Yes I think that about sums it up.
FWIW, car mfgs want a 15-20 year production life for chips; see e.g. here. But obviously that does not mean that your 2026 car will be usable in 15-20 years’ time. It will no doubt still drive but with reduced functionality. It just means that the car mfg (or Bosch etc) can keep using that CPU for 20 years, in something, so protecting their software investment.
VW sell spares for 20 year old cars but I don’t know whether everything or just some high volume lines.
Anything “cloud connected” is 100% guaranteed to be a long term disaster, but only “us old codgers” worry about “long term”. Everybody else just enjoys today and then moves on. And sends out HTML-only emails 
So I guess that in 2050 sought after vintage cars will be older than 2000 or so because the newer “collectable cars” will have died. While my 1965 Jaguar has plenty of issues, I doubt that the electronics will wear out, because it doesn’t have any – not so much as a diode.
The late 90s were indeed the quality, maintainability and durability peak in many ways.
There is no particular reason that our existing 1999 convertible won’t be operable like it is now in another 27 years. Statistically, I won’t be driving then although both my parents were or still are driving in their mid-90s. We shall see. The car has no ‘avionics’ and looks almost like new inside, outside and underneath. It is also totally reliable, much like my 55 year old plane – which based on the mechanical condition resulting from my ongoing ‘$50K plus paint’ investment also ought to be good for quite a few more years. The future for many who like machinery, and especially those who like durable, maintainable machinery lies in the past. A lot of people ‘get’ this already.
johnh wrote:
The garage told me that the dashboard computer needed replacing. It would cost about $12K but it was irrelevant because Audi wouldn’t supply them any more anyway.
I was told something similar by a Peugeot dealer in Bulgaria. Then I went to a guy who fixes Peugeots. He returned with the "unobtainable 10k$$$) part two days later, put it in, charged me 200$ and the car has ran ever since. Where did he get it? Breakers yard. They had plenty.
I sometimes watch some channels run by people who restore cars which dealerships and contract shops refuse to even look at, mostly by quoting an “you don’t want to do that” or “you can’t afford it” price. Mostly they fix them up with know how and compatible parts for a fraction of the price. Sure some of this is show but not all.
IME, what gets cars in the end is rust, in places too expensive to fix. I had a Toyota Celica for 15 years and it did rust pretty badly in the end. The aircon was regularly fixed with a compressor from a breaker’s yard. My 2012 VW Scirocco has, I am told, zero rust on it, but I am also told to keep it because later VWs do rust. It has cruise control which is wonderfully simple to use but obviously no cameras etc. The RNS510 “satnav+radio” is good for only one thing: playing music from a DVD or a flash stick, or the radio. The satnav is crap, not only because the touch screen is crap. The Chinese now make a direct plug-compatible RNS510 replacement (old was 20cm deep due to the DVD player; new is 2cm) which is probably very good; runs auto android etc. 14 years now so will soon exceed the Toyota record and does 55mpg versus 35 for the Toyota.
Planes are simple in comparison which is just as well, given that the maintenance environment is so tight. I have a spare KLN94
Peter wrote:
And sends out HTML-only emails
The horror!
Breakers yard. They had plenty.
I suspect I could have figured something out, but I was leaving the country anyway. It was a pretty rare car, I think only a few hundred were imported to the US (from Hungary).
The garage was not a dealer, but a local firm that specialised in imports. I’d been using them for years and had 100% confidence in them. I don;t know whether they would have tried the breakers yard path if I had asked them to.
My wife had an Audi A4 V6 which she absolutely loved (so did I). It was 20 years old but just as comfortable and enjoyable to drive or ride in as when it was new. But after years of nursing it though the annual inspection process, finally it needed new catalytic converters. And due to a quirk of California law, they would cost about $6K – way more than the value of the car. If we’d been staying, I suspect we would just have paid up (or found a way to do it in another state).
We were all set to donate (i.e. scrap) the car, much to my wife’s displeasure, when our Mexican gardener agreed to buy it for next to nothing, for his son. I’m quite sure they found a way to make it legal enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is now a taxi somewhere in Mexico.
Here there is a nice business removing the insides of catalytic converters and welding them back up so you can’t tell
johnh wrote:
And due to a quirk of California law, they would cost about $6K
That’s how most cars end up. At some point, repairing sounds like throwing money out the window. You will never get that money back. Only, this isn’t exactly true. You will get your money back in terms of a usable vehicle, and probably for a whole lot less per year than for a new car looking at the total expenditure.
I remember my old BMW. The particulate filter (diesel) needed replacement. Don’t remember the actual cost, but a local shop fixed it at 1/10 of the cost at BMW. The car was approved. Soon after my wife had a mishap in a parking cellar at a mall. Hardly any visible damage, but the main structure was skewed, and the whole car became a thing for the insurance company. With that money I got a small Peugeot van that will stay until it’s rusted to pieces Which of course also is another way cars finally end up. Had to do a serious fix on it a couple of years ago. The register belt and several bearings in that area was replaced. Still worth it, because with that fix it will last at least another 100k km (the rust will take it long before, because I don’t drive it that much, about 6-7k per year). It doesn’t look like much, and none of the neighbors envy that car, but the utility value is like nothing else. Bot for me and my sons who have discover how useful it is
You will get your money back in terms of a usable vehicle, and probably for a whole lot less per year than for a new car looking at the total expenditure.
Exactly. Unless the cost is ridiculous, say 1/3 of the cost of a new car, it is always worth getting your car fixed.
But that is comparing against a new car. A lot of people just run old cars all the time. You can buy 10 year old cars pretty cheaply. 15 year old ones for next to nothing
IME, what gets cars in the end is rust, in places too expensive to fix.
In Northern Europe, yes. Those of us in sunnier climes tend to forget about rust because it hasn’t been a factor for us on cars built in the last 40 years or so. I did run into a young guy with an early 70s BMW CS last night that had plenty of rust and despite it being a very nice example otherwise he has a rust repair project ahead of him. But those cars are renowned for it.
Newer cars locally often look like new underneath when they are 25 years old, no corrosion at all. Arizona is the ultimate for corrosion free purchases, I’ve bought a couple of 20-25 year old motorcycles there with zinc plated screws on the bottom of the crankcase that look as shiny as new.
