avgas burning aeroplanes?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/shopping-i-can-t-really-remember-what-that-is/
Edited to add…..The great reset has begun under the guise of a Global Pandemic….
Peter wrote:
(which is why when you go on holiday abroad, most Brits you meet are from the North)
I’m not sure that’s the principal reason: if you lived in the north you’d know how terrible northern weather is most of the year. The south east of England is dryer than some Medeterranean countries, and has plenty of heat, so there’s really no need to go to to the Med. Where I live, 20C is a heatwave and going in the sea actually is actually painful for the first 10 minutes. When I lived in Hayling Island, a swim in the sea (while not quite as warm as the Med) didn’t have that first ten minutes of abject pain when you get in.
johnh wrote:
that at 1.5 you don’t get “exponential” growth, you get a fluctuating, slowly increasing rate
Any increasing rate is exponential, even 1.01. It’s just a lower exponent than, say, 3.
Just heard some really bad news about Belgium, but no analysis. Can anyone from Belgium suggest why this might be?
Peter wrote:
Just heard some really bad news about Belgium, but no analysis. Can anyone from Belgium suggest why this might be?
Good to see they have banned street prostitution. Nothing like getting your priorities right…
https://www.thebulletin.be/coronavirus-belgium-information-covid-19-questions-answers
Peter wrote:
which is still one of the wealthiest regions in the EUThat surprises me… AIUI the factors in N Italy were
I lived in Milan for about a year, admittedly in the 90s, and it certainly was/is far wealthier than the rest of of Italy. The place felt more like Munich than Rome. At least at the time the health system was definitely on a par with say Germany, France or Austria. I haven’t been back in many years now, but from what I hear the whole country (Italy) has essentially been on a downward trajectory for the past 20 years or so, so my experience may be not be correct anymore.
