Looking at hours flown has an interesting correlation to financial markets and asset values. Second hand aircraft values went into free fall around 2008 and only stabilised around 2016 when hours flown started to stabilise.
Assuming an aircraft is economically active at around 150 hours per year, then the UK might support 6,000 units?
If this correlation holds, a drop of 15,000 hours, as occurred between 2008 and 2011 would require the second hand export/withdrawn from register market to absorb 1,000 aircraft.
There certainly was a rise in rump mummies in the last recession.
With an ageing pilot population it would be interesting to estimate what is a stable population of GA aircraft for the UK market.
RobertL18C wrote:
Second hand aircraft values went into free fall around 2008 and only stabilised around 2016 when hours flown started to stabilise.
I wonder if that will happen again now, even though the background of the current crisis would actually encourage people to fly individual transport rather than airliners… also fuel appears to be on the way for much lower prices now.
With the increased cost and paperwork involved to do any meaningful cross-country, I totally understand new pilots leave GA after getting their PPLs even faster than before.
I met one of our student pilots at the club the other day. Smart and passionate guy, probably single, totally new to aviation in general. The guy has a good wage in Paris intramuros, with few days off during the week.
We began talking about what next (owning a plane, IFR, real travels). He planned to take friends to Corsica, the typical dream you have as a student PPL 
As someone who was like him a few years ago, I was straight up with him about the costs, time and work needed to really make it.
He’s one of the best suited student pilots ever :
But what can he do ? Expect a few reservation slots on weekend, hoping for good weather.
It’s not the club holding him back (except about night VFR, forbidden in the club), it’s GA in general. Clubs allow on to maintain a PPL at minimal cost (say 2k€ /year) and most members are there for this reason. But the next step up much much higher (like 10-15k€/year).
What he can do is buy a small homebuilt or UL (not a WT9), tinker on them and fly around on weekends.
I am afraid I blew his dreams away, as mine did. 
I know what you mean, jujupilote.
I now have the opportunity to rent a C172R very much hassle-free and whenever I want, which is pretty close to optimal for a renter. Availability is phenomenal. Yet the cost is prohibitive at around 260€/hour wet. With a similar 6k/year budget for flying that gets one only two flight hours a month. Not very impressive.
Week ends are often a problem within clubs. If a club can only afford 1 aircraft, that has to be used for the school, which is usually done at weekends.
So yes there can be a problem with availability at some clubs.
I am surprised that a C172R is so expensive.
How much of this is down to fuel and how much down to the fact that it is very available? This would suggest that it is not doing many hours a year to amortise the costs. Most clubs talk about the need to get a minimum of 400hrs a year from a plane before thinking about investing in another.
At the clubs around here the average cost per hour of a DA40 (equipped for night VFR ) is around €155. A Robin, depending on engine runs from a little less to a little more. An PA28 Archer around €170. Availability on a Saturday or Wednesday afternoons is not good unless booked a week or so in advance. Other times you can usually book the day before.
Most clubs around here also have an ULM which average out between €80 p/h for a Super Guepard to €100 p/h for a CT (can’t remember the full désignation off the top of my head but its the one that looks like a tadpole). Availability is very good except perhaps for a Sunday morning, although that’s because of the availability of one of the instructors.
For the CBIR, 30 of the 40hours required can be done at some clubs. IIRC the Cessna182 at Limoges aeroclub comes in at less than €200p/h including instructor. (But don’t hold me to that as this was before Covid and the recent fuel price rises).
As far as buying an aircraft is concerned IMO there are several problems.
The first is mission. How many GA leisure pilots only have one mission? We might want to take partner and 2 kids or 2 friends on holiday to a far off place in Europe perhaps 3 times a year. Let’s say somewhere between 20 to 30 hours a year.
The rest of the year, what do we do with that expensive asset. Well you must fly a bit to keep the engines from corroding and the avionics from developing problems due to condensation etc. Unless you can afford a heated hangar.
But that is often done alone or with one other, so you might as well have bought a 2 seater.
But let’s say you can find the exact aircraft to suit all your needs.
An older aircraft is going to be the cheapest to buy, usually.
In researching used aircraft prices, over a number of years I have found (and I write of aircraft which are over say 20 years old) there is a correlation between the value of the aircraft now and its price new. So if a PA28 cost, new, say €60,000 in 1979 it would probably sell for €60000 now. Give or take a certain amount for the state of the aircraft and the modernity of the avionics.
To buy a more modern or even new certified aircraft, these days we are talking upward of €250,000. How many can afford to spend that sort of money on anything, other than their house? Let alone the €1m+ for some aircraft.
Even if you can afford to spend that sort of money, the question then becomes, can you justify that spend to yourself.
And if you can justify it to yourself, how many can also justify the regular spend on maintenance, hangarage, insurance etc. And that’s even before you get to fly the thing.
And flying the thing adds more to your costs especially as the price of fuel rises, can we justify the burger run.
Even if we can justify all this cost to ourselves and we can afford it, we end up spending more than the price of a package holiday to Greece on the landing, parking, handling costs of the airfields we need to fly to, clear C+I or get fuel, let alone to be near where we want to fly or can find transport to where we are booked to stay for a week or a few days.
These are some of the negatives to why GA is in decline. But it doesn’t have to be this way.
For anyone who really wants to fly there are many alternatives. An old Jodel or Robin is not going to cost you anywhere near the prices we are talking about above, to buy or run, especially if you do much of the simpler work yourself.
Then there are the homebuilts like the Menestral, Super Emeraude etc. Or the 4 seat MCR 4.
Sadly unless you want to and have the time to build one yourself, buying a pre built a ready built Vans comes in at the same price as a certified Elixir WT9 or some of the other more modern CS23 aircraft fully IR equipped. (I realise that Vans will usually have more power and in the case of the RV6.9 or 7 might be prettier but that’s not the point I am trying to make here.)
Many of these homebuilts and CS23 aircraft, like ULM use the same fuel as you would in your car and a lot less of it than you would use in your old Cessna, Piper or Cirrus. And its cheaper and better for the engine.
The downside is that most airports don’t stock the fuel, so you need to pop down the road to a local garage with one or plastic fuel cans. Light enough going but a bugger returning with full cans.
The latest publicity shows the comparitive costs over a 20 year period of buying a new Elixir versus a Cessna ? The costs are staggeringly different over that period, but one still has to lay out some €300,000 in the first place or commit to IIRC 500hrs a year to get the €40 per hour quoted .
The other big advantage of the modern CS23 aircraft is that you could fly from LFFK via La Rochelle to central UK and back with 2 people and a little luggage for less than you could fly or drive there.
Either way it needs 48hr PN or booking in advance.
So my argument @Jujupilote would be, that if you really enjoy flying and you can hang on in there until the modern aircraft become
2nd or 3rd hand or you are happy to apply for permits or other forms of PPR, €6000 a year can be stretched a long way.
How much would it cost to go from a small airfield in a WT9 to Propriano and back, 2 people on board versus the cost to do the same by car and ferry or other forms of transport. I think that is the message I would give my friend.
Aeroclub flying is boiling these days, this is mostly memberships and training: in my local aeroclub they are investing in few new machines (e.g. Bristell for PPL and DA40NG for CBIR), in two other aeroclubs they bought Katana and Tecnam, the availability of these is super problematic: unless you opt to fly the quirky & rusty D112 that no one likes for 80Eph, even students hates it, everyone fights for the shinny machine, including instructors !
For ‘personal flying’, aeroclubs are simply the wrong place to start, they are bloody expensive to keep 30h/year !
- VFR: there are load of opportunities in ULM/CNSK space: 50k+5k/year is likely enough for personal freedom
- IFR: contacts for rental from owners? buy shares? go outright ownership? starting at 150k+15k/year (to 500k+30k/year?)
Even trips during ralleys, club fly-outs things won’t work easily for someone who is not on his retirement age
Ibra wrote:
Aeroclub flying is boiling these days
This will likely all change starting from next month (heating period, poor weather) and if it goes bad, it will not recover in 2023, but decline further.
Many aeroclub pilots previously had about 500€ left in their monthly budgets, which was their flying budget. In many cases, these 500€ now just evaporated. I guess PPL flying schools and aeroclubs will have a hard time in the next 12 months, which they can’t yet fully imagine.
The decline that some people have seen during Corona (which most others have not seen – to the contrary) was nothing compared to waht might come in the next months.
We live in pretty depressing times, for all those who don’t have a load of money.
Lots has happened all in one go – a “perfect storm” as the Americans call it. Covid, brexit, vaccines, Putin gone crazy → rapidly rising European nationalism, rapidly rising energy prices, all rich countries having to implement expensive programmes for supporting those who can’t afford heating, on top of expensive programmes for supporting people “working” at home and businesses trashed due to covid…
Spending money on GA is a long way down the list.
2023 will be hard for most people.
I agree that with the beginning of November there won’t be much flying. But this will happen anyway because weather is crap and days are short. Yes, due to the war the price for a flight hour has slightly increased but I don’t have the impression that the members in my club will need to decide between flying or heating their house. Admittedly my home base is located in the wealthier regions of Germany but I believe that at least in Germany pilots are usually coming from the can afford a-house-plus-two-cars-plus-two-vacations-for-the-family-group. This is certainly different in France and in the glider and UL scene.
On the other hand even if my flying is totally within budget (not enough time) and that the difference per hour is actually not that bad, the thought alone about 4€ per litre of AVGAS makes me cringe.
Also the government grants for the upcoming heating period have recently been paid out. This means 600€ (between me and my wife and more than the total amount I’m going to spend for heating within the next year) more in my flying budget for this year. (I know that eventually I will pay it back via taxes.)
Peter wrote:
We live in pretty depressing times, for all those who don’t have a load of money.Lots has happened all in one go – a “perfect storm” as the Americans call it. Covid, brexit, vaccines, Putin gone crazy → rapidly rising European nationalism, rapidly rising energy prices, all rich countries having to implement expensive programmes for supporting those who can’t afford heating, on top of expensive programmes for supporting people “working” at home and businesses trashed due to covid…
Spending money on GA is a long way down the list.
2023 will be hard for most people.
That sums it up pretty accurately, I’m afraid. These aren’t good times by any normal measure, and certainly not for a luxury activity as GA (unless you have enough money to not care about anything).
As a renter pilot I actually worry the school I rent from could go bust from lack of activity. While my own flying budget is still primarily limited by time, not money, that will be less applicable to others.
Clipperstorch wrote:
Also the government grants for the upcoming heating period have recently been paid out. This means 600€ (between me and my wife and more than the total amount I’m going to spend for heating within the next year) more in my flying budget for this year. (I know that eventually I will pay it back via taxes.)
Woah? How do you heat your home? We pay 300€/month for gas alone, and our home is not insulated that badly (build in 1999).
