but it is not yet known if any of the vaccines prevent the vaccinated person spreading it.
Spreading is linked to the quantity of shed virus-laden particles. If the virus is prevented by the vaccine from replicating in the body, shedding will diminish drastically.
There is some evidence that the AstraZeneca vaccine reduces asymptomatic spread.
A particular concern regarding nursing home residents is that they come to hospital far more often than other people, so if one of your primary objectives is to keep hospitals running smoothly then there could be an argument for vaccinating them early on this basis.
kwlf wrote:
A particular concern regarding nursing home residents is that they come to hospital far more often than other people, so if one of your primary objectives is to keep hospitals running smoothly then there could be an argument for vaccinating them early on this basis.
But they come to hospital a lot anyway, not just with Covid. There is also a possible counter argument that once they’re no longer afraid of Covid they’ll be keener to leave their bedroom and go to hospital for something else…
The cold-hearted logician in me says keep the elderly and vulnerable shielding themselves while you vaccinate everyone else. Assuming the vaccines do significantly reduce the spread, R very quickly tends towards zero and pretty soon there is nothing for the elderly and vulnerable to shield from.
If you go the way the UK Government seems to be planning, the spread (and thus the cost) will remain considerable right up until the time you make serious inroads into the very last of the priority groups, i.e. those under 50.
That’s my point. Whether or not they are admitted for COVID, keeping patients who have or may have COVID away from those who don’t is logistically difficult and complicates running a hospital hugely.
Google suggests there are about 400k care home residents (i.e. 0.6%) so we are not talking huge numbers. Hospitals and care homes are also hubs for the spread of COVID back to the community.
ivark wrote:
in Estonia is more than 2x lower now than it was in spring (lower graph)
As my Estonian is not existent yet: I just guess (by looking at the peak end of July) these numbers are the average for the patients currently in hospital.
In that case the number is not surprising as even in Estonia the hospitalization rates are still rising (and if you have one patient who is in hospital for 20 days already and then another one is admitted today, from yesterday to tomorrow this average number drops from 20 to 10 days).
Or to put it differently: The fact that the numbers are currently that low is the alarming signal, that still lot’s of new patients (current length of stay is 0) are admitted every day and thus driving down the average.
The number will raise by almost one day per day as soon as no new patients are coming in
Talk today in the news that you will have to be vaccinated to be able to travel. I suspect that the current vaccination strategy of old and vulnerable might have to change if so…
skydriller wrote:
Talk today in the news that you will have to be vaccinated to be able to travel.
That would be a reasonable regulation.
I would, however, expect that at least EU and some other “civilized” countries still keep the travel ban for some time after the vaccine is available to avoid riots in front of pharmacies on who gets the vaccine first.
That’s also the reason why I don’t believe that there will be significant changes on lockdown based on vaccination: It’s hard enough to tell people that they are late in the line for immunization. But telling them in addition that due to this fact they are still in lockdown, while vaccinated people are free to party would be too much for any government that wants to be reelected.
Therefore I’d expect that even with the vaccination significant restrictions still apply for all as long as anyone who wants to get a shot had the opportunity to get one.
Malibuflyer wrote:
That would be a reasonable regulation.
Very poorly though out IMHO and totally unnecessary, a simple way to make some something very emotive for no real benefit. Virtual signalling at it finest 
The press of course can’t help themselves, since that is job to stir the pot. FWIW I have had all vaccines that I have been offered, and that includes those I have responsibility for.
Ted wrote:
Very poorly though out IMHO and totally unnecessary, a simple way to make some something very emotive for no real benefit.
It is actually quite common for some diseases that you are only allowed to travel from areas where it is endemic to other parts of the world if you are vaccinated. Yellow fever might be the best known example. I’ve actually never heard of someone being emotional about a yellow fever vaccination.
Malibuflyer wrote:
It is actually quite common for some diseases that you are only allowed to travel from areas where it is endemic to other parts of the world if you are vaccinated. Yellow fever might be the best known example. I’ve actually never heard of someone being emotional about a yellow fever vaccination.
Except that is not what is being proposed So it hardly matters if it is quite common as you suggest…
