Numbers of recovered people are not communicated well… or don’t they simply exist? It is one thing to see the figures skyrocket but in the end, those who are known to have recovered would lower the number of actual cases at present time?
I think the real challenge will be the balance between the medical need to prevent contagion and the economy. In practice, more than 4-6 weeks of staying at home will be next to impossible to maintain from an economic perspective. I think the governments will hope to flatten the curve sufficiently in that period to help and will then have to loosen things up. The economic damage could be more dangerous than the virus (including to life).
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Numbers of recovered people are not communicated well… or don’t they simply exist? It is one thing to see the figures skyrocket but in the end, those who are known to have recovered would lower the number of actual cases at present time?
In Germany those numbers are not really counted. Nobody has time for that. I don’t know where the John Hopkins University gets the data from, for No. of “recovered patients” in Germany, but I would not base any decision on that data…
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Numbers of recovered people are not communicated well… or don’t they simply exist? It is one thing to see the figures skyrocket but in the end, those who are known to have recovered would lower the number of actual cases at present time?
I know that in Sweden those figures are not reported – from what I’ve read the reason is that such reporting generally is uncertain so there is no point.
Same in Switzerland, the Federal Council said Friday during the press conference that they don’t know where other countries get their number of “recoveries” from, but for Switzerland these figures don’t exist or are not reliable.
Mark Handley (UCL) COVID 19 Worldwide Growth Rates http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/
So if Switzerland is 4 days behind Italy, where are we hiding all the dead? Something is starting to smell fishy in all these numbers to me.
Cobalt wrote:
Treatment (other than treating symptoms) is unlikely, a lot less likely than vaccination.
Yes, it is down to the immune system but if people spend 4 days under extensive care instead of 30 days that would make a huge difference to healthcare capacity
On tests apparently, British Association of Otorhinolaryngology has advised those with unexpected loss of smell or taste to self-isolate
This is highly relevant to young -20yo population which does carry the virus without showing main symptoms like cough/fever
Qalupalik wrote:
Is it really necessary for the increasing population of recovered persons to continue in isolation?
Infection of recovered population is not even captured in epidemic models, the assumption is that you will remember it but that memory may fade in the next wave in 3 years, I am sure COVID19 is not an exception so but there is already two versions out there
There are media reports of double dose exposures or positive/negative/positive tests but these are far from scientific studies, but at this early stage the risk from double infections is more 4rd order noise…
Rwy20 wrote:
Something is starting to smell fishy in all these numbers to me
I think it all can be explained by social distancing. If given the chance, the virus will spread like wild fire. Include some “firewalls”, if ever so fragile, this will greatly slow down the speed. It probably does not take much to slow it down from exponential to linear growth, but the difference on the end result is, well, exponential.
I think it all can be explained by social distancing.
No.
The number of infected is rising like in Italy, social distancing doesn’t have an influence (yet).
Rwy20 wrote:
No
OK, what kind of fish then?
By training I suppose I am a scientist.
On here we see one person saying smoking is still very prevalent in Italy, another says it is not (and I am NOT slating either person). The point I am making is that at the moment it seems so difficult to come by the facts and the data. Of course an internet forum is probably not the best place to look (although there are some gems also to be found), but it doenst seem a lot different in the scientific community (or what I see of it). It seems to me there is a lot of scrabling around for the data, and/or a lot of “we simply dont know”. As I scientist this makes me feel very uncomfortable. At this stage in the game I also find it slightly surprising. I would expect there to be more data, and I have a feeling there is, but perhaps it isnt yet ready for public consumption. As pilots we know only too well, data is key, it is riduculous making judgements without. You will read “if you have ssen one pandemic, you have seen one pandemic”. Yep, it seems to me they are all different, and it makes sense they would be, so gathering the data as it progressed must be an absolute priority.
I am not a fan of conspiracy theories, but equally I understand and respect world leaders are also managing populations, with all their foibles and paranoia, and, of course genuine fears. Keeping control of the news and of the mass psyche is equally important.
Which of these factos are ruling the roost, I havent yet made my mind up.
JasonC – as to your point, I have no doubt, but I dont think the polticians can yet acknowledge that, or indeed have much idea if they can contain the cost to manageable proportions. We live in an age (and I dont make any judgement) where we will throw anything at a situation such as this I suspect, and will worry about the outcome after the event. Mind you, I have no doubt that is already being considered, and I feel the amounts currently are mangeable. If and when a few of the major airlines risk collapse, and if the financial markets were to stop functioning, that would be a very different matter, but thank goodness, it seems to me even in a worst case scenario, they have enough capacity to continue to function (in other words there is enough redunancy built in if a lot of people get sick) and assuming they continue to recover at the rates we are seeing, the work force will continue to function, and will in time function even better.
As a world, and at the moment, I would like to think we have narrowly dodged the bullet, but it does highlight that if the mortality rate where a great deal different, that would not have been true.
When it is all over, I get the sense that there is mounting concern as to whether or not the Chinese did enough. I dont have the information to judge – so I am not even going to express a view, and nor is now the time. However, the questions will have to be asked, because if they did not, then what has happened doesnt matter, but for sure it can never be allowed to happen again, and whatever it takes will need to be enforced with posturing. The world must accept that anything like this is as dangerous as nuclear weapons in the wrong hands, its matters no who or what the regime is, but the moment there is rapid spread of disease the WHO must in future be notified immediately and have the right, and ultimately immediate sanctions, to flood the country / area with independent inspectors free to go about their business. If that right takes the world order to have agreed on immedaite and automatic sanctions, and closing that countries borders from outside, then so be it until they capitulate. Qucik reactions and containment are the key and no time can be lost in the future for any reason, nor can the scientific data be restricted, scensored or left ungathered for any reason. (not saying it has).
