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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion

Mark Handley (UCL) COVID 19 Worldwide Growth Rates http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

JHU CSSE datasets https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Le statistiche del coronavirus Covid-19 in tempo reale in Italia https://statistichecoronavirus.it/coronavirus-italia/

London

At this point it seems to me the only relevant information is deaths. The virus is spreading at whatever pace it has depending on the measures taken to prevent the spreading. The number of deaths is proportional to these measures and also to the health care of each individual. From now, and the next couple of weeks will tell if we all will go “Italian” or if we will go “Korean/Japanese”. Probably something in between IMO.

ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway

@Silvaire,

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/scientific_briefing_2x.png

And for those who still compare flu with Covid 19 – given that it is clearly more fatal thani fluenza, what meakes you believe that this will not be much worse than a bad flu season unless measures are taken?

Biggin Hill

Cobalt wrote:

And for those who still compare flu with Covid 19 – given that it is clearly more fatal thani fluenza, what meakes you believe that this will not be much worse than a bad flu season unless measures are taken?

We really can’t tell how fatal it is as we don’t know how many people have been infected. The fatalities as proportion of reported cases vary between countries by more than a factor 10.

ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

Airborne_Again wrote:

We really can’t tell how fatal it is as we don’t know how many people have been infected.

Surely we can get an indication by looking at the approximate death rates (and looking forward at exponential growth) . I think the US figures for the flu season worked out at something like 4 deaths per hour. Italy is looking at over 20, probably higher now.

Whilst the flu does kill a lot it doesn’t overwhelm the healthcare systems in the way that we are seeing presently.

We can also vaccinate against flu, which prevents it from ripping through the population in a month.

Andreas IOM

I’m wondering if we GA pilots can somehow help out.
Like “the airbus from China with 10m masks just landed in Zürich, if only we had a fast way to get 10’000 of them to Lausanne”. Or that ventilator just fresh off the production line in Germany that is desperately needed in Bergamo and every minute counts…

My assumption here is that with a GA plane you can do point-to-point missions whereas bigger (military) planes have to do hub-and-spoke, load/unload huge quantities etc. which slows down the process considerably.

I would be willing to do missions like that free of charge if it is helpful (IR PPL, SR22 based in LSZH).

Maybe we haven’t reached that point of desperation yet, but maybe there is already some kind of e-mail address or contact form where I can let the (Swiss) officials know that I am happy to help out and what I can/cannot do, and once they need me they could contact me?

In the US, there seems a big culture about Angel Flights, Pilots N Paws etc., even during normal times, so the idea doesn’t seem to be so far fetched.

Switzerland

obviously it is more deadly than influenza – how blind can one be? The only question is by how much. Northern Italian hospitals are not normally overwhelmed by influenza patients, even in a bad year!

There are only three things that will make a difference on the outcome and speed of resolution

  1. the number of infected is MUCH lower than reported, because there are many undiagnosed mild cases
  2. we develop a very quick and reliable (as in, not too many false negatives) test that almost everyone can take daily, so we isolate the ill, not everybody
  3. a vaccine

Other than that, we are looking at a looooooong “lock-down”, somewhere in the range of China/Italy/France.

While (1) is certain (given that we only test those showing symptoms), the question is how much, but I wouldn’t plan for it.
(2) Is the one thing that can conceivably be done in weeks/months
(3) will take longer.

My hope is on (2).

Biggin Hill

Italy is looking at over 20, probably higher now.

Over 30, with most deaths in just part of the country (i.e a much smaller population than the USA).

HBadger wrote:

I would be willing to do missions like that free of charge if it is helpful (IR PPL, SR22 based in LSZH).

I sent a similar proposal to the french ministry of defense “call for projects” last Friday. I haven’t heard back but if they reply, I’ll let you know. It works out in the US for hurricane response but in this particular situation we’re facing, the roads are still intact so I’m not sure if GA really has an edge on ground transportation.

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