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Weather advice Teuge EHTE Carpentras LFNH 9/8/19

Next week I have a holliday planned with the family. They will be flying with Ryanair tomorrow, and I was hoping to fly out myself tomorrow afternoon. I need to be in the office tomorrow morning, initially I filed and Z flightplan from Teuge. Autorouter generated a westerly route through Belgium, via Brussels, Chièvres, Reims, Troyes and then straight to my destination, more or less. By the looks of it that route will take me right through some severe weather, a coldfront with all the trimmings. So I’ll cancel that.
I was thinking to depart tomorrow on a VFR flightplan around 13:00 LT and fly through Germany instead. The coldfront is approaching, but ahead the weather will be flyable with cloudbases up to 5.000 ft, and around 16:00 in the Ardennes, Luxemburg and the north east of France very heavy CB’s should develop, but I guess I will have cleared that by the time it gets ugly. I have an IR, the Mooney will need around 3:30/4:00 hrs to get me where I need to be. My fear is that the CB’s will develop more quickly and at some point I wished I’d boarded Ryanair instead.

Anyone have any advice, insights or suggestions?

EHTE, Netherlands

Bobo wrote:

My fear is that the CB’s will develop more quickly and at some point I wished I’d boarded Ryanair instead.

I was planning to fly to Lille from the UK tomorrow Friday afternoon at 2pm and then go south
I just cancelled that plan and will be flying somewhere else to the west,

I think it is a good day to fly VMC (and stay VMC) with as many stops in the middle to check how that nasty weather evolves…

Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom

I recommend using windy.com and particularly the ICON model.

The Rain/Thunder item is the best one for this purpose.

If there is convective wx forecast, it is usually much better to fly in the morning.

Administrator
Shoreham EGKA, United Kingdom

There’s weather group on Telegram where some of us participate and share opinions. I think you can join using link below and get some quick feedbacks.

https://t.me/joinchat/DcAZWBXBHZG46bkM7W9NgQ

LDZA LDVA, Croatia

Thank you for the replies. The weather was too severe, and I was glad I didn’t go yesterday. I did fly out this morning and despite the strong headwind over The Netherlands, Belgium and a bit of France had a good flight.

EHTE, Netherlands

I did give it a go on Friday late afternoon routing west/south from London to Tours where I picked my wife instead of Lille as that patch moved away, it was shiny VMC south but hell grey to the east and very windy/bumpy, so I flew that leg in 3h instead of 1h45 (I was flying 85kts GS, with 50kts wind and slow flying the Mooney to 130IAS, I think the rusty AP did not like it and went U/S)

I don’t think my nervous passenger would have enjoy it, so we stayed the night at Tours before heading south to Bergerac the next day…

Last Edited by Ibra at 11 Aug 09:42
Paris/Essex, France/UK, United Kingdom
6 Posts
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