I have now come to the view that all lockdowns have been pointless, as they were done.
The lockdowns were not pointless, but they were made pointless by the early and reckless reopening of everything. The only way the lockdowns would have helped was if they were kept in place until the new infection rate was ZERO for a month.
Even worse, there won´t be more lockdowns as the people won´t accept and abide by them. Therefore we will likely see uncontrolled spread in the 2nd wave which will make the 1st wave look tame.
i am more and more convinced that covid will change society and behaviour for good but it will probably take a couple of million deaths before the last dunderheads have understood and take it serious.
Or as a friend with more religious affiliation mentioned, one of the riders of the Apokalypse happens to spread sickness. The next one would be war. Both are very much in the scope of possibility, so maybe the Mormons are right after all.
Even worse, there won´t be more lockdowns as the people won´t accept and abide by them. Therefore we will likely see uncontrolled spread in the 2nd wave which will make the 1st wave look tame.
We’ll see what happens over the next few weeks in the USA. If it’s all a damp squib then we can all sigh with relief. If not then I suspect we’ll still have time to firm up our measures in time to cushion the worst effects of a second wave.
I am more and more convinced that covid will change society and behaviour for good but it will probably take a couple of million deaths before the last dunderheads have understood and take it serious
I’m not sure that even then most people would care in their heart of hearts. My hospital catchment is about 80-140K depending on how you calculate it. There are a few hundred beds serving this population (again, depending on how you count them). We would be reduced to gibbering wrecks if we had to cope with e.g. 2000 deaths over a few weeks – which is a hopefully unrealistically high figure – but most people in the area would still not be close to anyone who had died. If there were several times that number of people who had long-term disability e.g. strokes or lung disease – then I think people would start to take note. But I still feel that even the most severe of scenarios might be barely noticeable to many in the wider community.
I believe the anthropologists say that most people can only name a dozen people for whom they would truly grieve if they died.
Malibuflyer wrote:
everyone seems always to be talking about that one perfectly healthy 30 year old that got killed
I have a few nervous friends and whenever I talk about risk, by which I mean real numbers by age/health/total population etc, this is always the response I get too.
Malibuflyer wrote:
At some point in time all people who could die from Covid will have died.
This is an interesting idea, it is interesting to consider whether that could be what happens eventually, but how fast will it happen? The lockdown and “shielding” that has been happening at least in the UK, will will possibly change whether this occurs at all.
Regards, SD..
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Or as a friend with more religious affiliation mentioned, one of the riders of the Apokalypse happens to spread sickness. The next one would be war. Both are very much in the scope of possibility, so maybe the Mormons are right after all.
Given that the “spanish flu” was much worse than Covid-19 and at the same time as WW1, I doubt it.
At some point in time all people who could die from Covid will have died.
That would take years. It will take years even if there were no measures at all – because those at higher risk, and who have the option and are smart enough, will just “go underground” so if they do catch it it will happen much later.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The only way the lockdowns would have helped was if they were kept in place until the new infection rate was ZERO for a month.
I know it was discussed a long time ago but it’s worth remembering that full lockdowns were never put in place. Farmers, key workers, etc have been able to move around and supermarkets have been open. So without a total lockdown (which inevitably would kill a lot of people who aren’t prepared or able to manage) I can’t see how one could expect it to reduce things to zero. Also you’re relying on a 100% compliant populous, even authoritarian China couldn’t manage that.
This discussion feels increasingly like everything has already been said, but not by everyone. Or that some statements are repeated over and over and over.
Yes, to some extent, but at least EuroGA provides a place where we can discuss something which is affecting all of us, in a civilised manner and without getting personally attacked, beaten up, etc – something you cannot do on any other forum I know of, and especially not on any other aviation forum.
Peter wrote:
Yes, to some extent, but at least EuroGA provides a place where we can discuss something which is affecting all of us, in a civilised manner and without getting personally attacked, beaten up, etc – something you cannot do on any other forum I know of, and especially not on any other aviation forum.
Indeed, I’m very glad for this possibility. EuroGA is the only place on the Internet where I discuss Covid-19 with an international and non-medical audience, and it has always been an interesting and mature discussion.
