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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion

Malibuflyer wrote:

if and only if I lived in the country you are obviously living in, where some kind of “social flying service” pays for every upgrade of the plane you want

That would be nice It’s purely a question of cost then. Then I could ask what price tag do you put on your life? Besides, if I remember correctly, chutes, either BRS or personal is mandatory in Germany for UL and gliders. In Norway it is mandatory for gliders, optional for UL, €€€ for certified but anyone is free to use a personal chute.

My point was simply that this is not a situation where if I do this, then I also must do that due to some quasi logical inference. It doesn’t work like that.

ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway
Its interesting to see that the duration of the hospitalisation in Estonia is more than 2x lower now than it was in spring (lower graph)

EETU, Estonia

The general suggestion in the UK seems to be that the elderly will be vaccinated first. Indeed this has been published, which is quite simplistic but also has a pretty narrow frame of reference.

I wonder if a better strategy would be to vaccinate the 18-60 population first. Firstly these are the people who move around and transmit it, and secondly as a group they can be much more rapidly vaccinated (i.e. they can be told to report to some vaccination centre and hang around all day for their jab, which you cannot do with the elderly – they will take much more time and resource on a per-jab basis). Perhaps via this route you might more quickly reach the (presumably) critical point of X% of the population vaccinated, where X is probably some number between 50 and 75.

Vaccinating the elderly first reminds me of RAF bombers returning from operations over Germany and the RAF concluding that they needed more armour in the areas where they had damage, rather than the areas where they didn’t have damage. The obvious answer, but perhaps not the right one?

Last Edited by Graham at 24 Nov 09:44
EGLM & EGTN

T28 wrote:

If you believe data, it isn’t. If you believe the yellow press, the end is near.

The diagrams show daily hospitalizations, not the number of persons in hospital for Covid-19 on each day. So the situation in the hospitals may continue to get worse even if the number of hospitalizations go down.

ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

I wonder if a better strategy would be to vaccinate the 18-60 population first.

One argument put forward is that the care homes are the low hanging fruit because you know where they are, you turn up with a tub of the stuff and do the whole building. One tends to get whole streets of them so you then go next door, and so on…

A govt will be encouraged to do this not just because of the infection spread risk but because the care home epidemic was such a PR disaster for it which they want to avoid repeating, but which can’t be practically avoided (due to the staff that tend to work in care homes, having multiple low level jobs around the town, multiple age occupancy households etc). Cynics will (and do) argue that the average life left in a care home is 2.5 years…

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

@mooney_driver wrote

There is NO vaccine for SARS and MERS, none for AIDS and only a very limited effectiveness even for the flu.
Vaccines are a pipe dream which won’t happen and if so, then with a limited duration. Possibly we will be able to get Covid down to Summer levels, but to go back to pre-covid lives, not in our lifetime imho. Apart, many will no longer be around by that time, at the rate Covid is taking over now, we will loose quite a few people this winter and have millions of handicapped survivors to take care of in the future.
Home office, cubicles, screens, masks, essential travel only if even that, yes, that is what I expect for at least the next decade. The best scenario we can hope for is the one we had in summer. Covid is here and it will stay.

Can we get a „remind me“ bot?

Now: „Help, Corona, I don’t want to die“

Remind me in one year (24NOV2020)
„Economy, economy, economy!“

In 5 years:
Apple bought Switzerland for asset protection reasons.
Austria was too cheap.

Just guessing ;)

Personally I’d appreciate a mega-boom in air travel. Thank you in advance, Universe!

Last Edited by Snoopy at 24 Nov 09:26
Freelance IRI / CB-IR Instructor
LOWG | Worldwide

The diagrams show daily hospitalizations, not the number of persons in hospital for Covid-19 on each day. So the situation in the hospitals may continue to get worse even if the number of hospitalizations go down

There is a lag between infections and bed occupancy rate, but people don’t stay hospitalised forever. So if infections peak, hospitalisations will also peak. Considering the time-lag between infection and hospitalisation, you can assume that if beds have not run out now two weeks after infection peak, they will not run out in the near future assuming infection rate evolution remains constant.

Last Edited by T28 at 24 Nov 09:40
T28
Switzerland

Peter wrote:

A govt will be encouraged to do this not just because of the infection spread risk but because the care home epidemic was such a PR disaster for it which they want to avoid repeating, but which can’t be practically avoided (due to the staff that tend to work in care homes, having multiple low level jobs around the town, multiple age occupancy households etc). Cynics will (and do) argue that the average life left in a care home is 2.5 years…

Exactly, that’s my concern. That the government will go for the vaccination strategy with the best PR rather than the most effective one, and that by doing this they will add months to the bill, as it were. Vaccinate the economically-active first and you can have the economy starting to recover and the drain on the public purse reduced much sooner.

EGLM & EGTN

The counter argument to that is: the young for sure do spread it to the old, but it is not yet known if any of the vaccines prevent the vaccinated person spreading it.

It’s like the numbers from Spain suggesting that dogs spread it pretty effectively to their owners, but they don’t get ill themselves.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

but it is not yet known if any of the vaccines prevent the vaccinated person spreading it.

One would hope/expect that it does.

If it doesn’t, the ‘no risk is acceptable’ brigade will determine that we can’t haul ourselves out of this economic mess until 100% of the population is vaccinated.

If a vaccine does prevent spreading, even a relatively small proportion (< half) of the population being vaccinated would have an enormous effect on the spread of the virus. The more carefully you selected that proportion, the smaller it would need to be in order to see that effect.

EGLM & EGTN
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