There seems to be a consensus that those people who have not lost their jobs (perhaps 90% of the population) have plenty of money sloshing around – because they aren’t travelling and aren’t spending it.
That’s probably true. But lots of districts and even countries are dependent on people travelling. People do spend money though. In Norway the sale of boats has reached all time high, and the same for mobile homes/caravans and outdoor activity stuff.
People don’t spend money on going abroad. Instead it is spent at home. But, that could change any minute. Already, holidays for 2021 are almost sold out.
Peter wrote:
And a lot of them are doing part time jobs, which is basically fraud but the govt accepts a high level of fraud now in order to prevent an economic collapse
Not so. From the outset the government made it clear (at least to this employer) that furloughed workers could take temporary jobs whilst furloughed. They were only forbidden from doing work for their existing employer.
There seems to be a consensus that those people who have not lost their jobs (perhaps 90% of the population) have plenty of money sloshing around – because they aren’t travelling and aren’t spending it.
And even those furloughed on 80% of 2k/month (the UK number) are often doing well because they are getting paid without incurring travel costs. And a lot of them are doing part time jobs, which is basically fraud but the govt accepts a high level of fraud now in order to prevent an economic collapse. A lot of the grants to businesses and self employed are used up to buy assets while the person carries on working.
So a lot of money is building up in some areas, and this will be used for asset purchase. So I don’t see a collapse in GA prices.
172driver wrote:
That said, if there is a significant second wave this may well turn catastrophic. In short – wait and see. We’ll know more by Christmas or early 2021.
Which is fully to be expected seeing how people completely have lost all discipline once the lockdowns were opened… not to speak of protest crowds and other similar happenings.
MedEwok wrote:
What is everyone’s guess on how GA aircraft prices will develop? If an economic slump occurs, they should fall again, no?
Certified airplane prices will stay where they are as long as certification and insurance costs are the same and no mass production in numbers like cars can be achieved to offset against the development costs.
If the economy slumps, so will the manufacturers and simply die out.
We have to face it: private light GA is completely non-essential in crisis times. And many people will simply stop doing non-essential things if they run out of money or have the perception of running out.
The other aspect is the used market: There a slump may well occur and get the prices down.
MedEwok wrote:
What is everyone’s guess on how GA aircraft prices will develop? If an economic slump occurs, they should fall again, no?
One would think so, but then there’s that:
WilliamF wrote:
My boat, good starter boat that it was, sold for a 35% profit last week. I had it for 4 years so I expected to loose money. Things that are real and local… are now very valuable. Be it a dog, camper, convertible, bicycle or boat. People are spending money like never before.
I think it’s too soon to tell. Here in the US a lot of people are having a very good pandemic, thank you very much. Stock market roaring ahead, interesting tax breaks for high earners hidden in the CARES act, recent employment figures up a lot, etc. Many (most) people who have lost their jobs are not really the core GA demographic. It – so far – mostly hit those at the bottom of the scale hardest, think restaurant employees. That said, if there is a significant second wave this may well turn catastrophic. In short – wait and see. We’ll know more by Christmas or early 2021.
My guess is economic slump and drop in prices for a few years.
Company failures are just beginning. Swissport Handling in Belgium bankrupt, leading to problems. Contractor on a major upgrade at Aberdeen Harbour pulling out , blaming Covid-19. Some Mall operators also in trouble, as well as some of their store tennants not reopening.
I don’t think so. What will happen is that existing aircraft increases in value, relatively speaking. Only an economic boom will make new aircraft more “affordable”. More UL, more oldies, more experimental. The current trend will increase in speed.
What is everyone’s guess on how GA aircraft prices will develop? If an economic slump occurs, they should fall again, no?
