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PA28R G-EGVA missing UK to Le Touquet (and AAIB discussion)

There’s videos on Facebook of some significant weather at around the same time. Getting caught in something like that (IMC… icing… convective spouts) at 9am on a relatively sunny Saturday has the potential to go very wrong very fast. Would explain lack of radio call too.

Right; and if you try to fly below – the old technique for going under bad wx, short of a CB with lightning – you get busted by the CAA for flying in those 1500ft DAs.

Looking at the rate of climb in that FA track, I am sure it was an intentional climb, of a similar VS as their initial climb before enroute. They levelled off around 7000ft, which with a QNH of 1022 is close enough to them trying to avoid getting busted for the FL075 CAS – regardless of whether they set 1013 on the altimeter or not. But they would not have been in VMC on top at 7k. If this is right, it’s another example of the virtual impossibility of getting a popup IFR clearance in NATS owned airspace.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

Looking at the rate of climb in that FA track, I am sure it was an intentional climb, of a similar VS as their initial climb before enroute.

It’s not a turbo Arrow so I don’t think it can manage the same V/S from 5k up to 7k as it did getting to 5k on departure. And even then, why the descent before the climb?

If it’s weather then it’s desperately sad and unnecessary. You just turn around and go back the way you came. As @Airborne_Again says, the channel becomes irrelevant.

EGLM & EGTN

Indeed, the tracks are deliberately down to 1500ft and up to 7000ft but I doubt climbing with CAS clearance would have sorted the issue? they need +FL160 and the descent strategy is getting tricky with TRA & DA now

I have flown cross English Channel all year along in all sort of weather, back then you can avoid as you wish but this seems impossible now unless you fly Margate to Ostend or SFD to DPE (short of setting mayday 7700 or selfishly switching ALT OFF while “you deal with it”, after all you gotta do what you gotta do with such s***y ATS system), I am sure the guy was talking to London Info who don’t have a radar and zero tools to help him other than the reminder to remain outside controlled airspace or call mayday (like all pilots do when getting stuck)

I think those RA & TRA makes staying VMC tricky for LeTouquet & Calais unless one is happy with long crossing to stay away

Of course, it’s best to stay at home or avoid or turn back if weather is iffy but we are talking en-route weather which likely not visible? and anyway zillions of aircraft have flown to LeTouquet that day, maybe worth looking at what they did to cope with weather while sandwiched between TRA/DA and LTMA?

Last Edited by Ibra at 04 Apr 08:19
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

why the descent before the climb?

The usual thing: try “below” and either it is way too close to SFC or you realise the CAA will bust you on the < 1500ft which must be heavily radar monitored.

I doubt climbing with CAS clearance would have sorted the issue?

No way to get cleared into the 1500ft DA or into the FL075 LTMA; definitely not in a hurry.

Also – and they would not have known this, especially if already in IMC – no way to climb to say FL150 in a hurry.

London Info who don’t have a radar

They do but aren’t allowed to reveal it on the radio, because they are FISOs and the ATC unions would go berserk.

it’s best to stay at home or avoid or turn back

The old psychology debate…

The Q remains: was it loss of control in IMC, and/or a structural failure? We won’t know (the real radar track) until a report comes out. Presumably it will be AAIB, not BEA which will take for ever.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Peter wrote:

The Q remains: was it loss of control in IMC, and/or a structural failure? We won’t know (the real radar track) until a report comes out. Presumably it will be AAIB, not BEA which will take for ever.

Did the SAR find anything?

EGTR

I flew Shoreham to LeTouquet on Saturday morning about an hour behind EGVA. Cloud base off Seaford was about 4000, with tops looking like they were in the CTA , OAT at around 3500ft was about -15, LFAT METAR observing occasional TCU/CB and weather radar showing a line of isolated but heavy showers along the FIR boundary.

Trying to fly above the clouds would have meant a high likelihood of being stuck in IMC at the top of a layer of freezing CU and no way to spot the embedded stuff, so decided to fly below. Had to descend to 3500, then 2500 to stay beneath, and glad I did as it meant I could see and avoid two dark, heavy snow showers where the clouds came down to sea level. Had I been in the cloud layer at 4000, run into one of these cells and tried to descend, it wouldn’t have worked.

Looks like there’s a gap in FR24 and FA coverage at that point of the channel, because my flight also disappeared in the same place (GBCCE) , as did two others we were with (GTAAT and GKEBV). So I suspect that we’ve yet to see how EGVA’s trip actually ended.

Here’s my flight track just below the cloud base and steering around two heavy showers.

My flight disappearing

Last Edited by Nb at 04 Apr 08:40
Nb
United Kingdom

I always carry a liferaft (any cross country flight for us involves an over water crossing). I use the SEMS liferaft service, and swap it out every year at the plane’s annual (and we try to ‘sweat the asset’ a bit, we also carry it when sailing).

The sea can be pretty cold even in the summer – I go swimming in it, and while some days you can stay in for an hour (e.g. during a heatwave), other days you’re shivering within 20 minutes. I wouldn’t like to be bobbing around this time of year in the sea waiting for the RNLI.

Having said that, the only person I know personally who ditched in the Irish Sea never got into her raft – she unpacked it and inflated it, but the rescue helicopter arrived before she got in (and before the plane sank). But there’s no guarantee you’ll get picked up that fast.

Other things I look for are ships and sailing boats, if I had to ditch I’d try to ditch near a small boat if possible. I have a waterproof marine VHF handheld that (sometimes I remember to) I carry.

Andreas IOM

Thanks for the details Nb, I guess they were IMC very high way before entering the bad patch, they did not become VMC on descent and climb (and they did not deviate laterally), the cloud-base was very high but some clouds did vertically extend all the way to the water and 15kft…

I have flown near Dieppe midday, it looked ok with plenty of room except tiny spots
I did not expect much convection at 9am with temp & dew near 0C
A similar encounter would have surprised anyone !

Nb wrote:

because my flight also disappeared in the same place (GBCCE) , as did two others we were with (GTAAT and GKEBV). So I suspect that we’ve yet to see how EGVA’s trip actually ended.

I recall FR & FA tracks tend to disappear on some French TXP codes, I don’t recall which ones in the 6001-6177 range

Last Edited by Ibra at 04 Apr 09:27
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

OAT at around 3500ft was about -15

That, with rain around, is potentially really nasty: freezing rain.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Some pics from my passengers. Mid channel about 1215Z

Last Edited by Nb at 04 Apr 10:50
Nb
United Kingdom
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