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Rise and decline of various types of GA around Europe

MedEwok wrote:

Most gaming takes place in the evening.

Jujupilote wrote:

I see a lot of gaming being done in sunny weather :)

Some people really do need a kick in the whatsit from a time to time to get them out of the house and into the sun…. -been-am there, got the anorak.And sometimes you conveniently need to “forget” to charge the tabletts/phones of your loved ones in order to get there attention for a tiny minute…

Gaming season is on however latest after next week. I am still musing whether to upgrade my home PC to something capable running the new MSFS…

Game season too actually… yummy!

LSZH(work) LSZF (GA base), Switzerland

For Germany, statistics by the LBA, who oversees IFR licenses, show a constant rise in ATPLs over the last 20 years, and pretty stable figures of other license types. ATPLs have risen, most likely because of the rise of commercial air traffic, which usually has a time lag on the demand for fresh pilots from flight schools. The pork cycle type aircraft market is being driven by international air traffic, and the pilot market is being followed by the number of aircraft in operation, with a time lag of 1-2 years.

So, pre-corona, ATPLs increased, and PPL IFR and CPL etc. have been stable.

Now, for VFR licenses in Germany the statistics are less well prepared, because the federal states don’t publish the data and the data that’s being published by the LBA on the total number of pilots licenses basically ends in 2015. Up to that year, the number of PPLs has slightly risen as well. Therefore, from the number of IFR PPLs and the number of all licenses we can make the assumption, with a considerable confidence level, that the actual number of PPL licenses in Germany plus federal states, as of today, has been constantly risen or been stable as well, but definitely not declined.

Which is in line with anecdotal evidence, that the flight schools here in EDLN are basically bursting with students. Which is a problem, because they are basically training themselves into a market with a demand of zero fresh pilots. Whatever will be still alive and kicking after all this mess, will be considerably less than it used to be. Post-corona there will be a dramatic plunge in demand for fresh pilots from airlines, because they either close or shrink the business, and there will be a lot of experienced pilots looking for a job and already are.

At the same time, however, and that’s why I wrote all this, Corona could be the initial spark for people to reconsider their travel preferences, coming to the conclusion it could make sense to take up flying. I have that as anecdotal evidence from around me, people who never talked about it are not talking about maybe learning to fly.

If we assume that existing and fresh pilots are searching for opportunities to fly, I don’t agree that GA will decline. My personal assumption is that prices for aircraft will rise. If I would be an ATPL with absolutely no chance to fly, not even with a pay to fly offer, I would either go into instructing, or into passenger transport with small aircraft.

Last Edited by EuroFlyer at 18 Sep 13:47
Safe landings !
EDLN, Germany

I think the issue with license numbers is many people complete a PPL, but after a few years (or even less) they are gone. It has always been that way. I dont especially have an issue, as it is a great thing to do even for those who dont continue, although inevitably a shame. The only real gauge I guess is hours flown. I think there are lots of pilots flying less and more giving up, but that is just my perception although the earlier stats. I referred to support this being the case pretty much up to the present in the States and the earlier trend in the UK.

ivark wrote:

All PPL schools are full, rentals are busy, people are getting new planes- mostly ultralights and helicopters..

Jujupilote wrote:

I see a lot of gaming being done in sunny weather :)

Fuji_Abound wrote:

I think the issue with license numbers is many people complete a PPL, but after a few years (or even less) they are gone

I think this sums it up. UL for the Sunday flier and helicopters for those who need to get around. The average age is getting older though, specially in UL. The big boom 10-20 years ago iis getting too old to fly, and the younger generation to take over is nowhere to be seen. IMO the ULs have become too expensive, the younger generation don’t have that kind of money.

Flight sims today compared with 20-30 years ago is like night and day. Of course this will draw people away from real flying. I also think those who are gone are playing flight sims instead. I mean, flying a C-172 is only that much fun, and costs a whole lot. Doing combat in DCS or “flying” across the globe with thousands of others is cheap and equally fun. Also much more practical as a hobby.

And there is one more thing. Paragliding, parajumping and other aerial related sports draws lots and lots of young people, and they stay there.

The number of licenses probably is about the same as it always has been. Schools are doing OK, but the communities are withering away. The average age is increasing each day, and there are fewer aircraft flying. Those who fly, fly less before they stop entirely.

The elephant is the circulation
ENVA ENOP ENMO, Norway

Fuji_Abound wrote:

I think the issue with license numbers is many people complete a PPL, but after a few years (or even less) they are gone. It has always been that way. I dont especially have an issue, as it is a great thing to do even for those who dont continue, although inevitably a shame. The only real gauge I guess is hours flown. I think there are lots of pilots flying less and more giving up, but that is just my perception although the earlier stats. I referred to support this being the case pretty much up to the present in the States and the earlier trend in the UK.

@Fuji_Abound in the UK for many it’s hard to find a next rental aircraft after you’ve got your license – for example, an aircraft that can fly IFR/LPV/airways for further development, and ideally slightly better/faster/… than PA28-181. Schools are not interested, and without a plane you are stuffed. Sometimes you can find but it costs close to a twin to fly.

EGTR

arj1 wrote:

Sometimes you can find but it costs close to a twin to fly.

And of course a capable SEP will cost the same as a twin. In fact possibly more. This IMO is part of the problem. Post PPL the journey, if you can afford it is development and skill set building. This all costs because the more skilled you get, the more the aircraft cost goes up. It is like the PPL guy who only wants to fly a Spitfire. He will tell you he has the 1500 quid for his 45 minute flight of a lifetime, but hours and hours will have to be spent on hours building on Chipmunks and Harvards, or whatever before anyone will let you near a Spit. They may never let you near one

This is the main reason the few who can afford it buy their own plane but it is a very costly journey, (cost depending on what it is you want to do). Certainly not for the feint hearted that is for sure..

Fly safe. I want this thing to land l...
EGPF Glasgow

BeechBaby wrote:

And of course a capable SEP will cost the same as a twin. In fact possibly more. This IMO is part of the problem. Post PPL the journey, if you can afford it is development and skill set building.

@BeechBaby Piper Arrow? Three times the cost of PA28-181? Not sure.
If you own a share, it’s different story, variable costs are manageable, but for the renter – wow!
You know, even if you want to hire PA28-161/181 but IFR-capable (GNS+DME+ADF+Mode S), it’s hard to find one…

EGTR

arj1 wrote:

Piper Arrow? Three times the cost of PA28-181? Not sure.

Sorry perhaps I misunderstood. I do not get your point?

Fly safe. I want this thing to land l...
EGPF Glasgow

but IFR-capable (GNS+DME+ADF+Mode S)

This keeps coming up. Part.NCO requires Mode S, IFR GPS, 8.33khz, and VOR for airways. ADF is relevant in a non radar environment if the missed approach requires an ADF. Radar can provide range for the glide slope check.

An Arrow will normally come in around 50% more than an Archer.

A Mode S Garmin 430 Archer is a perfectly good IFR cruiser if your MEA requirement is below FL100. It won’t cope with icing or embedded TS, but that arguably is turbine territory.

Oxford (EGTK), United Kingdom

Meaning that PA28R-200 is more advanced aircraft than pa28-181 but doubt it is would be reasonable to charge for it as for the twin. :)
Even for SR22 – I’m not sure it makes sense to pay for it the same amount of money as for DA42.
And the challenge is that at many places you can’t really hire anything but PA28-161/PA28-181/C152/C172 and even these are not equipped with full IFR panel, some are just VFR-only aircraft.

EGTR
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