hmng wrote:
For Italy, there is this news item https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml
Maybe is my poor english but my understanding of “overwhemed” is a bit different .
If you googled “terapie intensive al collasso” ( intensive care collapsed) you must also understand the difference between a newspaper criticizing healthcare’s budget cuts (that there have been , as in many countries I think ) and an ACTUAL healthcare system collapse , that happen 10 days ago in Lombardy an now in Madrid too .
Ibra wrote:
I think Germany people & govt are clearly scared to death with 0.5% fatality rate on 70% population infection base, weeks ago,
Now they are scared? If they had gotten their act together, they would not have needed to be. Now it’s too late. Far too late. And once judgement will be spoken over their actions, I hope they will wish never to have been born. If they don’t get it themselfs. Quite a few are in quarantaine, that is probably when it hit home, hey I can die of this….
At least China is now trying to help while European countries deny each other goods which unfortunately have to be transported over their territory. In Swiss hospitals people will get infected and die because Germany is blocking medical goods in transfer from harbours to our country in order to steal it if they need it themselfs. If this continues, countries like ours with no acces to sea ports will have to get their medical supplies via air lift, yep, right, like Berlin when the Soviets shut down the roads. That is Europe for you. And the EU reprimanded them but to no effect. Shows well where that is going too.
This thing is going to change the face of the world more profoundly than many things which have happened in the last century. Forget open borders for a start. Free movement of people brought us this mess. And China has to understand once and for all that they are responsible for everything they export, not only fake Ipads. They were the only ones who could stop it and did not, instead killing the messenger. For that, they need to be made responsible to the fullest extent.
Some more info of a DIY makeshift sterilizer with petri dish tests of effectiveness: https://www.cupofinsanity.com/blog/2017/06/20/my-diy-uvc-light-sterilizer/
It took him way too long to suss out that he needs the proper (i.e. dangerous) UVC 
Also no good testing a petri dish because in this scenario the virus will be on a surface, not on the bottom of a jar.
Also one needs the ozone-making UVC tubes. I am not yet sure what the difference is. It could be a slightly different wavelength, or just a different type of quartz. As the swimming pool business discovered decades ago, ozone is key for sterilisation because it gets everywhere (in a confined space) whereas UV just gets where, ahem, light gets. I have some 36W UVC+ozone lamps coming from a contact in China. 36W is a massive UVC lamp.
Angela Merkel (PhD in quantum chemistry)
I did a google and you are right… doubly impressive from the DDR where they had proper education.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Forget open borders for a start. Free movement of people brought us this mess.
The nationalist right wing have always said that free movement of people is bad. That’s based in ideology and not in fact.
There is an article in the Guardian about the Oxford paper – there is also a link to it. It’s not an analysis to show how many people have been exposed. It’s an simulation to show how models of the disease outbreak can produce similar outputs in terms of mortality curves (reflecting reality) even if you start the models with a range of very different parameters.
“No one knows what fraction of the public is at risk of serious illness. The study merely demonstrates how wildly different scenarios can produce the same tragic pattern of deaths, and emphasises that we urgently need serological testing for antibodies against the virus, to discover which world we are in.
Paul Klenerman, one of the Oxford researchers, called the 68% figure the most extreme result and explained that “there is another extreme which is that only a tiny proportion have been exposed”. The true figure, which is unknown, was likely somewhere in between, he said.
In other words, the number of people infected in Britain is either very large, very small, or middling. This may sound unhelpful, but that is precisely the point. “We need much more data about who has been exposed to inform policy,” Klenerman said."
So if 68% being infected is only one possibility discussed in the paper, why is it (by and large) the only possibility being discussed here and in the media?
The serological tests to show if you have been exposed and recovered are coming on line and there are also studies in Ireland which should hopefully provide us with some answers soon. If a large number of people have been exposed and only a small number have become ill, that would be great news. But we don’t know that is so.
Free movement of people brought us this mess.
As Shengen was responsible for the 1918 Flu pandemic, and syphillis before it.
I have a feeling this kind of exchanges aren’t going to help keep this thread friendly ….
kwlf wrote:
The serological tests to show if you have been exposed and recovered are coming on line and there are also studies in Ireland which should hopefully provide us with some answers soon
Yes! They can’t come soon enough! Whatever the pandemic is a real danger, or just irrational fear, this will mean that already imune people can not only go back to their lives, but also do things like taking care of elderly folk or just visiting. Right?
In the mean time Sweden is looking pretty cool:
“The kindergartens and schools up to grade nine are open, children play in the playgrounds…”
why is it (by and large) the only possibility being discussed here and in the media?
The media likes simple messages… You are right – multiple scenarios have been listed.
I am certain that not a large % of the population is infected, because
But, yeah, this one will be studied for many years. And it won’t be the last one. China won’t change its ways on eating weird animals, and air travel and Chinese travelling to the 1st World are rapidly increasing. We got lucky with SARS, but if SARS had the incubation time and infectioness of this one, it would be much worse.
