That is true but that was the goal? the war is about non-NATO countries, the NATO (US, EU, Turkey) can’t do much other than political & money support via sanctions & arms exports…
I doubt there is any “pro-Russia” in exiting NATO countries? there is some EU skeptics here and there but definitely they are not going back to Russia hands…
Peter wrote:
he can just move on to every other non NATO country, freely.
But you and I know that very probably is not the end game.
Ibra wrote:
can’t do much other than political & money support via sanctions & arms exports…
I’m still wondering, why they have 4 tankers up allmost all the time..
It’s a backstop if things go beyond Ukraine, Putin knows he can’t go further for any NATO countries, the war is about non-NATO countries, this war will be fought by Ukraine and they are on their own when it comes to fight…
The outcomes,
- New pro-Russia government in Ukraine in next weeks that will not last more than a year
- Same government in Ukraine with weak peace agreement that won’t last any longer
Both will be heavy cost for Russia
greg_mp wrote:
The latest fear would be that this crazy guy raise atomic bomb alert, that is going to trigger implication of other countries in the military conflict. I know all air force did raise their alert level, but intercepting an atomic missile is another game…
„ As others have said, this is only meant to scare you, and a media contingent in love with catastrophe fetishism will amplify. They’ve been on alert, it’s how this works. This threat has not increased. The announcement is just state psychological terrorism, Putin’s favorite kind.“
https://twitter.com/summerbrennan/status/1497932292840247300?s=21
@ivark because the US is almost certainly conducting aerial operations inside Ukraine. Those tankers are fuelling whichever stealthy strike aircraft they choose to use.
I watched one of the Twitter videos today, posted by the Guardian. It showed a drive-by of a totally destroyed column of trucks and light armoured vehicles, apparently Russian. That column was not destroyed in a ground battle: every single vehicle was burnt out, there was no evidence of ‘the other side’ at the scene and no evidence of small arms engagements. It was quite obvious to me that it was destroyed by a precision weapon with sub-munitions.
I had similar thoughts..
Putin has made a massive miscalculation with this war. No matter what happens now, this is going to have long term repercussions for him.
He thought this would be all over in a day two. Too fast for the west to react or for his own public to learn the truth. But the Ukrainians has dragged it out. That’s given enough time for the west to react, and for public opinion in the west to force their governments to take less conservative actions.
The ‘connected status’ of the people in Ukraine has also allowed the international press to see how brave and determined they are and the risks they are prepared to take to save their country. It paints the picture of a very noble underdog of people fighting for nothing more than their right to live in peace.
Also the people of Ukraine are very relatable to people in the west. A one news reporter put it, “they are white middle class mothers and fathers with her two children walking down a street in a modern city with their Primark & H&M shopping bags fearing a Russian missile strike.” They are very relatable and are neighbours to the EU. It will be hard for the European public to ignore their plight (as we can see from the protests on European streets).
Ordinary Russians have had time to see through the official new channels. They are starting to see how their country looks to the rest of the world. They have time to have video of Russian tanks burnt out in Ukraine circulating on Telegram and internet reaction. They’ve learnt why sporting events are being cancelled. Maybe they don’t feel safe to react in public at present, but if the Ruppel starts to collapse (as the press would have us believe) and they start to lose their jobs and have difficulty sourcing goods and food, anger will start to build at home over an ill judged war on their neighbours.
Even if Russia negotiates a peace treaty now, Putin still has a lot of problems from this war. It’s hard to see Germany or anyone in the EU wanting to source Russian gas, oil or coal into the future. That was done on the basis of believing it would make Russia less of a threat. That strategy hasn’t worked. I can see the EU upping it’s move away from fossil fuels and significantly reducing the amount of such fuels purchased from Russia. If the EU does that, it will no doubt impose green tariffs on imports based on the amount of fossil fuel used to produce those goods. So other countries won’t be able to use the Russian fuels either or they won’t be competitive.
Also, I can see states such as the USA being very slow to reverse sanctions. Never before had they the opportunity to topple Putin without military action. This might well be the excuse that they need. Leave sanctions in place for a period of time, before slowly easing them, might be enough to create pressure at home for Putin.
I also imagine that the threats of nuclear action must be leading to conversations in the corridors of power about clandestine ways of removing Putin. It would not surprise me in the slightest to see Putin have an accident in the next 18 months. Perhaps an unexplained double engine failure in his jet or a mystery illness. There is no way that there aren’t people in such positions thinking that we can’t allow him to persist if he’s willing to make nuclear threats.
If his own public don’t revolt, or his own parliament don’t revolt, I suspect someone else is considering alternatives.
Also Russia and China have a nervous relationship. They are united by their dislike for the the USA, but aren’t comfortable with their own borders. China has a tiny nuclear force compared to Russia. I suspect they don’t like the idea of Russia feeling it’s ok to make nuclear threats as it’s one area that they don’t size up to Russia. I think Putin’s nuclear threat won’t play out well for him and just alienates him in the longer term. The fact that he had to make such threats just shows that things aren’t going well for him, even though nobody is actually attacking him.
It’s an uncharacteristic miscalculation by him which will have significant post war implications for him.
BeechBaby wrote:
We are expected to believe everything we hear
Maybe you are, but I’m not. On the contrary, my lizards government has made very clear that you are to view everything you read about the conflict critically.
Putin has achieved a heretofore elusive goal – to unite Europe and, amazingly, to ger Germany to make a 180 degree about-face. I just read chancellor Scholz’s speech in full and only a couple of weeks ago none of the plans he outlines would have been possible. Immediate weapons sales to Ukraine, allocation of 100 billion EUR to the Bundeswehr, two new LNG terminals, 2% of GDP for defense a total re-orientation of the policies towards Russia and an effort to end their energy dependence on Russia. He did not mention nuclear energy (which would be the most logical step) because I guess that’s a step too far for the German electorate.
Putin has grossly miscalculated. He thought that the successors to his enablers, namely Merkel, Obama and Trump, would similarly stay quiet or give him a little slap on the wrist. Not happening.
