“you did pick the time span quite carefully”
I did :)
The date I picked is the date Cameron outlined the changes he wanted with EU and in the UK’s relationship and said that if he got re elected he would hold a referendum. This was early 2014, I mistakenly said 1.5 years ago in my previous post but meant two and a half.
Anyways, its been downhill for the UK currency since then. Of course you cannot just blame the referendum. There are loads of other factors, however it’s hard to deny the correlation between keys events and moves with the currency. See for example, events such as Boris Johnson announcing siding with the brexit, certain poll results, the vote result and even todays drop after May’s talk of hard brexit.
“Interestingly this has probably knackered the US to Europe ferry business, except at the high end.”
They might be ferrying the planes in the other direction :)
My point for the poster is that currently is not the best time to buy from the US or euro land (similar drop although not as dramatic) and its probably cheaper to buy from the UK.
At today’s rate of 1.29 GBPUSD is indeed substantially below its 1957 record of 2.86, but comfortably above its 1985 low of 1.05.
For the past 30 years Cable has generally wobbled up and down around 1.5, so I’m inclined to say that the present wobble is irrelevant to any soundly based business or indeed to the private purchase of a long-term asset from which one expects to derive enjoyment.
On the OP’s question, it’s anybody’s guess. There seem to be more (or louder?) people today predicting the demise of the European Union than I recall predicting the fall of the FSU when my CAP 10 was made but that doesn’t make today’s doomsayers right. The EU may not last a thousand years, but it’s doing a whole lot better than the previous effort.
geekyflyer wrote:
My point for the poster is that currently is not the best time to buy from the US or euro land (similar drop although not as dramatic) and its probably cheaper to buy from the UK.
I think in many cases the far greater availability of quality aircraft in the US outweighs relatively small FX changes.
I agree, though the obvious difficulty of doing a prebuy in the USA and the resulting pressure to buy whatever it turns out to be, works against that 
I’m surprised that there hasn’t been more export of ‘interesting’ European and UK aircraft to the US over the last couple of years… but OTOH I think the US aircraft market is soft, with a lot of aircraft slowly decreasing in value by holding constant prices during inflation. A Pitts two seater in the US sells for the same price it did in 1996. No need to look very far to find something interesting.
Re exchange rates, If you don’t pick the GBP/USD exchange rate time span carefully at all you see this, over a little more than a lifetime. The long term trend is driven by something more than EU issues, which are just a bump in the road. I think the last 30 years of relative stability show the world is getting smaller, and maybe the long term decrease in GBP value has stopped.
I am operating a G-reg aircraft from a base in continental Europe. Does anyone know whether I should expect possible issues with its EU VAT status after Brexit? Will I need to get a certificate of free circulation in advance of the cut-off date?
Ultranomad wrote:
I am operating a G-reg aircraft from a base in continental Europe. Does anyone know whether I should expect possible issues with its EU VAT status after Brexit? Will I need to get a certificate of free circulation in advance of the cut-off date?
You can’t get a certificate like that any more. Honestly, no-one knows what is going to happen.
I would think if EU VAT has been paid, Brexit won’t affect it but there are no certainties in this space right now.
One possibly relevant thread is here.
I don’t know of any way to get a certificate of free circulation (for a G-reg especially) short of declaring the VAT on the current market value, and paying that VAT. A big waste of money obviously. The old system where you could get the certificate just by submitting various documents to HMRC finished c. 2005. I got one of the last few.
But equally I don’t see how brexit would mess up the VAT-paid status, because few laws are retrospective and the plane was (presumably) EU VAT paid at the time of brexit.
No aircraft acquired during the period in which the UK was a EU member should be liable for EU VAT. Only transactions after the UK leaves the EU will. The state of registry is irrelevant.
I have a new Cirrus SR22T arriving next week.
It will come in on an export C of A on the N reg.
Considering Brexit potential complications should I leave it on the N or put it on the G as I originally planned.
I have both FAA and UK EASA licences with IR
Thanks
