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Best Practical Aviation Weather Course, and how far ahead can one forecast weather?

WhiskeyPapa wrote:

Are there any courses that address weather from the practical standpoint of a x-country pilot, both IFR and VFR, with a focus on sources and interpretation?

Not for Europe AFAIK.

I spent some time here for general knowledge about weather phenomena applied to aviation. I found it very useful and worth to look at. May be it is not what you are looking for.
Pilotworkshop – Weather

Anyway, you need to search for European weather sites and information after having followed these concepts to be able to apply what you have learned.

France

There is the Weather School in the UK who run an aviation course divided into two parts. I have attended Part 1 with Part 2 due in September. Part 1 was excellent, concentrating on selecting reliable met data sources and then how to interpret weather charts, radar, TAF, METARS to build up a go/no-go decision process.

The actual weather on the day was used as a teaching exercise and was analysed for the type of flying the attendees did. This varied from flying a SSDR at one end to high altitude IFR at the other.

A very lively and enjoyable course with a lot of information covered in a short 6 hours. Simon the principal is a PhD qualified meteorologist who has also been a TV weatherman.

Aviation Weather School Part 2 is more analytical, interpreting basic data such as Skew-T to enable a level of self-forecasting as opposed to self-briefing.

http://weatherschool.co.uk/aviation/aviation-weather-part-1-beyond-the-ppl/
http://premium.weatherweb.net/

.

Lydd

Posts 5 10 and 12 all refer to the same course, by the former forecaster

FWIW I do not believe “self forecasting” has any value. You will never out-forecast the people who do this 24/7 for a living. And if you do, it is due to pure luck. They have access to 3D models which, in Europe, are nearly all closely guarded and secret, and are kept that way to support 3rd party wx forecasters who pay hefty licensing fees to the national met offices, in return for a license to re-sell the data in various packages e.g. forecasts to farmers, DIY/gardening stores, etc.

WhiskeyPapa – I won’t have much time over the next week (holiday) to do anything detailed but let’s run with this and see what everybody else thinks.

Are you really landing at all five airports on the same day, or just doing a flight with the three middle ones as waypoints? Landings bring uncertainty; a lot of VMC-on-top flying cannot be done with intermediate landings, due to icing or other wx preventing a climb back up.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

@Peter

The middle ones were waypoints, BUT they actually reflect a real route, still not completed. The plane is at LYPG and I return tomorrow to hustle it to LYNI and LYSP (3rd attempt)

Two weekends ago (after delightful Sicilian romp) I set out to Rome Urbe (to catch a commercial flight out of Fiumicino) along the Tyrrhenian Sea, but had to divert to Lamezia because of low ceilings and visibility where I left the plane until last weekend. I returned after 5 weekdays of work, and set out for Brindisi for AVGAS and passport control on a Saturday, to be followed by departure for LYNI or LYBE. Weather difficult around Lamezia but pretty good along the south coast of Sicily and Calabria

BUT Brindisi would not allow me to buy AVGAS without a VAT number. I own my plane directly (not through a company) and I am not an EU resident. (This BTW is a first. I had no problem at Brindisi 1 year ago. “New rule” they said.). I explained I’m happy to pay VAT and would not be filing to offset it against VAT paid me. I pointed out that the demand to show a VAT number should actually exclude any non-EU resident from making any purchases in Italy, including Chinese, American and Russian tourists, and that the fiscal authorities should be delighted by my presence. But no AVGAS without a number. It took me a couple hours to sort this one out (a real VAT number was provided). But then 3 commercial carriers in a row landed and required refueling. The weather was good, but I had been fried on the tarmac, plus I was worried about the closing time at NIS (LYNI).

So I decided to fly the next day, but he weather got worse. I made it as far as LYPG (with a late start dictated by NIS opening hours—they were good in that they said I could land 90 minutes before official opening) but there were thunderstorms en route with jets diverting right and left. An hour earlier and I would have been fine flying over and between early stage buildups.

I threw in the towel and landed at LYPG (took commercial flight out).

Tomorrow I continue. LYBE (24 hour ops) denied me a slot because of traffic (offered Monday). This means a late departure for LYNI (more time for thermal development over rough terrain), but that’s real life VFR x country flying. I feel this year I’m being punished after boasting about successful completions through all of 2017.

When I include the cost of last minute commercial flights, I realize a turboprop might be cheaper! :)

Last Edited by WhiskeyPapa at 18 May 15:40
Tököl LHTL

I wonder if/when we will do something on this.

Obviously lots of people would find it interesting.

Maybe on the Elba fly-in in September?

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

The course in post#12 looks interesting. It might be worthwhile especially for VFR pilots.
I often watch this Youtube video:

EDMB, Germany

I thought this was a good thread to post this.

This arrived on email

Dear Texel Fly-In participant,
We have been looking to the weather this upcoming weekend. We had to make a very difficult decision. A number of participants already cancelled their participation due to the weather forecast during the Fly-In.
Unfortunately the last forecast of the Schiphol Met Office showed a low pressure with rain starting Friday afternoon and continuous rain during the Saturday with low temperatures and a possibility of thunderstorms. Camping at the airport in possible thunderstorms is too dangerous. After consultation with our organization partners, we decided to cancel the fly-in for the safety of all participants. We feel very sorry for that, but we do hope we will meet again 23-25 August 2019 with a special program.

MSLP:

Windy.com (cloud/rain):

I wonder where that forecast came from?

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

Sarcasm: looking at the two pictures and the text, I guess Schiphol sits north Italy or in Hell ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell,_Norway

Last Edited by Ibra at 22 Aug 22:57
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

Looking at Ogimet is it really surprising they cancelled a VFR flyin? These things cost money to organise – why take the risk? Low cloud base forecasted and 20kts cross wind.

Last Edited by Peter_Mundy at 23 Aug 11:59
EHLE / Lelystad, Netherlands, Netherlands

To me it looks like “A number of participants already cancelled their participation due to the weather forecast during the Fly-In.” was a key factor, which always happens unless the wx looks CAVOK. Especially for camping, but camping is always wx dependent. The decision was made so many days ahead that they could not have had wx data which I have ever seen before.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom
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