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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

AF wrote:

Their results reveal that the panic and mayhem wasn’t warranted.
The forecasts and naysayers all said Sweden was going to suffer a horrible scourge , but it looks like their team got it right.

Wait and see.

Austria was doing well and is now back to over 1000 cases a day. Switzerland was down to 20 in June and is now up to 500 a day. Not to talk of France or Spain, where infections skyrocket.

The 2nd wave is in full swing now, figures are exponential again in many places. Unless they shut those places off from the rest of the world, we will be a lot worse off than in the beginning. But then again, this is totally expected looking at the historical precedence of the Spanish Flu and the Russian corona virus in the 1890ties.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

it is now 26 days since China has seen a single domestic case. I dont know what to make of it?

hmng’s post leads to this article, which could explain why.

Dr. Craig points out that UK hospital data is consistent with the hypothesis that almost all of our recent and current “cases” are false positives.

Glenswinton, SW Scotland, United Kingdom

That’s really interesting but unsurprising – because the ratio of the positive tests and the hospital loading (or deaths) doesn’t make any sense. It is no good claiming that it is spreading mostly among young people (who “don’t care about catching it”) because most of them still live at home and should be infecting older people.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

As a GA fan I agree with these lines

Imagine the amount of infection risk reduction when departing/arriving via some sleepy GA grass airfield instead of virus infested major airports.
The perfect time to set up a fractional ownership operation. PM me if you want to buy a plane ;)

Last Edited by Snoopy at 13 Sep 22:08
always learning
LO__, Austria

Peter wrote:

I think all Germans have, or will have, dropped out of the fly-in, due to the German Govt classification of the relevant region meaning that if anyone returning quarantines,

Currently the Border areas of France are not under any restrictions for Germany and Switzerland for obvious reasons (Annecy).
Specific regions of France entering Switzerland/Germany require quarantine, but Germany will accept a negative test instead of quarantine (Switzerland doesnt).

Regards, SD..

@WFaviation may have a point, the C337 mixmaster may come in for a renaissance, and not just as a practical IFR warbird(o-2).

https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/sign-up-now-for-your-own-twin-engined-hybrid-electric-plane-2859328/

It would be ideal under the scenario suggested by @snoopy

Oxford (EGTK), United Kingdom

Snoopy – I would love to think this is a valid course, but I fear not, or at least not yet. It is still early days (even though it now seems a long time since we have had to deal with COVID) with respect to the progression of COVID and its ultimate impact on society. Infrastructure takes far longer to change, as does tearing apart all the vested interests and investment in current infrastructure, so I dont see any of this coming to pass any time soon. If COVID is unresolved, or other pandemics became common, then I think we would see a fundamental rethink, but it is not that time yet.

Jacko wrote:

hmng’s post leads to this article, which could explain why.

Dr. Craig points out that UK hospital data is consistent with the hypothesis that almost all of our recent and current “cases” are false positives.

That link was hosted by “lockdownsceptics” so I did wonder if the truth might have been “filtered”. I don’t think it has.

A quick google showed, eg: here
hosted by gov.uk suggesting a false positive rate beyween 0.8 – 4.0 % (median 2.3%).

and

this preprint
from Medrxiv
which has some useful graphs and the quote:

Quote
The reliability of positive results falls to near zero when test positivity approaches the FPR.
However, even with positivities up to around four times the FPR, over 20% of positive results
are likely to be false positives. Unless other respiratory diseases are pervasive in a test
population, most of these false positive individuals would likely be asymptomatic, which could at
least partially explain the reports of large numbers of asymptomatic carriers of SARS-CoV-2.
Positive PCR results in individuals that don’t develop symptoms should generally be considered
doubtful unless confirmed by a second positive test.

Since only 5% of the UK population is supposed to have had Covid-19 ever, it’s likely less than 0.8% of the population are currently infectious, and false positives could easily make up more than half of the “new cases”, depending on the profile of those being tested..

Apologies for the multiple edits, I hit “Submit” before I was ready!

[ links cleaned up :) ]

Last Edited by DavidS at 14 Sep 10:47
White Waltham EGLM, United Kingdom

Local copies of above PDFs:
S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives_pdf
2020_04_26_20080911v3_full_pdf

This is really interesting stuff but can we really believe that this

is all (or most) false positives? As the above papers say, this is key “policymaking input” stuff.

AFAIK the UK is not testing more people recently; they are still testing only those reporting symptoms.

And it is much bigger for say France

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

It depends on the profile of those being tested, and I’m not sure anybody knows that, nor how it is changing over time.

For example since schools started again, any teacher whose kid gets a cough will be off school until they get tested. So “symptomatics only” doesn’t mean all the test subjects are symptomatic. Maybe there is an increase in these “symptoms by proxy”?

PS thanks for cleaning up the links!

White Waltham EGLM, United Kingdom
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