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Excellent!!
(Edit for grammar & auto correct)
All I know about this is here :
and here :
Great info.
I especially like this:
So true! Especially with fog.
Agree with above. Cancellations based on return possibility can happen but are rare (in my sort of flying anyway). It would be an ops decision as it would be up to them whether it was better to for example delay downroute or move passengers to a different location first… too many possibilities to say what exactly the outcome would be.
With regards to TAF interpretation, see table:
Peter wrote:
Let me add a different Q: is a flight ever cancelled before departure because the return flight would be likely impossible?
This would not be a pilot decision based on risk but a company decision based on economics. Generally it is no legal reason to deny transportation to booked passengers but I’m very sure it happens.
I once got a flight to Paris canceled due to such a reason as a strike was announced and it was quite probable that the return flight could not depart. I was quite mad at the carrier but finally we agreed on a compensation that was ok – not sure how much that was depending on the color of my frequent flyer card, though…
I cannot remember many trips in 35 years commercial operations which were scrubbed after crew report.I remember having trip scrubbed before leaving home because of hurricanes in the Caribbean and US coastal areas.Ops generally keep abreast of major situations and plan strategically.In my two years on the Vickers Viscount in the eighties I can remember lots of completely lost days and even weekends through fog in the Channel Islands.That operation was intensive utilising up to eighteen airframes and delay recovery was a nightmare such that after one very bad period we gave up trying to get people to their booked destinations and operated a shuttle to Southampton with onward train tickets.Generally though if destination weather is marginal load extra fuel and have a plan B.The modern low cost carriers are much happier to cancel and refund rotations their business model does not like uncertainty and disruption to the the overall flying programme.Charter flights for package holidays are much more likely to operate and consider alternates or delays to achieve customer satisfaction cancellation is not really an option.
Vbr Stampe
Peter wrote:
Let me add a different Q: is a flight ever cancelled before departure because the return flight would be likely impossible?
This would be extremely rare. Even more so with CAT3B equipment.
It would be a decision by operations control. They would factor in the cost of compensation to pax, rebookings, hotels etc..
For domestic (intra european) ops I had one cancellation due to freezing rain at LOWW over a couple thousand flights. All other flights we departed. Must add I never flew anything less than CATIIIA capable.
Peter wrote:
I think the PROB30 / PROB40 (and no other % numbers) is directly to do with AOC procedures.
Exactly. I had always understood it as basically meaning:
PROB30 = possibly, but probably not
PROB40 = probably
It needs to have some binary element to it in order to allow consistent decision making. I don’t know why the 30% and 40% numbers were chosen, possibly as some representation of the risk threshold (risk of a divert) the airlines were prepared to take at some point in the past.
Improving
Average wind within limits. Gusts can be ignored.
Persistent conditions combined with haze, mist, fog, dust, sand & precipitation – applicable, average wind within limits. Gusts can be ignored.
Improving
Must be ignored
Improving
Must be ignored
Very interesting!
Let me add a different Q: is a flight ever cancelled before departure because the return flight would be likely impossible?
I suppose this differs from a lot of such decisions in GA (which in GA are commonly no-go) in that most short haul return flight departures happen very fast after landing.
It would also be very interesting to know a bit about how tafs are interpreted in AOC ops. I was told many years ago that e.g. a PROB30 TEMPO of anything is formally ignored unless it is a persistent condition (fog, perhaps). I think the PROB30 / PROB40 (and no other % numbers) is directly to do with AOC procedures.
