EGKK 062300Z 0700/0806 03009KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0700/0723 BKN013 PROB40 TEMPO 0707/0712 6000 -DZ BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 0723/0806 BKN013
EDLW 061700Z 0618/0718 05009KT CAVOK BECMG 0700/0703 05004KT BECMG 0707/0710 27005KT BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0714/0718 3500 -DZ BKN009
It looks very much like icing conditions, and possibly quite nasty with the -DZ and the low temps.
Ordinarily, the MSLP charts would be a GO.
Out 7th, back 8th.
Any views?
I would go but I am not you and am not in a TB20. Strikes me as a typical cover all bases forecast.
Do not seem that bad.
Peter, wouldn’t full-TKS be more useful than full-LPV in your case ?
Why on earth would you want to go to Dortmund?
Have a friend there! I fly to meet nice people or to see nice places, or both.
I am not going. The layers look like they might be too thick and the surface temps mean I would be landing with probably a lot of ice. Here in the UK the wx is perfect but over Germany it looks like tops around FL100 right now, so a thick icing layer. Very hazardous for a not fully deiced aircraft IMHO.
Frustrating, since the 0000Z ascents bear no relation to the current IR image so the tops showing on that look like irrelevant high altitude cloud. But I can’t get any useful vertical cloud data for tomorrow. And I need to be back Monday.
Yes – TKS is much more useful than LPV 
Have a friend there! I fly to meet nice people or to see nice places, or both.
The best reasons
I have a feeling the post-mortem on this decision will be “I should have $&^(^&^& well gone”
Tues/Wed looks nice however.
However, a good decision not to go. Looking forward meeting you soon in North Rhine-Westphalia or in the UK!
The trip to Dortmund would have worked today I guess, still CAVOK conditions in the vicinity of EDLW. But the return leg tomorrow should be challenging with light snow and low clouds in the TAFs. Monday morning quarterbacking….
Peter, as you know, much better a regretted decision not to go, than a regretted decision to go.
Or as Robert De Niro says in Ronin “Where there is doubt, there is no doubt.”
