Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ibra wrote:

We have “plenty” of Neo-Nazi in Europe, Germany, Austria, France, Hungry

And forgive what on earth has that to do with the price of cheese? Dig deeper, just a little bit, as to who funds Mr Volodymyr Zelensky, their strategic ambitions, and the Donbas conflicts.

Sorry @ibra, I am not getting into a spat because this is the way all threads go. Some have a slightly differing and realistic view as to what has been going on and I leave your opinions to, well.. yourself

Ibra wrote:

You gotta be kidding to think that VP war is about this “very noble cause” !

Who mentioned ‘a very noble cause’?

Snoopy wrote:

Thanks. Can I get some more?

I’ve zero, zilch, absolutely no expertise in this area. So my predictions is worth exactly that

But since you asked…..

I don’t see how Ukraine can survive a Russian onslaught in terms of a conventional war. Eventually (it might take weeks) all the cities will be over powered and Russia will “win” the conventional war.

However that will just be the start of the problems for Russia. They will attempt to put in a puppet government. But a government is more than just a prime minister giving orders. It requires a police force and a military to make sure those orders are carried out, and a public either willing to comply with those orders or too scared not to comply.

I don’t think anyone in Ukraine will be willing to follow such orders or laws. And Ukraine is no longer an ordinary population that can be intimidated easily. Apart from their fighting spirit, they are an unusually well equipped & armed civilian population. Imagine a Russian solder with his machine gun patrolling a Ukrainian city. He might as well be wearing a target instead of camo gear. Walk down a street and three will be so many windows from apartment blocks that all it takes is one AK47 from one of the hundred of apartments along the street, to take him out.

There will be lots of western stingers hanging around too, so air support will be very dangerous.

So I think once the Russians “win” the conventional war, they will have a very long drawn out insurgency from very well equipped militia that the Russians simply can’t win. Many lives will be lost on both sides, but the Russian solders lost will quickly mount. This news will spread home and it will cause problems back in Russia.

This could be drawn out over months. Putin will not want to back down, and the Ukrainians will have nothing to lose.

In the mean time things get very difficult economically back in Russia.
Already the currency has fallen by more than 1/3. Most people probably aren’t seeing the real effect of that yet. But give it a few months.

In a few months time, the oligarchs will see their assets and lifestyles severely targeted. At present they aren’t sure how it will play out. But in time they will see assets taken, and not given back. They’ll see that they can’t travel like they did previously. Their wealth will gradually be taken away as the west searches for the hidden assets with increased venom.

The fall in the currency will likely continue. At present Russia is using what reserves it has to prop it up, but that can’t continue for ever. It’s likely to fall significantly further as the real effects of sanctions play out.

This means that the ordinary man in the street in Russia sees their savings disappear. This will also drive massive inflation. Few things can be imported now and those that can cost way more. Prices of ordinary things will become more expensive as the fall in currency combined with a shortage. Many products will no longer be available. Many jobs will be lost because a) western companies pull out (either due to sanctions or because they don’t want to be associated with the regime) and b) Russian companies won’t be able to get the needed parts to continue production.

I saw a video from the “Mentour Pilot” youtube channel the other day where he forecast that due to shortage of parts and expertise, all commercial aviation in Russia will be ground to a halt within 12 months.

The ordinary many in Russia might not know what to believe. But when they see their finances collapse, lose their jobs, their shops half empty and all their sporting events cancelled, they will know that they aren’t hearing the truth. This will likely result in further restrictions in Russia in an attempt to control the population.

I think Putin will be eventually brought down because the Russian people revolt in mass numbers. Then someone will see the writing on the wall and either take Putin out (out of self interest) or have a coup.

But the revolt of the Russian people will not be in support of Ukraine. Rather it will be a revolt over what is happening to them personally in their own lives.

The smartest thing Putin could do now is a quick withdrawal and heavy propaganda on the Russian media to say that he won. This would no doubt create problems for him, but he’d still have a fighting chance of keeping his own people onside who are very scared of him and don’t see an alternative at present. But he won’t do that.

Mooney_Driver wrote:

If a peace agreement could be reached, possibly brokered by someone like China, Ukraine would have to be declared…

So what you are finally saying is that you see no other way to end this war than to grant victory to Russia and have them succeed in suppressing a once sovereign country.

If the “minimal reward” for starting an aggressive war is always that whoever you attack looses its sovereignty and its right to decide on its own fate, what would keep Russia from doing the same with Finnland and Sweden?

Some have a slightly differing and realistic view as to what has been going on and I leave your opinions to, well.. yourself

I think Neo-Nazism is one excuse, likely to be real one and something that spooks Russians and VP “will play it like a song in their ears” but it’s definitely not the driver behind the war, as I said there are better “alternative narratives” on the cause of the war (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova), some were well described 8 years ago like this video here :

Not saying it’s 100% true (as with everything that starts with “it’s X fault”) but this guy still has some valid points, I don’t agree 100% with him that VP is acting rationally as the video suggest or he has a good grasp of situation: he was expecting a quick win, Ukraine president to run away and max 3days to put a dictator in Kyiv, this did not materialise and things backfired and gone t**s up, it was a mistake of invading a well functioning sovereign country & democracy, people don’t give up quickly

PS: this is 1h15min of Michigan Uni Professor lecture on GeoPolitics, it’s very long and boring unlike an average 5min FB/YT video full of doom & gloom songs with conspiracy theories…

arj1 wrote:

Excuse could always be found.

Exactly and VP found plenty. All that was required was a start and end date….

BeechBaby wrote:

There is evidence everywhere of total racism against non whites/ethnics throughout Ukraine but of course this is defo not on message….

Speaking generally, Eastern Europe did not go through the civil rights movement / periods of introspection that we have had in Western Europe and the USA from the 1960s onwards. Did Russia?

Malibuflyer wrote:

So what you are finally saying is that you see no other way to end this war than to grant victory to Russia and have them succeed in suppressing a once sovereign country.

I was asked about scenarios, not whether I like them. And no, grant victory to Russia would mean he doesn’t need any sort of agreement, he takes what he wants and that is it. Any form of peace agreement, whatever it’s nature, will mean concessions. Once that has been achieved, the real work starts.

Russia, even if they will retain some of the occupied land such as Donbass will still be under sanctions, they won’t go away. Then it is the question of getting them out.

The other variant is that Russia is pushed out of Ukraine by force. This only NATO could do. And you know what that means.

Malibuflyer wrote:

what would keep Russia from doing the same with Finnland and Sweden?

Nothing other than the question if NATO would act on those. But the way it looks, after Ukraine Russia will not have the conventional capability to do anything any time soon.

I don’t agree 100% with him that VP is acting rationally as the video suggest

He’s not talking about Putin today. That video is 6 years old.

Mooney_Driver wrote:

not whether I like them

I never presumed that

Mooney_Driver wrote:

Any form of peace agreement, whatever it’s nature, will mean concessions.

Absolutely – but concession is measured on the pre war baseline – not after war. If I steal your wallet, it is not a concession if I say: “Let’s make peace: You get half of your money back and therefore I can legally keep the other half”

Mooney_Driver wrote:

he doesn’t need any sort of agreement, he takes what he wants and that is it.

In my opinion it’s actually worse to sign an agreement that legalizes part of the unlawful claims of russia.
That is actually the masterplan of Putin: "Let’s pretend I want to conquer whole Ukraine (which I can not possibly do anyways) so that everybody celebrates me for “just taking Crimea and Donbas and forbidding the Ukrainians to be a Democracy”