This video, like so many, would be fine with just the sound track 
but it has some interesting bits
At 7:48 it has this interesting snippet
on fuel prices paid by the airlines.
This is another interesting data point; not surprising
1/3 showing no symptoms. It also appears, from elsewhere, that this is mainly younger people, and that older people get a temperature (or worse) pretty reliably.
The same liter that would have cost GA pilots 2,20 Euro in January, 2020 costs about 2,10 Euro. 
This is another interesting data point; not surprising
Unless I missed something, it makes no sense – 107 cases in 26,549 is 0.4%, not 4%.
Also, with 4-5% of the population being around 550,000 and 257 deaths, mortality rate would be 0.05%, which would be fantastic if true, but is also way off what is measured elsewhere.
I think somewhere, somebody moved a decimal point by one digit, there numbers are off by around a factor of 10.
0.5% mortality rate (so far, with a few people already ill bound to die) is more plausible.
Yes; my comment was on the roughly 1/3 being asymptomatic. The other numbers (which I didn’t spot) are clearly a cockup.
This (sorry but I can’t find a link not behind a paywall, other than the Daily Trash) is interesting. It suggests a lockdown doesn’t do much. People are catching the virus by poor hygiene.
If you stay at home, how will you catch it in the first place? They have the same permissions a we do in the UK right now. So they must be getting it when shopping, or undeclared socialising.
I have always suspected that the govt won’t want to readily disclose that supermarkets are really dangerous, because there is no solution to it; the doorstep food delivery services are way short of capacity to cope with the whole country.
It seems to me the research in the area of how the virus is transmitted is very week. Yes, of course we know it is droplet transmission, and I think it is obvious if an infected person sneezes or coughs over you, it will transmitt. What we dont know is the amount of virus particles that are necessary to transmit an active infection, and, indeed whether this varies from person to person. My guess is that it does vary from person to person. The scientific papers talk about viral load, but also how active the immune system of the recipient already is, and whether or not the mucus coating of the repsiratory tract is in good condition. Partly, it would seem this is part of the explanation as to why more elderly people appear more likely to become infected, aside from how well they then do. In the summer, when we are outside our throats tend to be less dry, simply we produce more mucus, and we tend to drink more. As to surface contamination, it seems to me the science is very week. Yes, we know the RNA is detectable on surfaces, but it seems to me we have very little idea what virus load is threshold to risk becoming infected. Similarly, in the Summer, there is evidence that UV and the drying effects of the sun mean the virus is quickly degraded on surfaces that are exposed to either as any water coating rapidly evaporates. Of course, it is very difficult to entirely see how the science can be done anyway, which is doubtless part of the problem.
Logically I dont entirely see why supermarkets present an especially high risk. The social distancing is now well enforced. That leads to contamination on surfaces both arising from package handling before delivery, and in the supermarket, but, as I suggest the evidence, is very far from clear that you are likely to pick up enough of a viral load from a contaminated surface, unless it has very recently been contaminated and there is a saliva coating on the surface.
I have taken a particular interest in the West Indies. All the islands until pretty recently had a steady flow of European and North Americans, it is peak holiday season after all. Yet I dont think any of the holiday islands at the moment have suffered especially badly. I believe when I last checked St Lucia may have eliminated the virus. Yes, small communities, and they have both instigated varying degrees of lock down and tracing. However, I wonder if the constantly high temperatures, high levels of UV and a very outdoors lifestyle are also factors. I know that doesnt explain the story in Brazil on the other hand, although I think the lifestyle may be sufficiently different to account partly.
Clearly, I dont have the answers, just conjecture. However, unless we are not being told, I am not sure the science is any more insightful, it seems to me a lot is guess work and intuition. the reality i suspect is we really dont have an especially good idea how respiratory viruses transmit in the real world, other than if some coughs or sneezes close to you, you are probably in trouble.
I did read recently that if you’re around infected people, you’re something like 18 times more likely to catch it in an indoor setting compared to an outdoor setting, and this does seem to make sense: after all, indoors the air is often rather still and stagnant, and you may spend a lot more time close to someone indoors, but outdoors there’s almost always some wind and turbulence which will rapidly disperse anything, as well as a lot more UV light (even when it’s cloudy).
Logically I dont entirely see why supermarkets present an especially high risk.
I recon the problem is that most people are totally clueless about personal hygiene and simply touch everything. Normally you get away with that (we all just get the odd cold or something) but in this case if you catch it the chances are that you will definitely know about it.
From a public policy POV I would fully expect the govt to suppress any research showing supermarkets are particularly dangerous.
you’re something like 18 times more likely to catch it in an indoor setting compared to an outdoor setting
Yes; I think this has been obvious for many years. Look at how often one gets ill after an airline flight. Yes I know somebody will jump in now and say they never got ill after an airline flight Or, anecdotally (because one can’t be sure) after going to get a haircut and sitting in the little room packed with people in the queue.
Peter wrote:
Yes I know somebody will jump in now and say they never got ill after an airline flight
Jump! Jump!
Peter wrote:
govt to suppress any research
Gotta love a good conspiracy theory.
