I found this WSJ article on the forthcoming Novavax vaccine interesting. It apparently uses older technology which does not utilize messenger RNA, does not require cold refrigeration, and it works equally well. Obviously if realized that combination of qualities could make some people less nervous about the vaccine (rationally or not, it doesn’t matter) and would make it easier to distribute to less developed areas of the world.
Technology and business generally proceeds over time towards easier to make, more practical, cheaper, more marketable to more people. It’s certainly my view of progress in aircraft development and the implication of the article is that perhaps this might be closer to the Vans RV of coronavirus vaccines 
MedEwok wrote:
In Germany the government announced very early on that there will be no compulsory vaccinations
Yes, they announced that – as they announced there will be no compulsory wearing of masks in public at a time where the supply of masks was short. I’m quite optimistic that as soon as there is enough vaccine for everyone we will get som kind of de facto compulsory vaccination in Germany – we have the precedence of measels vaccination and there is actually little reason in my opinion why we should not follow the same route with Covid.
MedEwok wrote:
However, it also became quite clear that it would be unconstitutional for the government to prevent private companies from only dealing with vaccinated clients if they want to.
That is actually a quite tricky question. In theory and on high level of abstraction it is exactly as you say: Treating someone without vaccination differently from someone with is not considered as discrimination in a legal sense (as the list of reasons for unlawful discrimination in our constitution is final).
The far more difficult question is, however, which means the shop owner would have to enforce such a policy. What would be the mechanism to penalize a customer who enters such a shop w/o vaccination if there is no law that forces a fine?
dublinpilot wrote:
When we open up the country, and remove lockdowns, the R never really went above 2.If 70% of the population are immune, then only 30% are viable hosts. So the R of 2 drops to 0.6. You might have infected 2 people in a “naïve” population but because 70% of those are immune, you end up on average only infecting 0.6 people. At least that’s how I see it going.
I would argue that this model is oversimplified for many reasons (even beyond the fact that “R” is a parameter in an exponential model of disease spread so that it is only really meaningful in cases R>>1), e.g.:
- Most countries favor “high risk” population in vaccinations with “high risk” being defined as people who suffer most from disease, not people who have the highest risk of getting infected. The unvaccinated part of the population is therefore directionally more mobile, more interactive and thus has more contacts. So x% of vaccinated people will reduce the number of infections by less than x%
- It is highly likely that in the false safety of 70% vaccinated population the remaining 30% will be even less compliant with any measures and thus increase R_0
It will not take long (I’d assume 2 more months until we get the first preprints) to get real epidemiological data on this from Israel – will be very interesting…
Malibuflyer wrote:
Yes, they announced that – as they announced there will be no compulsory wearing of masks in public at a time where the supply of masks was short
It will go the same direction with these vaccinations cards as with masks. Both completely useless, but the public will eventually demand it, backed up by politicians. The reason will be the usual mantra, the public has a right to feel safe.
The AZ one also uses old tech.
Both completely useless
Masks completely useless? That’s quite a statement.
LeSving wrote:
It will go the same direction with these vaccinations cards as with masks. Both completely useless, but the public will eventually demand it, backed up by politicians. The reason will be the usual mantra, the public has a right to feel safe.
Vaccination cards have been around forever, I really don’t know what the hubbub is about. If you vaccinate yourself against anything, this needs to be documented, if not for any other reason than for yourself to know when the next one is up.
As for masks being useless, that is quite disproven I think. The lies in the beginning, when there were no masks available, was quite instrumental in the original spread. Had people worn masks, even “non official” ones, from February 2020 on, I think the first wave would have been much less pronounced.
It has been clear for a while that the 2nd wave in September was primarily caused by people not obeying the masking and hygiene rules. Lots of outbreaks were caused by corona protestors and other idiots who thought it is not for them, by private parties where people forgot all the precautions and so on.
Personally I hope that in the long term, masks will become something which people get used to and moreover will use whenever they feel ill to protect others, like in Asia. Probably this won’t work out of self discipline but needs to be mandated some way, either by law or by social pressure. But as we have seen this winter, there is quite some effect on this also in terms of flu prevention. Also hand hygiene and a healthy amount of social distancing as a general new habit won’t hurt… and possibly eradicate some other diseases in the process.
The problem is that these vacc cards are trivial to forge.
In the old days few or nobody would bother because it wasn’t worth anything, but this time round such a certificate would be worth thousands to many people.
Also in the old days people didn’t have colour printers for €50. Forging this stuff needed a friend who runs a print shop and runs a few blanks off on a litho. That would have cost 100+ which was real money back then.
Peter wrote:
The problem is that these vacc cards are trivial to forge.
EASA pilot licenses are even easier to forge – still only few people would argue that licensing is completely useless.
True, but pilots are sh*it scared of their national CAA. Pilots spend their entire flying career living in fear of the CAA, the AME, the CAMO, you name it The pilot population is self selected for extremely law-obiding, yellow jacket wearing, obscessive personalities (which is one reason so few women are in it)
Here we are talking about Joe Public who wants to hit the clubs on Mykonos, Kavos, Slaganas He can’t get vaccinated until 2023. And the only thing stopping him is photoshop and a printer.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Vaccination cards have been around forever
Yes, I know. I have one myself and have used it several times to get into countries in Africa. This does not mean that a corona vaccination card will have any use, or the same use. Corona is likely to be like flu, you need a new vaccine each season, there is no card for flu vaccine, since a flu vaccine is regarded as a personal protection, not a protection against a pandemic. Herd immunity will eventually and gradually kick in, through vaccines and through people already having had Covid, same as flu. But we will see new outbreaks by mutated strands which no existing vaccine will help against, same as flu.
The concept of a corona vaccination card is dubious IMO, but I think the public will demand it to “feel safe”. Airlines are likely to demand it for instance, because such a card will make more people fly. It’s the same as “security” on airports. No one likes it, and the actual effect is as good as zero, but it “makes me feel safe”.
Peter wrote:
Masks completely useless? That’s quite a statement.
Not if you look at the science and mathematics/statistics behind it. It may have some minimal effect on the pandemic when the intensity of the virus is very high. When the intensity starts to lower, as it will due to herd immunity/vaccines, the effect will be zero (not even detectable). If people want to wear mask for their own “protection”, well, just do so. But masks as means of preventing/stopping further pandemic is simply nonsense.
I hope that the world will eventually come to it’s senses. If people want to take vaccines, do it. If people want to wear mask, do it. I mean, this has to be regarded as personal choices for personal protection, we cannot completely loose our freedom over this for all eternity. I’m afraid that is exactly what is going to happen though, but I still have hope
