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Perspectives - getting more risk averse over time

I was recently contemplating a trip from my home airfield near Stansted (EGSS) to Guernsey Channel Islands. This would take about 2.5 hours in my Robin DR400.

Now you may have noticed this in yourself, that as you get older, you become more risk adverse so I’m thinking about my passenger in the RH seat who is not a pilot and trusts me to know what I am doing. When flying with non pilots, I do feel the responsibility placed on my shoulders. So weighing up the risk/reward, I’m looking at 85 miles over the sea from St Catherines point Isle of Wight to Guernsey. On top of that, it is my experience that non pilots take it as fact, that if you set a date for a trip then it will happen. When it doesn’t due to weather or other reasons, then you get the frost treatment.

Weighing all that up, I look at alternatives. Lets fly commercially so that we know we are going on the due date. There are no flights to Guernsey from either Luton or Stansted, so it’s a 2 ¼ hours drive to Southampton airport plus time for the big airport hassle.

My next thought; if we are driving to Southampton area, we could get a ferry to Guernsey, with the added benefit that we would have the use of our own car whilst there. Do some research and discover the ferry takes 9 hours to get to Guernsey. That’s day one of a five day break gone in travelling, the same coming back.

Suddenly a 90kt Cessna 150 seems speedy!
It’s all a matter of perspectives.
EG 2023

Propman
Nuthampstead , United Kingdom

Do the IR?

Adds a new perspective 😉

Germany

Did the IR many years ago, and did my renewals for 33 years until it was mandated that we had to have a big investment in panel mounted approved GPS.
The truth is, 95% of private pilots want to fly when the weather is VMC and after a few encounters with TS, you soon realise that the IR is not the panacea that the low hours “I wish I had an IR” pilot thinks it is. As an exercise in accurate flying, then IR training is great, but it’s no help if you get a duff engine over the sea.

Propman
Nuthampstead , United Kingdom

Do you carry a raft on such flights and have you done any training in using it in anger?

Mainz (EDFZ) & Egelsbach (EDFE), Germany

Propman wrote:

I’m looking at 85 miles over the sea

Serious question, and I don’t have a map of the airspaces – but why not go along the french coast? It adds a bit of distance, to be sure, but if it makes you feel safer?

Berlin, Germany

By all means follow Boscomantico’s advise for flights over water.

If I read this correctly, this is not so much about the actual statistical risk and mitigation strategies that you can rationalize.

This is more about a feeling of perceived risk and management of the associated pressure together with the other pressures normally associated with a trip on a given date.

My personal strategy to such a situation would be to lower the pressure. The committed date is always a significant factor and the easy out is being flexible on dates. If that is not compatible with the associated commitments then I would have a plan B.

Plan B may inevitably involve extra cost. Depending on how badly you need to be there, it may involve an alternate means on transport to the same location or an alternate plan altogether perhaps to a different location for the relevant dates. The idea is to be mentally prepared for plan B so that as you get closer to the date and wx is confirmed, you can feel happy to pick A or B as required, rather than making it a big disapointment.

Years ago, I had planned a trip to Venice in February for what ended up being an unforgettable opera experience with my wife and a couple of friends. When, a few days ahead, it seemed obvious something was not working out (I don’t recall if wx-wise or airplane-wise), we bought airline tickets and flew commercial instead.

Last Edited by Antonio at 07 Jul 07:27
Antonio
LESB, Spain

I totally get it and share the same feeling regarding flying with pilots vs. non-pilots.

Having said that, I fly more non-pilots. The strategy I use is two-fold:

- I make it very clear that there’s a high chance of cancelling the flight. Usually, people are ok with it because a) they are flying for free, and b) they don’t want to be in bad weather as well.
- I always book places where I can cancel up to the day before. For example, Le Touquet has a couple of Accor hotels (Ibis and Novotel) that allow cancellation the day before. For me, places like Le Touquet are great because they offer you a lot of flexibility.

My plane B never gets me to the destination I had in plan A. I just don’t go. That’s because I know I would be driving my car and saying out loud, “I could do this in one hour if I was flying”.

Instead, I just relax and make plans for another day or take my passengers on a local flight. And if the passengers get frustrated, their loss. Having said that, I never had that problem.

EGSU, United Kingdom

I’ve always been risk adverse, so it’s not something new for me. But living on an island, it’s a risk I have to take for longer flights.

That said, I’ve never committed to a 5 day trip on a specific date with a non-pilot. That would indeed add a lot of pressure. Actually thinking about it, that’s only technically correct. I have done week end trips with a non-pilot, but it was a very close friend who has flown with me many time and understands the vagrancies of the weather.

As for the life raft, I agree that it should be carried (and briefed) but I once did some training with it.
This was in a nice warm, calm swimming pool, with a raft with a step to help you get in. There were about 20 of us doing the training. I managed to get in no problem. But I’m small and light. I think out of the 20, only about 3 of us managed to get into the raft initially.

After a little training, everyone managed it, but most really struggled. And this was in a warm, calm swimming pool. I very much doubt that many would make it in the freezing cold, rough, open ocean, unless they were able to step in from the wing.

EIWT Weston, Ireland

Fernando wrote:

My plane B never gets me to the destination I had in plan A. I just don’t go.
Same here. Since I’m in a relationship, it’s certainly not the end of flying, but I do a lot more trips with PAX, like with my girlfriend, family, and friends. They do like flying, but also want to go places. And if I go solo, I have some mission, like visiting family/friends, business appointments or pure flight training. If circumstances like bad weather don’t permit the flight, it gets canceled. Plan B is only an option when going on a multiple-day trip. Otherwise, there is no plan B, except for safety reasons after being airborne. As long as I’m on the ground, it’s often either plan A or nothing. At least when it comes to the destination.
Switzerland

dublinpilot wrote:

After a little training, everyone managed it, but most really struggled. And this was in a warm, calm swimming pool. I very much doubt that many would make it in the freezing cold, rough, open ocean, unless they were able to step in from the wing.

I often think about this. Is it fair to say that, in reality, the raft won’t help most passengers?

Please don’t get me wrong, I do carry one (after reading some threads in this forum). But I wonder if my two daughters could ever reach it if I became incapacitated.

EGSU, United Kingdom
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