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Corona / Covid-19 Virus - General Discussion (politics go to the Off Topic / Politics thread)

Off_Field wrote:

Surely we can get an indication by looking at the approximate death rates (and looking forward at exponential growth) . I

That’s what I don’t think we can, unless we know the total number of cases, which we don’t.

E.g. the death rate as a proportion of known cases is now 9% in Italy, 5% in Spain and the UK compared to 1% in Sweden while all four countries got their first known cases essentially simultaneously (on January 31 or February 1). For Italy the reason may be an overloaded health care system, but for the other three countries I can’t see any reason other than differing number of unknown cases.

(Note: I’m not implying that Sweden is “better” — other countries also have as low or lower death rates.)

Last Edited by Airborne_Again at 22 Mar 10:29
ESKC (Uppsala/Sundbro), Sweden

The Robert Koch Institute in Germany reports that yesterday there were fewer new cases than the day before for the first time.

Either we’re starting to “flatten the curve” due to social distancing or it’s due to new testing guidelines where many “light” cases are just isolated at home without a test.

Last Edited by MedEwok at 22 Mar 10:40
Low-hours pilot
EDVM Hildesheim, Germany

I can’t see any reason other than differing number of unknown cases.

Perhaps there are significant lifestyle factors e.g. heavy smoking is normal in the southern parts of Europe. Also Italy has Europe’s oldest population, apparently.

I know most smokers don’t think the damage is great but you can google for what lungs of a smoker look like inside and then the above explanation looks more than plausible.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

“There are only three things that will make a difference on the outcome and speed of resolution”

I think (2) cheap and wide mass testing should allow people to self-isolate without having symptomes and killing the normal life but it does not help much unless you have (4) the discovery of an effective medical treatment, at the moment we have nothing but this may come in the next months

Testing (2) and Treatment (4) go in tandem as efficacy of treatment is better with an early testing, there is a case of Flu treatments effectively working for treating early COVID19 patients but fails on those on later stage

Last Edited by Ibra at 22 Mar 11:28
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

“wide mass testing should allow people to self-isolate without having symptomes”

Is it really necessary for the increasing population of recovered persons to continue in isolation?

London, United Kingdom

Treatment (other than treating symptoms) is unlikely, a lot less likely than vaccination.

The one thing that most effectively treats viral diseases is the human immune system; vaccination activates it.

Of course it is a possibility to develop a treatment that actually neutralises the virus, but the track record of antiviral drugs – few and far in between – compared to vaccines where we have the capability to develop new vaccines for mutating diseases comparatively quickly makes me believe that vaccination is more likely.

Biggin Hill

Peter wrote:

Also Italy has Europe’s oldest population, apparently.

I’ve read the theory that what did it in Italy is the fact that lots of young people live with their parents and grandparents under one roof. Hence the older people got infected massively.

Social distancing needs to be strictly enforced, if necessary with police or military force, if we do not want to see a total escalation. It is totally crazy that Europe has still not gotten the message and keeps non-essential businesses open, lets people out on the streets and does not enforce curfew with if need be martial law and consequences for each and every threspasser. If it continues like that, we shall see Europe collapse totally. And that is what I fully expect at this stage. Society and our so called leaders have proven totally inadequate for the task. I do hope that they will be brought to justice once this is halfways over, but I am not confident to see that happen.

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

Qalupalik wrote:

Is it really necessary for the increasing population of recovered persons to continue in isolation?

No, as soon as we are certain they don’t spread anymore they could go their merry way; assuming they cannot be infected again. If they can be reinfected by the same strain, it would be dire because that would mean vaccination will be ineffective.

But if we could isolate only those who have the virus before or during the period when they spread it, instead of everyone, we would probably have a higher rate of compliance AND lower economic impact.

Biggin Hill

Off_Field wrote:

The seasonal flu figures I think work out to roughly 4 deaths /hr . Italy I think is at about 26 d/hr at the moment

Healthcare system in Lombardy, italian richest region, is totally collapsed . A lot of people are not receiving proper medical attention and this explain the deaths figures. I don’t know if we mismanaged something or were just unlucky .
In Veneto where i live and in the other regions the system is still coping with the disease , but if the lock down doesn’t work will be soon in the same situation as Lombardy .

Pegaso airstrip, Italy

Smoking is out of fashion from at least 20 years in Italy and very few people smoke nowadays, mostly teenager I’d say .
A big difference with north europe countries maybe just maybe is that there are many more interactions between people of different age. Our family ties are closer. You don’t live in the same house with your parents but you see them almost everyday , use them for babysitting and so on .

Last Edited by ormazad at 22 Mar 12:13
Pegaso airstrip, Italy
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